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AFL Weekend Preliminary Final Betting, Preview & Odds

Fri, Sep 23, 5:26pm by Kevin Pitstock

It’s Preliminary Final weekend in Melbourne and it is the weekend that is widely regarded as the best to go to the footy, before the Grand Final is overrun by interstate visitors and corporates.

The Magpies and Cats loom as obvious favourites and their form should see them through to a special Grand Final, but punters thinking with their heart rather than their head are hoping for an upset. The Hawks do have a good recent record against the Magpies while the Eagles have been hard to beat all season with only one loss of note from their 24 matches.

There is no question that the Magpies best football is better than the opposition’s. Are they playing at their best? That is a point up for debate, but for the Hawks to cause an upset they will be hoping so.

Collingwood v Hawthorn Betting Preview & Tips

Realistically if the Hawks are to win they will have to find a way through the Magpies brilliant defence. While Dawes and Cloke would appear to be too big and strong for the relatively inexperienced Hawks key defenders our traders think the game will be won and lost at the other end of the ground. Maxwell, Davis, Reid and O’Brien have formed a bond that is hard to break and that is the base from which the Magpies launch their attack through their more famous mid-field of Pendlebury, Swan and Thomas.

Franklin has been in the news again and despite being ‘crook’ during the week, punters can expect a big performance from him and his match up with Tarrant will be crucial. The Hawks have the midfield to match the Magpies especially physically with big bodies such as Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge and Sewell. The Magpies should make it through to another Grand Final but the Hawks start is value from a betting perspective.

Form Stats

  • Collingwood has been behind at ¾ time on just 3 occasions this year, winning once.
  • Hawthorn won 59 quarters in the H&A season , second only to Collingwood
  • Hawthorn have won 5 of the past 7 encounters
  • 19 of a possible 22 occasions, the side having the week off has been successful in the Preliminary Final

Betting

  • Collingwood – 1.28 – 1.92 (-24.5)
  • Hawthorn – 3.85 – 1.92 (+24.5)

Geelong v West Coast Betting Preview & Tips

On Saturday afternoon the Cats take on the Eagles knowing who will be their Grand Final opponent should they be successful. On form it is hard to go past the Cats as they are the form team of the finals, but the Eagles are an extremely tough team to put away. They can match the Cats ‘talls’ who were so impressive in defeating the Hawks and they have the grunt around the stoppages with Kerr, Priddis and Selwood working off Cox and Natanui to gain first use of the football.

The Cats will miss Menzel despite his inexperience, but with Corey coming back in coach Chris Scott gets a big game player back just at the right time. The week’s rest will be a bonus for the Cats with the Eagles coming off a tough win over the Blues. Our traders aren’t expecting an upset here, but like the magpies the Cats are no value and are effectively under the odds. Given that the Eagles have only been beaten once by more than 21 points this year the big start they are getting is the value bet for the match.

Form Stats

  • West Coast has won all 4 finals played between the two teams
  • Last Time they met at the MCG was the 1994 Grand final when West Coast won by 80 points
  • West Coast has been in front at half time on 17 occasions this year and won 16 times
  • Geelong has won 13 of its 14 second half quarters at the MCG this season
  • The winner of the second qualifying final has won 10 of 11 Preliminary Finals.

Betting

  • Geelong – 1.21 – 1.92 – (-28.5)
  • West Coast – 4.65 – 1.92 – (+28.5)

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