Mon, Jun 30, 4:27pm by Daryl Curnow
What: Germany vs. Algeria
When: Tuesday, July 1st. Kick off at 6am AEST
Where: Porto Alegre, Brazil
GERMANY are unbackable head-to-head favourites for this clash of Europe vs. Africa, so we will instead look at the handicap betting markets, in particular the Asian handicap betting market, which allows punters to get aboard Germany -1.5, instead of -2 like other options only allow.
Asian handicap market*
Germany -1.5 – $1.77
Algeria +1.5 – $1.93
Germany should win this game outright, and they’re $1.13 to progress to the quarter finals, which is too short to tip confidently, but the -1.5 offers good value for the German’s.
Germany -2 – $3
Germany -3 – $5.50
Algeria +2 – $1.91
Algeria +3 – $1.30
You can either go for broke or take a more conservative option with these markets. If you fancy Germany to annihilate Algeria then the -2 and -3 markets are a great value option for exotic punters. On the other side of the coin, if you think Algeria aren’t at all that bad, the +2 and +3 options provide more security. The World Cup hasn’t produced many blow outs to date in the final 16 games, so this option could be a nice multi-bet booster.
First things first – it would be a massive shock to see Germany lose this game, seeing as they’re one of the favourites to take out the World Cup title. However, in three games to date they have only covered a -1.5 goal spread once, which came against Portugal in their opening clash.
The Germans have since posted a 2-2 draw with Ghana, a game in which they were losing at one point, only to concede a late goal for the draw. They followed that win up with a solid 1-0 win over USA in testing conditions. They didn’t need the win in that game and we have no doubts they would have covered a larger spread had they needed to.
There is however one stat that the German’s won’t want to focus on. Algeria has a 2-0 record against them, outscoring Germany 4-1 in those two match-ups. Germany won’t be too worried, as they have a wealth of talent to call upon in big moments.
Tip: Germany (-1.5) – $1.77 @Sportsbet.com.au
Algeria had a good win in its second round match-up against Korea Republic, winning 4-2 and ultimately giving them a chance to make the finals despite losing their opening match to Belgium 1-2. Their gritty come-from-behind draw against Russia was enough to make it through and they have proved to be tougher than expected.
Coming into the finals they won their preliminary group but still went under the radar throughout the tournament. Their chances in beating Germany rely on their defense as it will get tested on multiple occasions. With the line at +1.5 in the Asian handicap market, it allows only a one goal difference, but taking the shorter odds for +2 and +3 is definitely worth laying more money down for.
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