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2013 AFL Finals – Week One Betting

Tue, Sep 3, 10:06pm by Clarinda Campbell

2013 AFL Finals SeriesIt’s AFL finals time and Carlton have snuck in to grab the last coveted spot while Hawthorn have wrapped up the minor premiership. This is week one of the finals. The first round consists of:

  • 1st qualifying final: 1st (Hawthorn) plays 4th (Sydney)
  • 2nd qualifying final: 2nd (Geelong) plays 3rd (Fremantle)
  • 1st elimination final: 5th (Tigers) plays 8th (Carlton)
  • 2nd elimination final: 6th (Collingwood) plays 7th (Port Adelaide)

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The eight top teams are split into two groups for the opening week of the finals. The top four teams have the best chance of winning the premiership and play the two qualifying finals. The winners of the two qualifying finals get a bye through to week three of the finals (they don’t play in week two). The losers of the two qualifying finals will play a home semi final against the winners of the two elimination finals. The season is over for the two losers of the elimination finals this week.

Due to this being a finals week, all the matches will be previewed in detail. Here’s a brief overview of what the first week has to offer.

Hawthorn Hawks ($1.50) vs Sydney Swans ($2.60)

7:50pm, Friday 6 September 2013 at the MCG

The Hawks and Swans meet again, just one week from playing each other in Round 23. Last week, the Swans stuck to the task and in a closely fought encounter, went down by only 12 points. They have to travel to Melbourne this week but they’ve done that plenty of times before.

These two teams were last years grand finalists, but it is a very different Sydney team that will be lining up this year compared to 2012. The injury woes of the Swans have been well reported and the absence of key players continues this week.

Hawthorn will be without their star forward Buddy Franklin after he was suspended for one week after a high bump on Swans defender Nick Malceski last week.

Whoever wins this gets a rest next week, the loser will have to play next week and win to stay alive.

Premiership / Outrights

The Hawks are now on the second line of betting to make the grand final at $1.90. They are also on the second line of betting to win the flag at $3.00. The Swans sit on the third line of betting in both markets, with Sydney $2.75 to make the grand final and $6.00 to win the major premiership.

Geelong Cats ($1.34) vs Fremantle Dockers ($3.30)

1:45pm, Saturday 7 September 2013 at Simonds Stadium

This match at Simonds Stadium is a sell out, with every last ticket snapped up very quickly. The Cats only managed a one point win over the Lions last week. They may have lacked a little motivation as a result of the Hawks win the night before. It meant they could not grab the minor premiership even if they won.

Meanwhile, Fremantle were solidly defeated last week by St Kilda but they virtually fielded the Dockers “B” team with numerous players rested. It was anticipated that players would be rested for that match. Fremantle did suffer a blow though to a key player. They elected to play Clancee Pearce in the match but he suffered a calf injury and now the Dockers defender will not take his place this week.

Geelong have opened up as the favourites in head to head betting. It will be tough for Fremantle before a Geelong home crowd and if they lose, they get to play the winner of one of the elimination finals at home next week.

Premiership / Outrights

Geelong are now the favourites to make the grand final ($1.75) and to win the 2013 premiership ($2.75). Hawthorn have been in that place for much of the year, but Geelong’s recent form has convinced punters they are the real deal. Fremantle are on the fourth line of betting in both markets. They are $3.00 to make the grand final and $7.00 to win the flag.

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Collingwood Magpies ($1.31) vs Port Adelaide Power ($3.50)

7:45pm, Saturday 7 September 2013 at the MCG

Both teams arrive at this first elimination final scratching their heads after both lost last week. Port Adelaide went down by 1 point to Carlton in a thriller and North Melbourne closed off their season with an 11 point win over the Magpies.

This match is do or die for both teams. The season is over for the team that loses. The sides have only met once this year and that was in Round 14, with the Power winning by a comfortable 35 points. Prior to that, the Magpies had dominated winning the last six against Port Adelaide.

The winner will be the team that best copes with the pressure and plays out the four quarters. The concern for the Magpies will be the injuries sustained to key defender Nathan Brown and forward/ruck Quinten Lynch. If these players can’t play this week, it will upset the Magpies structure.

Premiership / Outrights

Collingwood has still had support in both markets, coming into $5.50 to make the grand final and $14.00 to win the premiership. Port Adelaide have had no support, still at $41.00 to make the grand final and $101.00 to win the flag.

Richmond Tigers ($1.50) vs Carlton Blues ($2.65)

3:20pm, Sunday 8 September 2013 at the MCG

A bitter rivalry is played out again. These two sides only recently met in Round 21 and despite being the favourites, the Tigers weren’t able to overcome the Blues and lost by 10 points.

The Blues crept into the finals last week with a last gasp 1 point win over Port Adelaide that would have had fans celebrating long into the night. They were as much as 39 points down but showed great resilience to keep the hope alive and keep plugging away.

The Tigers had a 39 point win over Essendon last week and they aren’t likely to let this finals opportunity slip from their grasp easily. Their fans wouldn’t allow it so I am expecting a close, hard fought tussle in this match. The loser will bow out and the winner will live to fight another day next week.

Premiership / Outrights

The Tigers have remained steady at $11.00 to make the grand final but have blown out to $34.00 to win the flag. The Blues have had plenty of support this week, coming in to $26.00 to make the grand final and $51.00 to win the grand final.

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