Sat, Jun 22, 7:23am by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Fremantle Dockers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos – AFL Round 13
When/Where: 1:20pm, Sunday 23 June 2013 at Patersons Stadium
Bet on Dockers vs Kangaroos: IASbet.com
Fremantle are at home this week to the freshened Kangaroos. This is the most interesting match of Round 13 as it appears it will be the closest, more evenly balanced match.
The Dockers grinded to a 40 point win over the Lions last week. They were expected to be more dominant, but at the end of the day it was just a demonstration of Fremantle’s style of play. They focus more on defence than offence. They are meeting the sixth best offensive side in the competition. It will be interesting to see what method wins out.
North Melbourne have been the team that have probably caused the most heartbreak for their fans. They have lost four matches by under a kick so far this season. Some of these tight losses have come against top ranked teams. Clearly, they have the skill and talent; they just lack the mental fortitude to stay in a challenging match. They meet a mentally tough side this week and really need to focus to obtain an advantage.
The fifth placed Dockers are $9.00 chances to win the flag whilst the thirteenth placed Kangaroos are at long odds of $101.00.
There are some interesting markets to consider this week outside of the traditional H2H market. Markets that bettors might consider (which are explored in more detail below) include the handicap, margin and doubles market.
|Bet on Dockers vs Kangaroos|
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North Melbourne did not handle the wet conditions in their last match against the Gold Coast. They will be hoping the weather prediction doesn’t come true as there is a 90% chance of rain on Sunday in Perth. In their match against the Suns, the Kangaroos struggled to move the ball forward. They will need plenty of ball movement in this game to get around Freo’s stolid defence.
The Dockers have conceded just 20 goals in their past three matches and have only been beaten once at home this year. They come into this match off three straight victories. In contrast, the Kangaroos have lost three of their last four and need to start winning to sustain their slim hope of making the finals come September.
There is no denying the Kangaroos have the talent. Much has been said of their narrow losses to top class teams. Fremantle are well aware they are taking on a decent side. The key for Fremantle will be to stop Lindsay Thomas, who has kicked 35 goals this year.
The history between these two sides is interesting. No side has really dominated in the recent ten encounters. However, Fremantle have really made pundits stand up and take notice of their effective defensive style of play. North Melbourne have demonstrated in the past that they struggle against this style of play. Coupled with their mental weakness in games this year, it may be just too hard for them to find the edge to defeat the Dockers at home. On that basis, I am tipping a Dockers win. I don’t expect a high scoring affair, so the margin should sit in the 1-39 bracket.
Dockers Head to Head: $1.31 with IASbet.com
Kangaroos Head to Head: $3.60
If you are a punter that likes to take very little risk then the traditional head to head market is where you typically place your bets. Based on the prediction, you can bet on the Dockers here and almost be guaranteed of a small return. The odds currently on offer won’t return a great deal, but if you were a multi bettor you might throw this into one of your legs.
Dockers 1-39: $2.00 with IASbet.com
Dockers 40+: $3.10
Kangaroos 1-30: $4.00
Kangaroos 40+: $21.00
In line with the prediction for this match you can currently get even money on the Dockers to win by 1-39. This would be my best bet for this particular match.
Dockers -21.5: $1.92
Kangaroos +21.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com
I err on the side of caution with the line in this match. Fremantle aren’t known for their attack and ability to score points. Against good rivals, North Melbourne have had very close matches. If you were a handicap bettor then consider taking the Kangaroos with the 21.5 point head start.
Dockers over 15.5 points: $1.66
Either team under 15.5 points: $2.85 with IASbet
Kangaroos over 15.5 points: $6.80
The match should be tight based on the statistics so there is some nice value here on either team under 15.5 points.
The doubles market here throws up an interesting, well paying combination. The Kangaroos can get off the mark early, but are not likely to win this match. Running with this theory, the Kangaroos should be in front at half time, but not at full time. So, the double of Kangaroos / Dockers is a bet worth considering and is currently paying $7.00.
If you love Boomer Harvey and think he will be the first player for the Kangaroos to score a goal, then you can currently get a price of $8.00. This presents good odds in the player markets as Boomer has scored a few goals for the Roos.
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