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AFL Round 17 Betting Preview

Wed, Jul 17, 12:06pm by Clarinda Campbell

AFL Round 17 Preview$100 AFL Free Bet: IASbet.com

AFL Round 16 is done and dusted and as finals approach in September, the race for spots in the top eight will become more fierce. Round 16 showed that Hawthorn could still score goals in the absence of Buddy Franklin and that the Swans could pile on points in the absence of Goodes, Reid and Roberts-Thomson. The Eagles also showed the rest of the competition how to challenge Fremantle. If you play Fremantle at their own game (ferocious tackling) you can test them. Even though the Eagles did not win, the other teams lining up against Fremantle for rest of the season would have noticed how they struggled at times with the tackling pressure.

We were on the money with our tips last week for the Eagles and Dockers game, backing the winner in both the H2H and margin betting markets. This week’s match of the round is the Eagles vs Swans clash. The in-form Swans face the daunting task of heading west to take on the desperate Eagles at home.

North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.80) vs Carlton Blues ($2.00)

7:50pm, Friday 19 July at Etihad Stadium

North Melbourne continued their run of outs this year, going down in another narrow loss to the Brisbane Lions last round. The dilemma surrounding North Melbourne’s close losses now offers two options – they are a mentally weak side or they just simply lack the fitness to play out four tough quarters. Either way, they have virtually made their finals chances many times tougher. They are an exasperating team to figure out as the match prior to this loss they handed the in-form Tigers a 62 point shellacking. They sit in eleventh spot on the competition ladder and are taking on the ninth placed Blues.

The Blues easily accounted for St Kilda last week to maintain their hopes of taking up a spot in the finals. They snapped a four game losing streak. This game is a crunch game for them.

Neither side have dominated recent clashes with the four recent matches played between the teams resulting in two victories each.

The following markets are provided by IASbet.com and are the opening odds for this round.

H2H Betting Market

Kangaroos: $1.80
Blues: $2.00

Margin Market

Kangaroos 1-39: $2.45 with IASbet.com
Kangaroos 40+: $5.00
Blues 1-39: $2.70
Blues 40+: $7.20

Line (Handicap)

Kangaroos -3.5: $1.92
Crows: +3.5: $1.92

Best Bet

I think the Kangaroos will win by a margin of 1-39 so will be placing a bet in this margin market.

Premiership / Outrights

After last week’s loss, punters have gone cold on the Kangaroos making the final eight. The odds have gone out to $4.50 from the $2.50 they were before last round. However, punters have rallied behind the Blues in the same market with the Blues coming into $1.70 from $2.50.

Hawthorn Hawks ($1.01) vs Western Bulldogs ($16.00)

1:45pm, Saturday 20 July at Aurora Stadium

The Bulldogs played surprisingly well in their clash against the Bombers at Etihad Stadium on Sunday. The Bombers were streaking away early but the Bulldogs were tenacious and would claw the margin back to 10-20 points. The Bulldogs came out the losers but they wouldn’t have lost any fans from the performance. At times, it was obvious their skill level was not as good as the Bombers, but they get points for trying.

The Hawks remain on top of the table after their victory over Port Adelaide last week. The Hawks got off to a great start, booting 6 goals in the first quarter. They allowed the Power back into the game in the second quarter. However, the Hawks went up a gear after the half time break and showed the Power why they are presently the top team in the competition. Victory for the Hawks this week is a fait accompli.

The following markets are provided by IASbet.com and are the opening odds for this round.

H2H

Hawks: $1.01
Bulldogs: $16.00

Margin

Hawks 1-39: $4.50
Hawks 40+: $1.22
Bulldogs 1-39: $22.00
Bulldogs 40+: $151.00

Line (Handicap)

Hawks -62.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com
Bulldogs +62.5: $1.92

Best Bet

Despite maintaining a close margin with the Bombers throughout the match, it must be remembered that the Bulldogs were playing a Bombers side that was missing their X-Factor (Jobe Watson). The Hawks are a class team and should be able to bridge the 62.5 point handicap. After looking at how short the other markets are on this match, I will be placing my bet in this line market.

Premiership / Outrights

Punters are still keen to back Hawthorn to make the grand final. The Hawks have come into $1.90 after opening at $2.00 last week. The Hawks have also shortened to win the Premiership flag ($3.45 in to $3.25) with IASbet.com.

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Greater Western Sydney Giants ($21.00) vs Essendon Bombers ($1.01)

2:10pm, Saturday 20 July at Skoda Stadium

The Giants were walloped by their Sydney neighbours last week, suffering a whopping 129 point loss at the SCG. They return home this week to take on Essendon but are likely to find the going tough.

Essendon beat the Bulldogs last week, but the match wasn’t without its close moments. The Bombers were clearly missing Jobe Watson and appear slightly vulnerable without him. That vulnerability should not be exposed this week as it is the third placed team taking on the last placed team.

GWS have performed well against the Bombers in recent times, but have never come away with a victory against them and it is probable that they won’t come away with a victory today.

The following markets are provided by IASbet.com and are the opening odds for this round.

H2H

Giants: $21.00
Bombers: $1.01

Margin

Giants 1-39: $22.00
Giants 40+: $251.00
Bombers 1-39: $6.00
Bombers 40+: $1.15

Line

Giants (+72.5): $1.92
Bombers (+72.5): $1.92 with IASbet.com

Best Bet

The line bet offers the best odds in this match. The Giants are regularly beaten by more than 72.5 points each week so the Bombers should be able to cover that spread.

Premiership / Outrights

Punters are starting to lose faith in the Bombers when their finals chances are considered. They have drifted out to $6.50 to make the Grand Final and $14.00 to win the Premiership.

Gold Coast Suns ($4.55) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.17)

4:40pm, Saturday 20 July at Metricon Stadium

It appears as though the Suns run of good form has ebbed. They have now lost four straight and this match will not be easy. They have slipped to fourteenth spot on the ladder and their finals chances are all but over.

The Magpies have hit form at the right time of the year. Their midfield was excellent last week in their victory over Adelaide. They need to keep winning to maintain their position in the top eight and it looks like they should go a step closer to doing that this week with a victory over the Suns. The Magpies have defeated the Suns in all clashes they have had (2) and have won their last 6 at the venue.

H2H

Suns: $4.55
Magpies: $1.17

Margin

Suns 1-39: $5.20
Suns 40+: $25.00
Magpies 1-39: $2.20
Magpies 40+: $2.35 with IASbet.com

Line

Suns +29.5: $1.92
Magpies -29.5: $1.92

Best Bet

With the shine starting to come off the Suns and the polish being applied liberally to the Magpies, it is safe to say that the Magpies could win this by a margin of 40+ and punters should be taking the $2.35 on offer.

Premiership / Outrights

Punters have rallied behind Collingwood this week to win the flag. They have come into $10.00 (from $12.00) with IASbet.com.

St Kilda Saints ($1.96) vs Port Adelaide Power ($1.84)

7:40pm, Saturday 20 July at Etihad Stadium

The Saints win record stayed at 3 after last week’s loss to the Blues. The eighth placed Power are also coming into this match with a loss.
The Saints have failed to make an impact this year. Their young line-up is still working at gaining all important experience. They have nothing left to play for this year apart from their pride. The Port Adelaide side will be coming into this match with a team full of desperation. This is a must win match. Victory is a must to retain a spot in the all-important top eight.

Saint Kilda have won three of the last five matches against Port Adelaide. The sides haven’t met since Round One last year, when Port Adelaide won. Port Adelaide are a better side this year and should be too strong.

H2H

Saints: $1.96
Power: $1.84 with IASbet.com

Margin

Saints 1-39: $2.60
Saints 40+: $7.00
Power 1-39: $2.45
Power 40+: $5.80

Line

Saints +2.5: $1.92
Power -2.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The H2H market is the simplest bet to take in the markets currently on offer. The odds displayed for Port Adelaide are rather attractive as they were expected to open up shorter than the $1.84 on offer given the Saints poor record this year.

Premiership / Outrights

Port have drifted ever so slightly in the betting to make the final eight. They are now at odds of $1.62. Prior to Round 16, they were $1.57.

Melbourne Demons ($4.30) vs Brisbane Lions ($1.21)

7:40pm, Saturday 20 July at TIO Stadium

The Demons came down to earth last week after the Cats cruised to a sizeable victory at Simonds Stadium. The Demons broke a record that no one wants (record low of entries inside 50) and only scored 30 points. Admittedly the playing conditions were bad and they were playing a top team, but it would have done nothing for their already fragile confidence.

In contrast, the Lions will be arriving at TIO Stadium with a spring in their step. They are becoming known as the ‘comeback kings’ after chasing down a 33 point lead by the Kangaroos to steal what looked like an unlikely victory. Throughout the season, the Lions have shown flashes of the form that won them the pre season NAB Cup, their inconsistency has been the obvious issue. They sit in fourteenth place on the ladder and possess a very slim chance of making the finals this year. A likely win here against the Demons will assist their cause.

The following markets are provided by IASbet.com and are the opening odds for this round.

H2H

Demons: $4.30
Lions: $1.21

Margin

Demons 1-39: $4.75
Demons 40+: $27.00
Lions 1-39: $2.15
Lions 40+: $2.20

Line

Demons +29.5: $1.92
Lions -29.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com

Best Bet

The Lions are poised to cover the 29.5 spread so a bet in the line market is recommended.

Premiership / Outrights

Punters have recognised the Lions ability to make a late run into the finals and have backed them from $21.00 in to $15.00 with IASbet.com to make the final eight. They are a rough chance doing this.

Richmond Tigers ($1.96) vs Fremantle Dockers ($1.83)

1:10pm, Sunday 21 July at the MCG

The sixth placed Tigers were pushed all the way by the Suns in Cairns last week. They dominated possession but were unable to convert that into goals. They eventually did enough to win and break their Cairns hoodoo, but they need to be better this week for their clash with the fifth placed team in the competition.

The Dockers have won six of their last seven matches coming into this clash and their class shone through over the Eagles last week. Fremantle defeated Richmond earlier this year in Round 5 by just one point and have won the past three matches against Richmond. The Dockers have lost their skipper for this match.

We all are aware of the Dockers defensive pressure. The key for the Tigers is to apply that same pressure to Fremantle. It will be a close battle but I think the Dockers will prevail.

The following markets are provided by IASbet.com and are the opening odds for this round.

H2H

Tigers: $1.96
Dockers: $1.83

Margin

Tigers 1-39: $2.60
Tigers 40+: $7.20
Dockers 1-39: $2.40 with IASbet.com
Dockers 40+: $5.80

Line

Tigers +2.5: $1.92
Dockers -2.5: $1.92

Best Bet

In accordance with the prediction, my best bet would be the Dockers 1-39 in the margin market, which is currently offering $2.40.

Premiership / Outrights

The Tigers have eased out to $10.00 in the grand final betting market and to $21.00 to win the flag. In contrast, the Dockers clearly haven’t lost fans as they have shortened to $3.75 to make the grand final and $8.50 to win the flag.

Adelaide Crows ($4.30) vs Geelong Cats ($1.21)

3:20pm, Sunday 21 July at AAMI Stadium

The twelfth placed Crows are bracing for the loss of their superstar midfielder Patrick Dangerfield for the match against Geelong. Dangerfield was injured in the Crows loss to the Magpies last week and as a result, it looks unlikely that the Crows can challenge the dominant Cats.

The Cats cruised to victory over the Demons last week to stay in touch with the Hawks at the top of the competition leader. A victory here is a mere formality as they continue on their merry way this season.

The following markets are provided by IASbet.com and are the opening odds for this round.

H2H

Crows: $4.30
Cats: $1.21

Margin

Crows 1-39: $4.90
Crows 40+: $23.00
Cats 1-39: $2.20
Cats 40+: $2.40 with IASbet.com

Line

Crows +28.5: $1.92
Cats -28.5: $1.92

Best Bet

The Crows are vulnerable without Dangerfield so the Cats should take advantage of this and dominate the match by 40+. I will be placing a bet with IASbet.com on the $2.40 on offer in the 40+ margin market.

Premiership / Outrights

The Cats have remained steady in the outright market to win the Premiership. They have eased to win the minor premiership and shortened to make the grand final ($2.10).

West Coast Eagles ($2.55) vs Sydney Swans ($1.51)

4:40pm, Sunday 21 July at Patersons Stadium

This is the match of the round this week and a detailed betting preview will be posted shortly.

The Eagles have challenged three of the top five teams in the competition in the last month. West Coast will be playing with a lot of intensity in this match as they are desperate for a top eight finish. The Swans are coming off an easy win last week against the Giants to retain a spot in the top four. They will be wary of heading west this week and will need to bring their top game to overcome the Eagles before a ferocious Eagles home crowd.

Premiership / Outrights

The Eagles have eased in betting to make the final eight, now currently at $1.77. Punters are still supporting the Swans in their bid to replicate their 2012 performance. The Swans have shortened to make the grand final ($2.50) and win the flag ($4.75).


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