Mon, Sep 22, 2:14pm by Mike Randall
SELWOOD? Ablett? Both?
In what looms as one of the most interesting Brownlow counts in recent memory, punters with online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au are tipping there will be more than one medallist crowned tonight.
Despite the bookmaker’s offer of a skinny $1.40 that there will be only one winner, the punters have jumped all over the $2.85 for there to be at least two winners – In fact, 95 per cent of the money that has been laid on this market has been put on the $2.85.
Imagine it, the little master Gary Ablett, once Joel Selwood’s chief mentor at Geelong, going back to back and being joined on the stage by his former apprentice as joint winners at the end of the count.
It would be fitting, considering the brilliant seasons that pair has enjoyed.
Overall, Selwood will enter the night as the $2.65 favourite ahead of Ablett $4.25, Port Adelaide’s dynamite mid – forward Robbie Gray $6.50, bullish Sydney midfielder Josh Kennedy $10 and Hawthorn hard man Jordan Lewis $11.
Big Buddy Sydney’s Lance Franklin is also in the market at $16.
“Can Gary hang on? Will Selwood’s mid-season form slump cost him? Can Buddy win it as a key position player?,” Sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson mused.
“It really will be an interesting count and, at the moment, punters can’t split the top hopes.
“It’s been an interesting last 48 hours.
“Usually there is a big go for one player, but that hasn’t been the case yet.
“Selwood is the best backed and will be starting as the favourite unless there is a massive push on Kennedy or Gray.
“There is strong support for Gray, Kennedy and Buddy.”
Studious punters who got on Ablett and Selwood early are set reap rich rewards. One grabbed the Cats’ captain at $10 to win $2,500, while another snagged Ablett at $8 to win $3,200. Other punters jumped on Gray, $50 at $501, Lewis, $100 at $251 and Dyson Heppell (same bet).
One punter is tipping the mother of all upsets, betting $400 on Western Bulldogs clearance king Tom Liberatore at the massive odds of $251, for a return of over $100,000.
Unless he knows something none of us do, it’s a little akin to using $100 notes as wash cloths.
Other odd bets of note include bets of $50 on each of Jack Watts and Jesse White, both at $501, while someone had $20 on Tendai Mzungu at $1001 and another had $5 on Kane Cornes, also at those odds.
Selwood is the popular pick, and it would be a richly-deserved reward to add to his impressive footballing CV. But there’s a bit of romance about Ablett making it Charlie number three.
He’s already one of football’s all time great players and has ticked pretty much every box there is on his AFL journey.
Had he not wrecked his shoulder in round 16, it may have been tough to get odds on him to win the Brownlow – he’d have done it in a canter.
But, alas, that’s not the case and its making for one of the toughest Brownlow Medal races to pick in many years.
Selwood had a strong start to the season, but would have had Stevie Johnson nicking votes off him early, before struggling for the best part of two months while playing injured, and then coming home like a steam train with a series of superb performances, carrying Geelong on his shoulders.
While Ablett missed the last seven weeks, he may have piled on as many as seven best on ground performances. He probably has a little more competition from his developing Gold Coast teammates in Dion Prestia, Harley Bennell and Jaeger O’Meara, but we reckon the little master is still the umpires’ darling.
The other guy we really like is the curly headed one from West Coast, Matt Priddis at $12 at Sportsbet.
Despite the knock on him as someone who finds a lot of the ball, but doesn’t do much with it, Priddis is projected to get more than 20 votes by the experts. The Eagles only just dipped out on finals and he is always under the umpires’ nose. There simply aren’t many others nicking votes off him that makes us think he is a big chance. Gets 25 or more disposals nearly every time they win and gets 30 plus when they lose, so is a chance of grabbing a few one votes throughout the year.
We’re going to have two multis – the moral and the miracle.
The tips below are for the vote leaders at each individual club.
The Moral multi
We’re not touching the $1.01s of Ablett, Selwood, etc. We want some sort of value. Hopefully we can steer you in the right direction.
Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide) $1.42 – Just a dynamic player. Maybe a little bit down, but the umpires are a forgiving lot. Had a purple patch through April and May that should be more than enough to ward off Rory Sloane.
Callan Ward (Greater Western Sydney) $1.30 – Took his game to another level this season and deserves to top the expansion side’s count. Added leadership and toughness to the Giants midfield and half back set ups.
Bryce Gibbs (Carlton) $1.27 – In a similar sort of boat to Ward in that he really stepped up and showed the consistency many have been expecting from him throughout his career. Marc Murphy is always a big danger, but Gibbs was the Blues’ best player and, as such, should top the table.
Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) $1.37 – The main worry here is Dayne Beams and then day light – Dane Swan isn’t pinching many votes. Beams had a brilliant season, but Pendles, despite a poor close, is a Rolls Royce and should have done enough to catch the eye of the officialdom.
Josh Kennedy (Sydney) $1.22 – The Swans are always hard to tip, but Kennedy, despite the looming shadow of Buddy, is their best bet. Found more of the ball and showed more consistency than any other Swan. Is Luke Parker the biggest worry? He had a monster year, but Kennedy has history behind him.
Five legs at $3.88 with Sportsbet.com.au
The Miracle Multi
We can all retire if this one gets up.
We’ve had a hard look at the form and we reckon all four of these men have legitimate claims on leading their team’s votes at the end of the count.
Brett Deledio (Richmond) $7 – Cotchin the main danger, with Martin to a lesser extent, but Deledio finished the season as well as anyone in the competition as the Tigers went on their big streak. We reckon there are at least four best on grounds in his last eight and that makes Deledio the value bet of the count.
Matty Boyd (Western Bulldogs) $5 – We think the bloke who dropped $400 on Libba is going to do his dough. Boyd has the runs on the board and we think he can nip Libba and Macrae.
Nick Dal Santo (North Melbourne) $4.50 – Boomer has had a strong year, but his penchant for belting people might work against him. I’ve never liked Dal Santo as much as the umpires, felt he was more flair than substance, but looks are appealing.
Dom Tyson (Melbourne) $2.65 – Hard nut Nathan Jones is the Dees’ man to beat, but Tyson started the season like a house on fire. Despite the Dees only winning four games, we reckon he can nick enough ones and twos to get the job done.
Four legs at $417.37 with Sportsbet
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