Fri, Jul 5, 6:15am by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks – AFL Round 15
When/Where: 7:40pm, Saturday 6 July 2013 at The MCG
Bet on Cats vs Hawks: IASbet.com
Hawthorn have not played against a side in the top eight since their defeat of Sydney in Round 7. They had challenges to meet against Carlton and West Coast, but overcame the pressure to score. Last week, they put in a clinical performance against the Lions. The Hawks will be hoping that star player Cyril Rioli returns from a hamstring injury.
The Hawks have not beaten the Cats since the 2008 Grand Final, with the Cats winning 10 straight matches since then. Last week, Geelong beat Fremantle at their own game, sustaining damaging defensive pressure and making it difficult for the Dockers to score. The win came in response to their shock loss to Brisbane the week prior.
Hawthorn need to be very active in their midfield if they are to beat Geelong. The Cats are the number one handballing side in the competition so Hawthorn really need to lay their tackles. They haven’t been ranked highly in tackles this year but they will be aware of what they need to do in this match.
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The game presents a predicament for tipsters as the two teams are so evenly matched. They have the same strengths in their forward lines and defence. The Hawks are the number one scoring team in the competition thanks to their super forward line. The form points to the Hawks, but the history points to the Cats. Defence is a priority in the game for both teams as both can attack pretty well. To the Hawks advantage, they have been the most consistent team this year, whilst Geelong have been haunted by inconsistency. Bearing this in mind, I am tipping the Hawks to win by at least one goal.
Cats Head to Head: $2.15
Hawks Head to Head: $1.70 with IASbet.com
I think the Hawks have a slight edge in this game, so I’m willing to take shorter head to head odds of $1.70 with IASbet. However, I wouldn’t argue with anyone who prefers $2.15 for the Cats.
Cats 1-39: $2.75
Cats 40+: $8.50
Hawks 1-39: $2.30 with IASbet.com
Hawks 40+: $5.00
There is no doubting the match will be close, and there is value in the 1-39 margin markets for both teams (because of shorter draw odds and 40+ odds not being as long as they should be). I’m taking the Hawks 1-39 for $2.30.
Since this match is expected to be close, the draw market is a bit shorter than it normally is. However, because we do expect a close match, a 1/2 unit bet on the draw might be worth a shot.
Cats +6.5: $1.92
Hawks -6.5: $1.92
The line bet in this match is for those that rely on the statistics. Since 2009, eight games between these teams have been decided by less than 10 points and five have been decided by less than a goal. Bearing this in mind, the 6.5 handicap may be worth a bet.
Cats over 15.5 points: $3.75
Either team under 15.5 points: $2.40 with IASbet.com
Hawks over 15.5 points: $2.40
With the statistic about the close games at the fore, it is worth having a bet in this tri bet market on “either team under 15.5 points”.
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