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AFL Round 21 Weekend Betting Preview & Odds

Fri, Aug 12, 1:19pm by Kevin Pitstock presents “Crashing the Banner”………an early bird look at the weekend’s AFL.

Saints v Magpies Betting Preview & Market Odds

The Saints are back in town and playing at their beloved Etihad Stadium looking for their seventh win in a row. The problem for them is they meet their nemesis from last year’s Grand Final, a rampaging Magpies outfit.

It’s not often a side can be at such big odds in the vein of form the Saints are in, but this is a special Magpies team. They should maintain their position on top of the ladder and put an end to the winning streak but as it is at Etihad and not the MCG, our traders aren’t that confident in them covering the line.

    Form Stats

  • St Kilda has won the last two encounters at Etihad Stadium
  • St Kilda has won its last 8 opening quarters
  • Collingwood has won 6 of its past 7 games at Etihad stadium, its last loss was to St Kilda in Round 3 last season
  • St Kilda – 6.35 – 1.92 (+37.5)
    Collingwood – 1.12 – 1.92 (-37.5)

Dockers v Blues Betting Preview & Market Odds

The Dockers have lost their last three matches and are limping to the end of the season. They play the Blues who are in the opposite position, ramping up after winning their last three. Big Aaron Sandilands has been named to play which will help the Dockers cause, but he has missed a lot of football and will be underdone.

The Dockers record at home isn’t as bad as it is on the road, but they have had too many players missing to keep their spot in the eight. After this week they will be staring at finishing outside the eight. The traders are keen on the Blues to cover the line here.

    Form Stats

  • Fremantle have won 12 of the last 14 encounters
  • Fremantle has won just 6 opening quarters this season
  • Carlton have scored from 55% of inside 50’s in the past 6 weeks, ranked no 1 in the AFL
  • Fremantle – 2.95 – 1.92 – (+16.5)
    Carlton – 1.42 – 1.92 – (-16.5)

Hawks v Power Betting Preview & Market Odds

The Hawks host the Power on Saturday afternoon and regardless of the expected Hawks victory, is this day Buddy Franklin final busts the shackles and kicks a huge bag of goals and in doing so breaks away from Jack Riewoldt and wins the Coleman Medal. It is certainly set up for him with the mid-field preparing for a record amount of possession.

It is never a good sign when a side is forced to make eight changes which the Power have. The Hawks won’t take this easy and will win comfortably but this is not a betting proposition.

    Form Stats

  • Port Adelaide have won 4 of the 6 matches played at the MCG
  • Hawthorn average the most disposals (397) and are the most efficient (75%) in the AFL
  • Port Adelaide recorded just 6 scoring shots last week, the lowest since 1971
  • Hawthorn – 1.01 – 1.92 (-78.5)
    Port Adelaide – 21.00- 1.92 (+78.5)

Bulldogs v Bombers Betting Preview & Market Odds

The Bombers last kick win over the Swans was a lucky one, but it has set them on the right course to the finals. They continue to get personnel back, this week Pears is an important inclusion to cover Barry Hall.

The Bulldogs are coming off a rest with the bye but the last month will be academic for them as they will miss the finals so they may experiment with some youth. The cue may well be in the rack for the Dogs so our traders suggest jumping on the Bombers as the bet of the week.

    Form Stats

  • Western Bulldogs have won 7 of the last 9 encounters
  • Essendon has scored 27% of its goals from outside 50 in the past 5 weeks, ranked no 1
  • Western Bulldogs – 2.10 – 1.92 (+5.5)
    Essendon – 1.74 – 1.92 (-5.5)

Lions v Suns Q Clash Betting Preview & Market Odds

The Lions host the Suns in the second Q Clash seeking revenge for their shock defeat in the inaugural encounter. That game had many individual highlights but history is not likely to repeat here as both teams are tired and struggling for consistency.

Gary Ablett comes back for the Suns which is crucial, but Zac Smith is exhausted which Matthew Leunberger can exploit. The Lions keep getting close then fading so they will be keen to win here, although if the Suns are close at three quarter time they will be hard to hold out.

There is a lot of pride at stake here, not to mention the winner avoids a possible wooden spoon. The traders think the Lions will even up the score here.

    Form Stats

  • Brisbane has won just 5 final quarters this season
  • Gold Coast finished with 50 fewer inside 50’s than the Cats last week, the biggest differential ever recorded.
  • Brisbane – 1.41 – 1.92 (-17.5)
    Gold Coast – 2.90 – 1.92 (+17.5)

Demons v Eagles Betting Preview & Market Odds

The Demons are home to the Eagles on Sunday but given their record there, it will feel like an away game. After the turmoil of the sacking of Dean Bailey nothing seems to have changed much although the signing of Jack Trengove during the week was a positive.

Josh Kennedy is set to return for the Eagles after the “tennis ball incident” and other selections are the key here. If the man that threw the tennis ball, Dean Cox is passed fit and Mark Jamar doesn’t play for the Demons, then our traders are very confident that the Eagles will win and cover the line.

    Form Stats

  • Melbourne hasn’t won at Etihad Stadium since Rd 19 2007
  • Melbourne has averaged 30 fewer contested possessions in the past 5 weeks, ranked 17th
  • West Coast has won the contested possession in all but 4 games this season.
  • Melbourne – 4.25 – 1.92 (+28.5)
    West Coast – 1.23 – 1.92 (-28.5)

Tigers v Swans Betting Preview & Market Odds

The final two games on Sunday aren’t much to get enthused about. The Swans will beat the Tigers but the question is by how much. The Tigers have lost 6 games in a row and are coming back from another loss in the West, but they do meet the Swans at the MCG a venue they rarely visit. The traders aren’t keen and suggest punters pass here.

    Form Stats

  • Richmond has been behind at ¾ time 10 times this season, coming back to win once
  • Richmond finished with just 35 inside 50’s last week , its equal fewest this season
  • Sydney has won 6 of its past 7 final quarters
  • Richmond – 3.65 – 1.92 (+22.5)
    Sydney – 1.30 – 1.92 (-22.5)

Cats v Crows Betting Preview & Market Odds

The Crows have won two in a row under new coach Mark Bickley. The cold hard facts are that they beat the bottom side Port Adelaide and fell in against a tiring Lions last week. This week they meet the Cats who are coming off two wins in a row to the tune of 336 points.

There has been some early money for the Crows at the plus. This is on the back of comments from Cats coach Chris Scott that he is now in a position to rest players between now and the finals.

Scarlett is out but their talent pool is deep at ‘catland’. The traders suggest that the early money is folly and the Crows will get a nice wakeup call here and the Cats will make it three big wins in a row.

    Form Stats

  • Geelong has won 6 of the last 7 encounters.
  • Geelong has averaged 15 marks inside 50 per game this season, ranked number 1
  • Adelaide recorded a season high 61 inside 50’s last week against the Lions.
  • Adelaide – 9.50 – 1.92 (+50.5)
    Geelong – 1.06 – 1.92 (-50.5)

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