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AFL Round 3: Melbourne v Brisbane Lions Betting Preview – Sunday 10 April, 2011

Sun, Apr 10, 9:58am by Kevin Pitstock

When and Where:

1.10pm at MCG
Overall Head-To-Head:

Melbourne – 20
Brisbane Lions – 15
Draws – 0
Last Time They Met:

Melbourne 11.8 (74) defeated Brisbane Lions 9.10 (64), round 18, 2010 at the Gabba
Recent Form:

Melbourne – DL
Brisbane Lions – LL
Current Ladder Positions:

Melbourne – 12th (0-1-1)
Brisbane Lions – 15th (0-2)
Key Players:

Jack Grimes is being touted as the future captain of the Melbourne Football Club. The 21-year-old’s class, poise and excellent decision making off half-back make him the perfect on-field leader. Grimes is averaging 22 disposals per game in the 2011 season so far and if he can get free in defence today, expect him to rack up even more touches.

Joel Patful is perhaps the most underrated player in the Lions’ line-up. He’s not an attractive player to watch and he doesn’t get a lot of the ball, but you can always rely on him to do a defensive job on one of the opposition’s key forward’s. The centre-half-back will have his hands full today because he is likely to match up on the exciting Liam Jurrah – good luck!
Melbourne Team Changes:

IN –Austin Wonaemirri, Cale Morton and Jordan Gysberts
OUT – Addam Maric, Neville Jetta and Ricky Petterd
Brisbane Lions Team Changes:

IN – Aaron Cornelius and Jared Polec
OUT – Amon Buchanan and Broc McCauley
New Players:

BRISBANE LIONS – Jared Polec (18, Woodville West-Torrens)
Who Wins?

Both of these teams put in extremely disappointing performances last weekend, but now have a great opportunity to make amends at the MCG on Sunday.

Some say Melbourne’s loss to Hawthorn was a more disappointing display than Gold Coast’s thrashing at the hands of the Blues. The Dees let the Hawks have 19 scoring shots in the third quarter, while they only managed two themselves. Sure, the Hawks were a class above them – as they should be too – but to let the margin blow out that far is inexcusable.

There were a couple of positive signs to come out of the game for the Demons though, especially during the first half. Colin Sylvia returned to some form to finish the match with 26 disposals and eight inside 50’s, while Luke Tapscott backed up his impressive debut performance in the first round with a 23-possessions game. 

Without Jonathon Brown up forward, Brisbane is a wooden spoon team. The skipper’s absence means the Lions’ forward structure is completely dysfunctional. When players look up in search of a forward target, all they see is a clueless Mitch Clark and youngster Broc McCauley running at them. A team simply can’t rely on those two to kick goals.

However the Lions look reasonably solid in defence and through the midfield. Jed Adcock is a tremendous leader on the field and he tried to lift his team all day last weekend with a classy 26-disposal effort. Veteran Simon Black also continues to perform at an incredibly high standard, despite being 32-years-old.

But the young Dees will be keen to prove they are still a chance to make the top eight this season. Expect them to run out very comfortable winners against a dismal Lions outfit.
Best Head-To-Head Bet:

Melbourne by 40+ points ($2.30 – Centrebet)

Also Sportingbet Australia is doing a first goal scorer special on the AFL, on top of the usual first goal scorer payout.  If your first goal scorer bet scores the second goal, the guys at Sportingbet will pay you out as well! If he kicks the first two, they will pay you double! Get on!
Other Suggested Bets:

First Goal Scorer – Jack Watts ($17.00 – Sportingbet)

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