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AFL Sunday Specials: Tigers and Crows to hit September with wins

Fri, Aug 25, 8:58am by Head Editor

The final Sunday of the year is here and with all three games set to have an impact on the make-up of the finals, the stage is set for a massive finish to the home and away season.

First up, Essendon are aiming to lock-in a return to the finals just one year after they won the wooden spoon, with a win over the Dockers. Meanwhile Richmond host St Kilda at the home of football, before we head west to see if Adelaide can secure the Minor Premiership and end the Eagles finals hopes.

Richmond v St Kilda, MCG, Sunday August 27, 3:20pm AEST

The MCG will be rocking when the Tigers put their top four aspirations on the line against a St Kilda side who can still squeeze into the top eight if everything goes their way.

Richmond are coming off a 104-point win over Fremantle, which saw them open at the short-priced quote of $1.35 on Monday, a quote that drifted slightly out to $1.45 by the end of the week.

The Saints belted the Kangaroos by 49 points at Etihad Stadium on Sunday, a result that kept their slim finals hopes alive. Alan Richardson’s side will know where they stand by ¼ time of this game, which may or may not be used as motivation.

They need both the Dogs and Bombers to lose and then need West Coast to lose to Adelaide. They opened at $3.20 on Monday, which was snapped up by punters, and shortened into $2.80, while the line has also moved in, from 18.5 to 13.5 points.

When these sides met in Round 16 at Etihad Stadium, the Saints had the match won by half-time, when they led by a whopping 82 points. That match was the worst performance of the entire season by a normally consistent Tigers outfit.

This one is at the MCG, where Richmond has won eight of 10 games this season, while the Saints have only played at the home of football once this year, two weeks ago when they lost to the Demons by 24 points.

There is so much on the line for this game, especially for the Tigers, who are a chance to play Geelong in a Qualifying Final at the MCG in two week’s time if they win this one comfortably, and the Cats beat the Giants.

With more on the line, I’m taking the Tigers at home to secure a top four finish.

Suggested Bet: Richmond to win by 1-39 at $2.10

West Coast v Adelaide, Domain Stadium, Sunday August 27, 4:40pm AEST

The Crows are guaranteed a top two finish and with it, a home Qualifying Final, but they’ll want to enter the finals in winning form, against the team that ruined their top four hopes in the last round of last season.

The Eagles on the other hand, are relying on Essendon or Melbourne losing earlier in the weekend, which would mean that a win for them in this one, would secure them a spot in September for the third straight season.

Despite losing a nail-biter to the Swans last week, Adelaide didn’t lose any friends in the betting markets, they’re still favoured to win the Premiership, at $3.25, while they’re in from $1.58 to $1.51 to win this one.

West Coast have had an incredibly inconsistent season, winning more than two games in a row just once, and dropping three games at home, which is normally a fortress. With that in mind, it’s no wonder they’re out from $2.40 to $2.60 to win this one against the best performed team of the season. The line is out from 9.5 to 13.5 points.

We’re taking Adelaide’s strong season to continue into the finals here, which will see them secure the Minor Premiership. They are the highest scoring team in the competition, averaging 111 points per game, while they also sit first in marks inside 50 and entries into 50. The Eagles sit 13th in this area.

Suggested Bet: Adelaide by 1 to 39 points: $2.20


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