Fri, Feb 21, 4:43pm by Daryl Curnow
When: Saturday, February 22. First race starts at 1:40pm.
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Freshwater Storm resumes for trainer Tony Parker and the five-year-old is a perfect two from two at Caulfield. The ghostly grey gelding has won and placed three times in a fresh state and he should be ready to go with 3kg claimer Jordan Childs aboard. He is an eight-time race winner from 25 starts and he’s currently the equal third favourite at $6.
The favourite is Solsay who will need to do work from barrier 11 and the six-year-old has never won on this track. The Michael Kent-trained gelding ran two consecutive fourths earlier this campaign, one coming in a listed event and the other in a group three. He has some class about him but the wide draw makes it tough especially with an inexperience jockey in the saddle.
Kitten On The Run has had one start for Peter Moody since arriving from England mid 2013. The four-year-old arrived in Australia having won four from seven including a listed win over 1500 metres. His first run for Moody was a sixth at Flemington but he was blocked in the straight and ran home nicely. With that run under his belt his chances here appear bright at $5.50.
Recommended bet: Freshwater Storm to win ($6) at Sportsbet.com.au
Not Listenin’tome is the red-hot $1.90 favourite after a first up campaign featuring two wins and two placing’s. The Hawkes’-trained three-year-old won his first two career starts with consummate ease by a combined margin of 7.75 lengths. He then took on group company in the Red Anchor Stakes where he was extremely unlucky in finishing second behind Thermal Current. He then surprised many by running second to Zoustar in the Group One Coolmore Classic and he should be on the mark in this event.
Lion Of Belfort has fluctuated in the market throughout the day and has finally settled at $6 after getting as low as $4.80. The Mick Price-trained colt won the Blue Sapphire Stakes on this track last year, followed by a third in the Coolmore Classic. He was disappointing when fresh up at Caulfield earlier this month but his fresh stats don’t read well and he’s a much better horse second-up.
Thermal Current broke through for a tough win in the Group 3 Red Anchor Stakes at Moonee Valley when beating Notlistenin’tome. The Peter Moody-trained colt has only finished out of the money on two occasions and a similar effort is expected here.
Recommended bet: Notlistenin’tome to win ($1.90) at IASbet.com
Marianne has been bet early from $2.80 into $2.30 following an eye catching run for second at Caulfield last time out. The Michael Kent-trained filly was slow away and then blocked on the turn before flying home late to narrowly miss out. She put two wins together last preparation and she looks a smart bet in this.
Bound For Earth is a Group Two winning filly for John O’Shea who after travelling wide throughout in her last run, ran home strongly for fourth. The Northern Meteor filly is better suited to this distance and she is ideally weighted. James McDonald is in the saddle and he’s a big race rider who has had experience on the three-year-old in the past.
The underrated Spirits Dance is vying for four-straight wins and her latest win at Caulfield was by far the most impressive. Peter Moody says she has any amount of ability and he’s confident she can run out the 1400 metre trip. She isn’t bred to be special but it’s not easy to string wins together, however this field has more depth than it did last time out.
Recommended bet: Marianne to win ($2.30) at Sportsbet.com.au
Peter Snowden trains the $3.60 favourite in Deliberate after an easy 2.75-length win at Geelong. The Street Cry three-year-old ran on this track fresh up when finishing fourth and he relished the rise in trip and he will likely do the same here. This is a big step up from the maiden ranks but he looks above average.
Alpha Beat was strong over the concluding stages to nab Jade’s Boy on the post and he looks like coping with the rise in class. The Magnus three-year-old drops in weight and he should enjoy the rise in distance. He settled well back last time out and if the tempo is strong up front he will be finishing his race off stylishly.
Bring Something is still a maiden but he hasn’t raced out of group grade in his last four runs. He was an unlucky sixth in the Autumn Stakes at Caulfield after receiving very little room in the straight and he finished off his races well to end his previous campaign. They included a fourth in the Group 2 Stutt Stakes and seventh in the Victorian Derby. He looks to have great staying power and a win wouldn’t surprise.
Recommended bet: Bring Something to win ($5.50) at IASbet.com
Despite the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente drifting from his opening price of $2 to $2.50, we see the 2013 Melbourne Cup winner making a winning return to the track here. The six-year-old has only placed once from five starts when racing in a fresh state but he is clearly the best horse in the field and the distance isn’t too short. He won over 1600 metres last year and there is no reason as to why he can’t open his account in style here.
We noted that Pakal was a false favourite last time out at Caulfield and the five-year-old ran accordingly. The Mick Price-trained gelding was the $2 favourite but he could manage only a battling third behind Chase The Rainbow. He has won second up before and it might pay to watch any positive market moves in his favour.
Star Rolling ran second in the aforementioned race and he has the luxury of fitness under his belt. The four-year-old faces some seasoned opposition here but he has won just under half of his nine career starts and he is a decent place chance.
Recommended bet: Fiorente to win ($2.50) at Centrebet.com
Bull Point was very impressive when winning the Group 3 Manfred at Caulfield early in February and the three-year-old has been hyped in bucket loads. Ever since his amazing finish for third in the Group 1 Golden Rose at Rosehill, the Gai Waterhouse-trained colt has been earmarked for bigger things and he showed his real potential last time out. He faces the older horses here but also drops to a nice weight of 55.5kg with Damien Oliver aboard.
Moment Of Change finally got his deserved group one victory in the C.F Orr Stakes and there is no reason he can’t kick on from here. The Peter Moody-trained five-year-old is a perfect three from three on this track and he can overcome the big weight to score another win here. If he can set his own terms out in front he will be very hard to run down and he has been set as the narrow $2.80 favourite after opening at $2.60.
Sizzling has seemingly lost his sizzle but the Chris Waller-trained horse grinded home well for third in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes at Randwick. The seven time winner has won in excess of a million dollars so there is no denying his class but he will need to improve a few lengths to win here.
Recommended bet: Moment Of Change to win ($2.80) at IASbet.com
Rubick has drawn outside in barrier 10 but showed last time out at Caulfield that he has the early pace to overcome that. He’s an exciting two-year-old from the Gerald Ryan stable as he also showed in his debut run at Randwick where he won easily by 2.75 lengths. He ran a very slick first 600 metres last time out and he did look a little tired come the end of his run so expect Brenton Avdulla to try and give him some rest during the run.
Earthquake drifted out from equal favouritism with Rubick following the barrier draws as this talented filly has drawn barrier 15. There is no doubting her ability but she didn’t muster much speed from the barriers in her prelude run so she might have to settle back from the wide draw. The Peter Snowden-trained filly has won both of her two career starts and there is no doubt she has the ability to win this race but the draw does make it tough.
Jabali is an underrated type who finished second to Rubick in the prelude event for colts and geldings. The Mick Price-trained colt has drawn a peach in barrier three and Damien Oliver has elected to stick with the son of Exceed And Excel. If he starts better and finds a handy position he could have the speed to cause a boil over in the premier event.
Recommended bet: Rubick to win ($2.90) at IASbet.com
Lankan Rupee looked something special when winning the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield and in doing so he won his last four from five starts. The Mick Price-trained gelding has come of age when winning his last three including a win over the subsequent Lightning Stakes winner Snitzerland. He is a true professional and the $3.30 on offer looks generous.
Knoydart has also put three wins together and he couldn’t have been more impressive when destroying a handy field at Mornington. His turn of foot to win the Hareeba Stakes was quite astonishing and he will likely get a better run in transit from barrier five. He drops right down in weight for this which makes him a real threat to the favourite.
Shamal Wind rewarded her faithful punters with a narrow listed race win when paying $10. The small in stature mare shows glimpses of being very special but it’s her consistency that punters can’t wrap their head around. She is a five race winner from 14 starts and she has that explosive speed to overcome this large field.
Recommended bet: Knoydart to win ($6) at Sportsbet.com.au
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