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AFL Round 13: Brisbane Lions v Richmond Betting Preview – Saturday 18 June, 2011

Fri, Jun 17, 12:49am by Kevin Pitstock

When and Where:

7.10pm at Gabba

Overall Head-To-Head:

Brisbane Lions – 16
Richmond – 19
Draws – 1

Last Time They Met:

Richmond 18.16 (124) defeated Brisbane Lions 14.14 (98), round 6, 2011 at the MCG

Recent Form:

Brisbane Lions – LWWLL
Richmond – LWLBL

Current Ladder Positions:

Brisbane Lions – 15th (2-9)
Richmond – 6th (4-1-6)

Key Players:

It will be the battle of the key forwards on Saturday night.

Jonathan Brown has struggled to capture his best form since returning to the Brisbane side after his face was smashed in Round 1 this season. The 29-year-old may be averaging two goals per game since returning, but his disposal average of 11 per game is well down on his best. So what is Brown’s best? When the Brisbane skipper is both pushing up the ground and delivering the ball inside 50, or one on-on inside the attacking 50 and using his body strength to take a contested mark. Perhaps we’re being a little too harsh on Brown now, because the reality is if he isn’t firing, the Lions are no chance.

Many think Jack Riewoldt’s has had an inconsistent and unpredictable 2011 season, but when you look at his games this season that’s far from the truth. The 22-year-old has booted at least two goals in all but two games this season – one of them being when he was knocked unconscious in the first term and didn’t return to the field. Between Round 4 and Round 9, Riewoldt kicked either four or five goals in each match – how’s that inconsistent? The full-forward has a big challenge on Saturday night though when he lines up on Daniel Merrett, regarded by many as the best spoiler in the game. If Riewoldt can get on top though, the Tigers should win.

Brisbane Lions Team Changes:

IN – Rohan Bewick, Josh Drummond, Patrick Karnezis and Ryan Harwood
OUT – Matt Austin, Cheynee Stiller, Bryce Retzlaff and Jed Adcock (finger)

Richmond Team Changes:

IN – Luke McGuane, Jayden Post and Jeromey Webberley
OUT – David Astbury (knee), Jake Batchelor (soreness) and Matt White

New Players:

BRISBANE – Patrick Karnezis (19, Oakleigh Chargers)

Who Wins?

On paper, this should be an easy one to tip. But after both teams were affected by flight delays during the week, this one’s back to an even playing field.

Many thought Brisbane was on its way up the ladder after two straight wins against North Melbourne and Adelaide. But two 10-goal hidings at the hands of Sydney and Carlton have completely derailed its momentum. The Lions are now only percentage off the bottom of the ladder, and what do you expect when their kicking efficiency hovers around 68 per cent – the worst in the competition. On a positive note, coach Michael Voss would be thrilled with the development of Pearce Hanley, Matthew Leunberger and Jack Redden in 2011.

At one stage, Richmond had won four of its past five games, but has lost some confidence over recent weeks with two consecutive losses. The Tigers did go down gallantly against the Swans last weekend, with their three big guns Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio all gathering plenty of the footy. However the loss means the Tigers are now a win and percentage outside of the top eight. They can’t afford to drop too many more games now if they want to feature in September.

Richmond had to take a 10-hour bus ride to get back from Sydney after last round’s game, which has surely had a massive effect on its preparation. However it wasn’t smooth travelling for the Lions either after they were stuck in Melbourne for a few extra days than planned. With the teams on a level playing field, expect the Tigers’ classy midfield to have a big impact on the game and steer the team to victory.

Best Head-To-Head Bet:

Richmond by 1-39 ($2.44 – Centrebet)

Also Sportingbet Australia are doing a first goal scorer special on the AFL, on top of the usual first goal scorer payout. If your first goal scorer bet scores the second goal, the guys at Sportingbet will pay you out as well! If he kicks the first two, they will pay you double! Get on!

Other Suggested Bets:

First Goal Scorer – Jack Riewoldt or Jonathan Brown on Sportingbet

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