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2013 AFL Round 20 Betting Preview

Thu, Aug 8, 12:35pm by Clarinda Campbell

AFL Round 20 Betting Preview$100 AFL Free Bet: IASbet.com

The top of the table leaders both came away from last weeks Round 19 matches with losses. The Hawks were downed by the Tigers and the Cats were strangled by the Kangaroos. The Giants were able to sing their team song after securing their first victory for season 2013.

The blockbuster match in this Round 20 is Swans and Magpies on Saturday night. The NRL will take a back seat Saturday night in NSW as the match has been moved from the SCG to ANZ Stadium to cater for the large amount of supporters expected to attend.

St Kilda Saints ($10.00) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.03)

7:50pm, Friday 9 August 2013 at Etihad Stadium

The Hawks will be smarting from their surprise defeat last week so they will assert some dominance here against the Saints. They were beaten comprehensively as they were kept to their lowest score of the season. They struggled with the wet and slippery conditions and genuinely played poorly.

The Hawks should return to the winners circle against the Saints, who have only managed a dismal three wins this year. They are way down in sixteenth spot on the ladder and are making up the numbers in this years competition.

The following markets are provided by IASbet.com and are the opening odds for this round.

H2H Betting Market

Saints: $10.00
Hawks: $1.03

Margin Market

Saints 1-39: $14.00
Saints 40+: $51.00
Hawks 1-39: $3.40
Hawks 40+: $1.39

Line (Handicap)

Saints +55.5: $1.92
Hawks: -55.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com

Best Bet

The Hawks will be firing from all cylinders to prove they are still the top team in the competition after going down to the Tigers last. Expect them to put on a big score and cover the spread in this handicap betting market.

Premiership / Outrights

The Hawks are the favourites to make the grand final, currently at odds of $1.77 and are $3.25 to win the flag with IASbet.com.

Richmond Tigers ($1.18) vs Brisbane Lions ($4.85)

1:45pm, Saturday 10 August 2013 at the MCG

Tigers supporters were lapping it up last week after they clawed down the competition leaders. They defeated the Hawks by a big 41 points. They were hungry for the win and it showed in their tenacity and concentration over the whole four quarters. The Tigers are finals bound this year and that is music to supporters ears after a tough year last year.

The Lions will attempt to put up a fight. They beat the Saints last week to secure their eighth win of the year. They are now out of finals contention but will still be looking for a good form line to take into the 2014 preseason. The Tigers will be too good but I don’t think the Lions will be flogged.

H2H

Tigers: $1.18
Lions: $4.85

Margin

Tigers 1-39: $2.30 with IASbet.com
Tigers 40+: $2.15
Lions 1-39: $5.60
Lions 40+: $27.00

Line (Handicap)

Tigers -32.5: $1.92
Lions +32.5: $1.92

Best Bet

I expect the Lions to be competitive and keep the margin for the Tigers down, so I would have a bet in the margin market 1-39 on Richmond.

Premiership / Outrights

The Tigers are still in the market to make the grand final at $9. They are currently $21 to win the premiership.

Geelong Cats ($1.15) vs Port Adelaide Power ($5.50)

2:10pm, Saturday 10 August 2013 at Simonds Stadium

Geelong, Geelong, Geelong…one laments why they can be so spectacular one week and then lose a game they are expected to win the next. They can be up and down like the proverbial yo yo. They were beaten by 10 points by competition chokers North Melbourne. The Cats inconsistency is a worry heading into the finals. I would be wary of them come September.

Port Adelaide continued their habit of winning matches in tight margins. They won the local derby last week against the Crows by 4 points and secured eighth spot on the ladder. They’ve proven this season they are tough and gritty. If they get off to a good start against Geelong they will present a challenge, however Geelong should win. Geelong have slipped to third spot on the ladder, now two points behind the Swans in second, so they may miss a home qualifying final due to their poor attitude in “easier” matches. They can’t afford to be blasé here.

H2H

Cats: $1.15
Power: $5.50

Margin

Cats 1-39: $2.40 with IASbet.com
Cats 40+: $1.99
Power 1-39: $6.60
Power 40+: $31.00

Line

Cats -36.5: $1.92
Power +36.5: $1.92

Best Bet

Port Adelaide play a tough, gritty brand of football and have plenty to play for. They will be doing their utmost to restrain Geelong from going on a scoring spree. The $2.40 odds on Geelong to win by 1-39 in the margin betting market are attractive and offer some value for punters.

Premiership / Outrights

The Cats are $3.75 to win the flag. Port Adelaide are $67. The Cats are on the third line of betting to playing in the grand final at the MCG ($1.90). The Power are sitting at $26 in that market.

Carlton Blues ($1.32) vs Western Bulldogs ($3.40)

4:40pm, Saturday 10 August 2013 at Etihad Stadium

The Blues were easily accounted for last week and their finals chances have nearly slipped away. The coach stated that 10 of the Blues players had “absolute stinkers” and I’m sure they would have suffered the wrath of coach Malthouse at the conclusion of play. They meet an improved Bulldogs side and will have to work hard for a much needed win. It’s hard to tip the Blues with any confidence. They have a 9-9 win/loss record this year and have been extremely disappointing.

The Bulldogs have secured five wins this year but it has been their late season form that has captured the attentions of the AFL community. Despite losing to the Swans last week they were competitive and pushed the Swans all the way. Expect them to push Carlton this week. Carlton should win but they won’t find it a walk in the park

H2H

Blues: $1.32 with IASbet.com
Bulldogs: $3.40

Margin

Blues 1-39: $2.25
Blues 40+: $3.00
Bulldogs 1-39: $3.80
Bulldogs 40+: $15.00

Line

Blues -20.5: $1.92
Bulldogs +20.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The Blues are so unpredictable in their performances (put on big scores, fail to put on big scores) that it is better to bet on them in the most simple market available, the head to head market.

Premiership / Outrights

Carlton are $67 to win the flag.

Sydney Swans ($1.42) vs Collingwood Magpies ($2.85)

7:40pm, Saturday 10 August 2013 at ANZ Stadium

This match of the round will be played at ANZ stadium and will be subject to a more detailed betting preview. It promises to be a cracker, with both the Swans and Magpies playing well. The Swans are now second on the ladder and will be fighting to keep that spot for a home qualifying final. On the other hand, Buckley’s boys will be keen to get the wood over last years reigning premiers.

Premiership / Outrights

The Swans are $3.40 to win the flag and the Magpies are $17.00 in the same market. The Swans are $1.83 to be in the grand final and Magpies are $9.

Gold Coast Suns ($1.13) vs Melbourne Demons ($6.00)

7:40pm, Saturday 10 August 2013 at Metricon Stadium

The Suns will be relishing this easy match before a home ground and will play to increase their amount of wins this year to 7. It has clearly been their best year to date and they will be boosted by the news that the current number 1 ranked player in the AFL, Gary Ablett, wants to stay with the club.

The Demons had the unfortunate honour of being the team that gave the Giants their first win of the year last week. They face slightly harder position here and have to travel to the Suns home ground on the Gold Coast for the game. The Demons were demoralised by the Suns earlier this season, losing by 60 points. Clearly, I’m tipping the Suns.

H2H

Suns: $1.13
Demons: $6.00

Margin

Suns 1-39: $2.40
Suns 40+: $1.99 with IASbet.com
Demons 1-39: $6.60
Demons 40+: $31.00

Line

Suns -36.5:$1.92
Demons +36.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The Suns should defeat the Demons in the same manner as they did earlier in the season, so a bet on the Suns to win by 40+ in the margin market is recommended.

Essendon Bombers ($1.37) vs West Coast Eagles ($3.10)

1:10pm, Sunday 11 August 2013 at Etihad Stadium

It was only six weeks ago that Essendon came from 17 points down to steal a seven point victory from the Eagles at Patersons Stadium. Essendon are back before a home ground for this match and will be striving to keep their top 4 aspirations alive. They’ve been defeated by Collingwood and Essendon in previous weeks, but the Eagles present as easier opposition then those two teams mentioned.

The Eagles only win in the last month was against the Suns. They’ve been extremely disappointing this year. Preseason, they looked the goods and were given a great chance of playing deep into the finals. However, they are pretty much out of finals contention and with a large list of injured players they will struggle against the Bombers.

H2H

Bombers: $1.37
Eagles: $3.10

Margin

Bombers 1-39: $2.30
Bombers 40+: $3.00
Eagles 1-39: $3.70
Eagles 40+: $13.00

Line

Bombers -19.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com
Eagles +19.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The Bombers have the capacity to defeat the depleted Eagles by 3 or more goals so the line market contains the best bet for this match.

Premiership / Outrights

The Bombers $34 to take the Premiership and $17 to take a spot in the big one.

Adelaide Crows ($2.00) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.80)

2:50pm, Sunday 11 August 2013 at AAMI Stadium

The Kangaroos pulled off a huge upset last week, downing the Geelong Cats by 10 points. It was a match which would have went some way to strengthening the somewhat poor mental strength of the North Melbourne team. Interestingly, it was North Melbourne’s low mental fortitude that lost them their Round 9 clash against Adelaide earlier this year. North Melbourne were five goals up in the final term but allowed the Crows back into it and the Crows took a one point victory.

The Crows biggest asset is Patrick Dangerfield. He was back to his best last week in the Crows close four point loss to Port Adelaide. The other advantage for the Crows is their good form over the Kangaroos at AAMI Stadium. They’ve won 10 of the last 16there against the Kangaroos, including the last five.

You can’t ignore the fact that the Kangaroos defeated Geelong last week. Based purely on this and the confidence it should instil, I am tipping North Melbourne.

H2H

Crows: $2.00
Kangaroos: $1.80 with IASbet.com

Margin

Crows 1-39: $2.65
Crows 40+: $7.60
Kangaroos 1-39: $2.40
Kangaroos 40+: $5.60

Line

Crows +3.5: $1.92
Kangaroos -3.5: $1.92

Best Bet

I suggest placing the Kangaroos in a multi to win this match outright.

Fremantle Dockers ($1.00) vs Greater Western Sydney Giants ($21.00)

2:40p, Sunday 11 August 2013 at Patersons Stadium

The Giants will be on a huge high after their first win last week but they will be crashing back to earth this week as they face the daunting task of heading west to play top 4 side, Fremantle. In worse news for the Giants, Dockers star Matthew Pavlich is returning from suspension and coach Lyon is telling his players they can’t be complacent against the competition minnows.

The last time the sides met (Round 17, 2012), the Dockers smashed the Giants by 95 points. In that victory, Pavlich kicked 7 goals. The Dockers reduced the Giants to just five goals for the whole match. The Dockers easily accounted for the Blues last week and should find this match easier again.

H2H

Dockers: $1.00
Giants: $21.00

Margin

Dockers 1-39: $5.80
Dockers 40+: $1.14
Giants 1-39: $22.00
Giants 40+: $151.00

Line

Dockers -72.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com
Giants +72.5: $1.92

Best Bet

It’s a tough ask for the Giants to travel west and take on the best defensive side in the competition. The Giants will struggle to score points and with the return of Pavlich, the Dockers have the arsenal to pile on the points. They are expected to cover the line and the $1.92 presents good odds when considering the other opening odds in the head to head and margin markets.

Premiership / Outrights

The Dockers are currently $7 to be the top team at the close of all play. They are $3 to make the grand final.


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