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AFL Sunday Specials: Demons, Tigers to get season defining wins

Fri, Aug 18, 8:19am by Head Editor

Sunday’s action starts with a must-win game for Melbourne, who take on Brisbane at the MCG. St Kilda then host North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium before Richmond’s top-four hopes go on the line against Fremantle in the west.

Melbourne v Brisbane, MCG, Sunday August 20, 1:10pm AEST

The Demons may have taken a huge step towards their first finals since 2006 with a win over the Saints last Sunday, but it will all mean nothing if they can’t beat the cellar-dwelling Lions at the MCG this Sunday.

That win is priced at $1.16, with the Lions in slightly from their big odds of $5.50 to $5.30 to cause a massive boil over. The line is in out from 33.5 to 38.5 points.

Contested possession is an area where the hosts will have a massive advantage, Simon Goodwin’s charges are ranked first in the league in this area, while their opponents in this one are way down in last place for that stat.

Brisbane may be sitting 18th on the ladder, but their last month has been good, winning two games, including a massive 58-point victory over their neighbours, the Suns, last week.

We’re expecting the Dees to be too strong, but the line of 38.5 points seems a little high, given they’ve won just two games by more than that mark all season long, and average just 92 points per game.

Suggested Bet: Melbourne to win by 1-39 at $2.50

Fremantle v Richmond, Domain Stadium, Sunday August 20, 4:40pm AEST

After failing to get the points against an undermanned Geelong side last week, the pressure is now on Richmond to win both of their remaining two games – starting with Fremantle – to ensure they secure a top four finish.

Punters are confident that the Tigers will get that win, backing them in from $1.48 to $1.39, while the Dockers have drifted out from $2.65 to $3.03. The line is out from 12.5 to 19.5 points.

The confidence of the punters probably comes from the fact that the hosts were embarrassed by the Swans to the tune of 104 points last week, and in their last home game for the season, they’ll be out to gain some respect.

Fremantle managed a paltry total of just 39 points last week, and it won’t get any easier for them this week, as the Tigers defence are conceding an average of just 77 points per game.

Richmond has won four of their last five games at this venue, and although they didn’t play their best football last week, they are one of the league’s in-form teams, and will be too strong for the Dockers here.

Suggested Bet: Richmond by 1 to 39 points: $2


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