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Betting Preview for 2013 AFL Round 22

Wed, Aug 21, 2:46pm by Clarinda Campbell

AFL Round 22 Preview$100 Free AFL Bet: www.IASbet.com

September is only a hop, skip and a jump away but there is still plenty of red hot action in the AFL home and away season. The blockbuster this round is obviously Geelong and Sydney. It’s hard to know which way this game will go but we’ll have a close look at it and see if we can come up with an answer. The other matches to be previewed are the Blues against the Bombers and Fremantle versus Port Adelaide.

The top four teams all won their respective matches last week. In the betting arena, there was also plenty of success with the tipping (Port to win by 1-39 at $2.20, Kangaroos head to head at $1.92, Dockers in the handicap market at $1.92, Swans 40+ at $1.34 and the Bulldogs as an upset at $2.12 in head to head betting). All the outcomes for the Hawks in the H2H, margin, line and tri bet markets were successful and there was also success in tipping the Cats in the head to head, line and tri bet markets. The Tigers let me down on a few tips in their “shake of the head” loss to Carlton.

Round 22 is the second last round of the year. Here’s a look at the matches to be played and some of the odds IASbet.com have on offer.

Collingwood Magpies ($1.13) vs West Coast Eagles ($6.00)

7:50pm, Friday 23 August 2013 at the MCG

The Eagles season is now dead after their huge loss to the Cats. The Magpies also came crashing back to reality after the Hawks outplayed them in a masterclass display of skill last Friday. The Magpies sit in sixth spot on the ladder and are not able to make the top four.

The Magpies have won 8 of the last 9 against the Eagles and there’s no reason why they won’t make it 9 of the last 10. It’s expected that the Eagles will dominate the ruck, but they have done that in most of their matches and haven’t managed to take advantage of it. With their season over, the short turnaround from last week and the travel across to Melbourne, they will struggle to compete with the black and whites here.

H2H Betting Market

Magpies: $1.13
Eagles: $6.00

Margin Market

Magpies 1-39: $2.40
Magpies 40+: $2.00
Eagles 1-39: $6.20
Eagles 40+: $29.00

Line (Handicap)

Magpies -35.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com
Eagles: +35.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The line market appeals the most in this match. The Eagles were flogged last week, they are missing players, and Collingwood will be seeking to redeem favour after their loss to the Hawks. They are capable of covering the 6 goal spread before a home crowd.

Premiership / Outrights

The Magpies have eased in outright markets this week after their loss to the Hawks. They are $15.00 to win flag and $6.50 to make the grand final.

Adelaide Crows ($1.02) vs Melbourne Demons ($14.00)

1:15pm, Saturday 24 August 2013 at AAMI Stadium

To be frank, there’s likely to be little interest in this match. Both sides are Round 21 losers and both sides are on the lower rungs of the competition ladder. Adelaide is clearly the better side of the two, having managed eight victories this year to Melbourne’s two.

Adelaide will win and will win by a fair margin at AAMI Stadium.

H2H

Crows: $1.02
Demons: $14.00

Margin

Crows 1-39: $3.60
Crows 40+: $1.33
Demons 1-39: $16.00
Demons 40+: $160.00

Line (Handicap)

Crows -58.5: $1.92
Lions +58.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The best odds on offer are in the line market. There’s very little value around in the head to head betting and margin betting. Melbourne are routinely beat by 50 or more so don’t expect anything different here. Adelaide is capable of overcoming the handicap given to them in this market.

North Melbourne Kangaroos ($3.15) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.36)

2:10pm, Saturday 24 August 2013 at Etihad Stadium

North Melbourne pulled off the expected defeat of Essendon last week but I doubt they will be a match for the Hawks this week (if the Hawks play like they did against the Magpies).

The last time these two sides met, the points differential was just three points in the Hawks favour. North Melbourne have shown all year they are a talented side and they will present the Hawks with a challenge.

The Hawks were brilliant last week and showed they were indeed “up” for the game. They came to play and were really switched on. They need to bring that same frame of mind to this game in order to sustain a victory. They can’t slack off against the Kangaroos and allow them a lead. Being so close to the finals, they may see this as an opportunity to fine tune their skills leading into the business end of the season. They also need to win to cement the minor premiership. Either way, the Hawks should be too good and they’ll be taking victory here.

H2H

Kangaroos: $3.15
Hawks: $1.36

Margin

Kangaroos 1-39: $3.60
Kangaroos 40+: $12.00
Hawks 1-39: $2.30 with IASbet.com
Hawks 40+: $3.10

Line

Kangaroos +18.5: $1.92
Hawks -18.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The Kangaroos showed in the earlier match this year that they can adapt to the Hawks style. The margin was only three points then and shouldn’t be too much more than that here, so the margin bet in the 1-39 market looks the goods at $2.30.

Premiership / Outrights

The Hawks have had continued support in outright markets. They have moved in slightly to $3.00 to win the flag and $1.72 to make the grand final. They are also $1.75 to win the minor premiership. They’re currently a win in front of Geelong with only two rounds left. Geelong have the easier run home but the Hawks would still have to lose one in order for the Cats to be in contention.

Geelong Cats ($1.32) vs Sydney Swans ($3.40)

4:40pm, Saturday 24 August 2013 at Simonds Stadium

This is clearly the match of Round 22. It’s number two taking on number three and is the subject of a further betting preview (coming in the next day or two). If I ever wanted to sit on the fence, this is the match I would do it in. A closer inspection of the two teams will hopefully yield the winner.

Premiership / Outrights

The Cats have had some small support in outright markets with their prices moving in slightly. They are $1.90 to make the grand final and $3.50 to win the flag. They are also $2.40 and on the second line of betting to claim the minor premiership.

The Swans have continued to move out in the outright markets and may be slowly losing favour with punters. They are $2.25 to make the grand final and $4.75 to win the premiership.

Carlton Blues ($1.44) vs Essendon Bombers ($2.75)

7:40pm, Saturday 24 August 2013 at the MCG

Carlton are still in the hunt for a top eight spot this week (if they win and Port lose). Port won’t have it easy this week as they play Fremantle. So, if Carlton win and Port lose, next week’s match between the two sides will be do or die. Essendon are still in the top eight. Given the importance of this match to Carlton’s finals chances, a further betting preview will be undertaken.

Premiership / Outrights

Carlton are $67.00 to make the grand final. Essendon are $41.00. Both sides are over $100 to win the flag. Clearly, the Bombers have lost all support of the punters and need to bounce back in stunning fashion to win them back.

Fremantle Dockers ($1.17) vs Port Adelaide Power ($5.00)

5:40pm, Saturday 24 August 2013 at Patersons Stadium

This shapes as an important match for Port Adelaide’s season. A win secures them a final spot and a loss puts them heartbreakingly close to missing the finals. That will depend on how the Blues perform. Again, due to the importance of this match in the final composition of the top eight, a further betting preview will be provided shortly.

Premiership / Outrights

The Dockers have had some support during the week, coming into $2.25 to make the grand final. They have remained steady at $5.50 to win the premiership. Port Adelaide are $67.00 in that same market and $31.00 to make the grand final.

St Kilda Saints ($1.83) vs Gold Coast Suns ($1.97)

1:10pm, Sunday 25 August 2013 at Etihad Stadium

This is a match with nothing riding on it. It’s a battle of sixteenth against fourteenth.

The Suns have had a breakout year with 7 victories. The Saints have had a year they’d rather forget, scraping together just 3 wins so far for the season.

The Saints put it to the Swans in the early stages of their match last week but the Swans put on the afterburners in the latter half of the match and the Saints couldn’t stay with them; they were simply outclassed.

The Suns went down narrowly to Port Adelaide last week but lost no fans. Earlier this year, the Suns defeated St Kilda by 13 points. The Suns don’t have the best results at Etihad Stadium but there’s always the opportunity to change that. I like the Suns in this one.

H2H

Saints: $1.83
Suns: $1.97 with IASbet.com

Margin

Saints 1-39: $2.40
Saints 40+: $5.80
Suns 1-39: $2.60
Suns 40+: $7.20

Line

Saints -2.5: $1.92
Suns +2.5: $1.92

Best Bet

It’s best to keep it simple for this match and place a bet in the head to head market. The Saints are only favourites purely because of the Suns poor form at Etihad. I think the Suns can overcome that and come away with a win at $1.97.

Greater Western Sydney Giants ($16.00) vs Richmond Tigers ($1.01)

3:20pm, Sunday 25 August 2013 at Skoda Stadium

GWS will suffer another loss at home this week; this time to the Tigers. It is a classic mismatch between a team in last place and the fifth placed team. Yes, the Tigers were extremely disappointing in their loss to Carlton, but this is a different kettle of fish. These sides last met last year and Richmond won by 12 points. The Richmond of 2013 is far superior to the Richmond of 2012, so expect a result with a much greater margin this time around.

H2H

Giants: $16.00
Tigers: $1.01

Margin

Giants 1-39: $17.00
Giants 40+: $151.00
Tigers 1-39: $4.70
Tigers 40+: $1.21

Line

Giants +67.5: $1.92
Tigers -67.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The Tigers need to come out with all guns blazing in order to boost their percentages. These percentages will be important in determining their final spot on the ladder. In light of this consideration they will be looking to score as many points as possible and restrict the Giants scoring. The line market appeals as Richmond only need to overcome an 11.5 goal handicap against the bottom ranked team.

Premiership / Outrights

The Tigers are $10.00 to make the grand final and $26.00 to win the flag. They have moved out in betting in both markets compared to last week courtesy of their disappointing loss to the Blues.

Brisbane Lions ($1.53) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.50)

4:40pm, Sunday 25 August 2013 at the Gabba

The Western Bulldogs are enjoying a fantastic finish to the season, with their latest win coming against the Crows last week. The Lions snared a 60 point win over GWS and that soft win may work to their disadvantage this week. The Lions cannot afford to take the Bulldogs lightly.

The Crows are missing a couple of their strong midfielders for this match and that may just prove the key for the Bulldogs. In Round 1 this year, the Bulldogs handed Adelaide a 68 point defeat. Adelaide have opened the favourites in head to head betting, but I am going to tip the Bulldogs again in an upset.

H2H

Lions: $1.53
Bulldogs: $2.50 with IASbet.com

Margin

Lions 1-39: $2.25
Lions 40+: $4.20
Bulldogs 1-39: $3.10
Bulldogs 40+: $11.00

Line

Lions -11.5: $1.92
Bulldogs +11.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The Bulldogs have opened at $2.50 and they are good odds in the head to head betting.


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