Fri, May 16, 12:30pm by Daryl Curnow
Where: Doomben, Brisbane.
When: Saturday, May 17. First race starts at 12:10pm. Quaddie starts on race five at 2:30pm.
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The third leg of the Brisbane Winter Carnival moves to Doomben where the featured race is the $500,000 Doomben Cup. The premier staying event highlights the eight-race card and we give you all the odds, analysis, best bets and quaddie tips from the day’s action.
Right down the bottom of the page is Monbazillac who ran a strong second placing at the Gold Coast last time out. The Peter Moody-trained gelding is second-up here where he holds a record of one win from three starts and he does rise in grade for this. In saying that, this field isn’t the toughest rating 95 you’ll ever see and the son of Fastnet Rock has pushed some pretty good horses to their limits in the past. The track will likely be wet again and that experience in the heavy going will assist him here.
Time To Plunder is the current $5.50 favourite following a last start win at Eagle Farm. The Liam Berchley-trained gelding looks like a good statistical bet and he is well placed in this event. He is a six race winner from only 20 starts which includes a further five placings and he has won two from his last five. The five-year-old has also won on five occasions over this distance and he has placed in both starts on this track. He drops down 3kg in weight from his last start win and that makes him tough to beat.
Mishani Stealth is an underrated type who brings in very good fresh up form for this. The four-year-old has had three starts in a fresh state for two wins and one placing. He has won and placed twice in four starts over the distance and he has won on both good and heavy tracks. The Les Ross-trained gelding is making a step up in class but he has more than enough potential to overcome that.
Best bet: Mishani Stealth to win ($17) at Sportsbet.com.au
Goodbye Kevin is a rather short favourite at $4 but the two-year-old did finish well for third in the Group Three Ken Russell Stakes. The Anthony Honess-trained colt won on debut at Tamworth before finishing fourth and third at his next two starts. He started as a $41 shot at the Gold Coast which shows that his $4 quote is not good value. We get the feeling his latest run was better than expected and that he might find a few others too tough in this.
Bassillique was an impressive winner on debut at Doomben in the Phelan Ready Stakes at listed level. The Toby Edmonds-trained colt then ran in a Group Three race on this track but he was severely hampered at the start and he never came on. The glaring positive is that Nash Rawiller has been engaged to ride and his experience will be a factor in this. There is a fair amount of unknown about this colt but he is probably worth the risk at nice odds of $10.
Another at good odds of $11 is Pinch River, a Robert Heathcote-trained gelding who won his first two career races. The son of Denman won his second race by a massive six lengths before taking on Group Three company on this track. He finished sixth behind Unencumbered, who would later win the Magic Millions in which Pinch River finished a disappointing 13th. He has a wide drawn to contend with but he has a good rider in the saddle and he’s not without a place chance.
Best bet: Bassillique to win ($10) at IASbet.com
Kalabek is the current $3.40 favourite after opening at $3.50. The Brent Stanley-trained filly won her only career start at Caulfield by half-a-length and Victorian form usually bodes well in Brisbane. The daughter of Wanted ran a credible time of 59.87 over the 1000 metres which is fair for a dead track rating but she will need to be a touch better to win this. Nash Rawiller rides but she has drawn barrier nine and race tactics will play a big part.
Freezethemillions has always been a likable filly for trainer Matthew Dunn and she now has the fitness to show her real ability. The two-year-old by Freeze has had two runs this campaign with her best effort coming last time out in the Group Three Ken Russell Stakes where she finished strongly for sixth. She got through the heavy track well which is encouraging and she represents great value at $15 with the in-form Ric McMahon in the saddle.
Shinji hasn’t done much wrong in three starts, winning them all by a combined margin of over five lengths. The Falvelon filly does rise in class for this but you can’t deny winning form and she deserves to be well fancied in the market. Her opening quote of $4 hasn’t moved and we’re expecting that price to drift a little come post time, but she is a good chance once again.
Best bet: Freezethemillions to win ($15) at Sportsbet.com.au (better than $14 being offered elsewhere)
Miniature was unlucky when finishing sixth in the James Carr Stakes at Randwick but she should find this field much more to her liking. The John O’Shea-trained daughter of Exceed And Excel finished third behind Politeness when racing fresh two starts back and that form stands out. The three-year-old is a three race winner from only eight starts and she will get the services of James McDonald with only 54kg on her back. That makes her a weighting special and she will be awfully tough to beat.
Srikandi has an impeccable record of three wins from four starts including the Listed Silk Stocking which she won at the Gold Coast last start. The Ciaron Maher-trained filly came to Brisbane and won in emphatic style by 2.25 lengths in the heavy going, showing that she can win on any surface. This field is a rise in class from last time out but she will once again carry 54kg which is a relief considering she never carried less than 56kg in Melbourne. She has drawn well in barrier two but she has already had four starts this campaign and she is due to get tired soon.
She’s Clean couldn’t have been more disappointing at her last campaign where she ran sixth and 10th in two starts. The Chris Waller-trained five-year-old looked to have special ability early in her career, having won eight starts, but she has since gone off the boil. At her best she would win this race easily and she did finish second at her most recent trial, but for the meantime she is a watch horse at odds of $8.
Hucklebuck travels east by the way of Melbourne from Adelaide and he brings superb form into this stakes race. The three-year-old is already a winner of five races including the Group Three CS Hayes at Flemington two starts back. The Phillip Stokes-trained gelding didn’t quite get things his way in the Group One Australian Guineas but he will find this much easier. He is unbeaten in two starts when fresh and he won a trial leading into this so the $2.80 on offer is on the mark.
Dothraki has a wide draw to contend with but he was a strong winner at the Gold Coast and he faces similar opposition here. The Gerald Ryan-trained colt has drawn barrier 12 but Nash Rawiller is aboard and he has ridden the Mossman colt in his last four starts. Another positive is that he handles heavy tracks and horses by Mossman are reveling in the wet conditions of late. He does rise in distance for this but he has won over 1400 metres before so that shouldn’t pose a problem.
Sir Moments is a Choisir gelding who won by 1.5 lengths last time out but he will find his tougher. The Steven O’Dea-trained gelding put two listed wins together this time last year and he looks to be getting back to his best form. He is unbeaten on the course, distance and second-up and he has also never lost on a slow or heavy track. The stats say he is a good bet but he looks slightly outclassed.
Best bet: Hucklebuck to win ($2.80) at Sportsbet.com.au
If the rain comes and we get a heavy track then Arabian Gold is a standout bet at $2.50. The David Vandyke-trained filly has won her last two races at Randwick, both at Group Three level, and she is unbeaten in five starts on a slow or heavy track. The three-year-old simply loves the wet and it’s hard to find a reason as to why she won’t win again here. There is currently rain in the area and a 50% chance of rain on Saturday and her price will only drop if it does rain. If the track is good then it might pay to go elsewhere but she is classy on all levels.
Hera is a former New Zealand filly now trained by Kris Lees who was solid in finishing fourth at Randwick last time out. The three-year-old is second-up where she has won two from three starts and with a touch more fitness under her belt she will be tough to beat. The O’Reilly filly has won both starts on a heavy track and from a good draw she should be able to find a nice position in the run. She opened as the second favourite at $4 and that price hasn’t budged.
Asadauskaite is a Michael Moroney-trained filly who has drawn wide but she will drop back from barrier 15 and storm home like she did last time out. She rises in distance for this and her breeding suggests this will only be a positive. The three-year-old is by Pentire and they are winning staying races all across Australia. She has only one win to her name but she is a good place chance in a tough field.
Best bet: Arabian Gold to win ($2.50) at Sportingbet.com (better than the $2.35 offered elsewhere)
A very even field contests the Cup but we were impressed with the way Junoob finished off his race over 1800 metres at the Gold Coast. The Chris Waller-trained gelding has won three of his last five starts and this race looks right up his alley. The distance was too short last time out and he’s back to his pet distance here where he has won on five occasions with a further three placings. He can handle all track conditions but his wins on rain affected ground have been very impressive. His opening quote of $6 has been cut to $5 and that represents good value.
Akzar put in a freakish effort to win the Warrnambool Cup by six lengths and even though this is a massive rise in class, the seven-year-old gelding should be respected on that effort alone. The Darren Weir-trained gelding ran second behind the very talented Our Voodoo Prince earlier this season and that form should stack up well for this. He has won four times and placed on eight occasions over this distance so that won’t be a worry.
Streama won well last start in the Group Two Hollindale Stakes and this is to be her final race for Guy Walter. The five-year-old is a nine race winner and she has earned in excess of $2.3 million so she deserves to be the $4.40 favourite. Her form prior to last time out wasn’t great but she tries hard in every start and you can’t discount her in any race, let alone her last.
Best bet: Junoob to win ($5) at Sportsbet.com.au
Someday is second-up for trainer Kelso Wood and his first up run this campaign was good in behind Temple Of Boom is the Group Two Victory Stakes. This is a massive step down in class and his form second-up isn’t anything to be concerned about. The five-year-old has won once and placed twice from four starts and he has won an amazing six times at Doomben. This course specialist is at good odds of $5 and he looks like a great bet to end the day.
Fillydelphia is an eleven win mare who wasn’t far off them in the Prime Minister’s Cup at the Gold Coast. The six-year-old has won six times on this track with another three placings to boot and she can handle any type of track condition. Her latest win was five starts back and her best form would take her very close to winning this.
Dances On Stars is only a four-win mare but the four-year-old’s win last start was good and he is again well favoured in the market. The Gerald Ryan-trained gelding is currently at $6.50 and any rain won’t dampen his chances as he has won and placed on a heavy track.
Best bet: Someday to win ($5) at Sportsbet.com.au
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