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AFL Sunday Specials: Dockers can break derby drought

Sat, Jul 15, 8:10am by Senior Writer

Sunday’s three AFL matches aren’t expected to produce too much tight footy, with all three matches having a line of greater than 14 points. But as we have seen throughout this year, upset results are more common than ever, and in at least one game, we could see the underdogs prevail.

Richmond v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, Sunday July 16, 1:10pm AEST

Richmond were frankly pathetic last week and having had a week to reflect on their poorest performance of the year, there is little chance of complacency here against the Lions.

The Tigers’ record against the Lions beggars belief. They have beaten them ten times in a row by an average of over 38 points, including a 52-point defeat of them in Round 4 at the Gabba.

With that in mind, and given the fact Richmond are sixth and Brisbane are 18th, the Tigers are $1.16 favourites for this match, with the Lions at $5.50, the 16th time this season they have started the outsiders.

The Lions have had just one win in the battle of the big cats since 2004, and like Richmond, are coming off a heavy defeat last week. What is in their favour is that this match is at Etihad and not the MCG. They did win at this ground in this timeslot two weeks ago against Essendon.

The Tigers have lost four of their past five at the Docklands venue in a streak going back to the start of last year.

But if Richmond are in anyway serious in their ambitions to contend this year, they should be winning this one by a big margin. They were able to blow them away at the Gabba three months ago despite trailing in all the key stats, including a 51-60 inside 50 count.

The market which interest us is the Tigers to beat the 36.5 line and the total points to be more than 185, a mark that has been eclipsed in seven of their past ten contests.

Suggested Bet: Richmond -36.5/Total Point over 185.5 – $3

Fremantle v West Coast, Subiaco, Sunday July 16, 4:40pm AEST

The 46th Western Derby sees West Coast go in as $1.38 favourites despite their biggest defeat in a home and away match at Subiaco in three year years last week, when they were completely overwhelmed by Port Adelaide.

Fremantle have lost the last four of these clashes, and hence go in as the $3.15 underdogs, but are coming off a hard-fought win away to North Melbourne last week.

The win snapped a five-match losing streak and has them sitting at a respectable 7-8 and far from out of contention for the finals. In fact a win in this match against the odds would see the Dockers draw level with the Eagles at 8-8 and heap significant pressure on the under-performing Eagles.

Ross Lyon has continued his rebuild of this side almost unnoticed, and with Nat Fyfe playing his best game of the year last week, they could be set to cause a few headaches to teams over the final six weeks of the season.

I certainly think they are a huge shot to cause the upset here. While they have struggled to match it with the Eagles in recent times, losing those four games by an average of six goals, this is an opportunity to get one back.

Suggested Bet: Fremantle to win at $3.15


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