Wed, Oct 30, 4:41pm by Rob Sheeley
The pre-season favourite, the Western Sydney Wanderers, have again regained that tag on the back of an impressive 2-0 win over Sydney FC last week. The Brisbane Roar went from the first line of betting to the third line after an upset loss to the Melbourne Victory.
Betting trends from punters tell us that the competition rests between just four sides at this early juncture. The Wanderers ($4.50), Mariners ($5), Victory ($5.50) and Roar ($5.50) are the only teams in single figures in terms of premiership betting at Sportsbet.com.au. That gap may widen even more this week with all top four sides playing teams placed outside of the leading quartet.
In multi’s this week I’d definitely anchor the Wanderers at $1.44 and Mariners at $1.80.
We had a terrific week on the punt last week with all of our selections in our feature match being winning bets. These included the handicap bet on the Wanderers at $3.10. We also predicted the correct exact score of 2-0 in the match.
This week’s feature preview match is the clash between the second-placed competition favourite, the Wanderers and the fifth-placed Adelaide United. The preview will include all the key analysis and betting prices as well as free tips. Keep an eye on our sporting blog or an update.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at Round 4.
7:30pm AET, Friday November 1 at Pirtek Stadium
The Wanderers will return to a packed Pirtek Stadium this Friday night to tackle the fifth-placed Adelaide United. The sides have only clashed three times in the Wanderers’ short history with the Wanderers holding a 2-1 ascendancy. Punters are all over Western Sydney after its convincing win last week and they are currently the shortest-priced team this week at $1.44.
The Wanderers showed glimpses of the brilliance that their fans demand last week when they dominated their crosstown rivals Sydney FC from go to woah. The imperious nature of their victory was enough to see them re-installed as premiership favourite at $4.50. The form of superstar import Shinji Ono was one of the highlights for the Wanderers, who will expect to continue to build on their momentum this week.
Adelaide United were outplayed last week by the Central Coast Mariners in a 1-0 loss. The loss could have been much worse but for the Mariners lack of accuracy in front of goal. It is no coincidence that punters remain unconvinced that Adelaide are the real deal – its $12 premiership price indicative of that. They will need to improve sharply to win this one.
Prediction – Wanderers by two goals.
5:30pm AET, Saturday November 2 at NIB Stadium
Sydney FC’s start to the season has been less than flattering and it gets no easier this week when they travel to Western Australia to take on the Perth Glory, a side that began resurrecting its season last week.
Sydney has a good record against Perth with an 11-5 winning history against them. But, the punters have come hard for Perth, which will start clear favourites against a side that is just one place higher than them on the ladder.
Perth injected life into its season last weekend with a 1-0 win over the Melbourne Heart. It was its first win of the season and the perfect opportunity to ignite a climb up the ladder. Punters have not seen the win as a silver bullet as the Glory remain at a steady $15 for the premiership.
The possible return of the Glory’s injured star striker Shane Smeltz could provide a big boost for the Perth side, should he manage to take the field.
Sydney FC’s 2-0 loss to the Wanderers last week validated its placing well outside the top four teams in premiership betting. This week’s outcome should provide an indicator of whether they will competitive in the middle tier of the ladder or if they’re in for a long season.
Punters have gone colder than a night in the Antarctic on Sydney with the sky blues drifting from $8.50 out to $15 in premiership betting this week.
Should Alessandro Del Piero return for Sydney this week, they may present some value. There looks to be some good value in the draw for this encounter.
Prediction – Draw.
7:45pm AET, Saturday November 2 at Hubter Stadium
This is the match known as the F3 Derby with the two sides from northern New South Wales going head to head. Historically, it is hard the split the teams, but there is a worrying sign for the Mariners, which only has a 28 per cent win record at Hubter Stadium.
I think the Mariners are the bet of the week at $1.80, given that it’s third-place taking on the tenth-placed side, who are yet to register a win.
The Jets managed a draw in New Zealand last weekend against the Phoenix. It was a result that the Newcastle side may be happy with but, then again, it’s only a draw with the second last team on the ladder. The Jets face some top-quality opposition this week in the form of the reigning premiers – a side which looks destined for the top four. The Jets are the despised outsiders of the competition in premiership betting at $26 and will need to show more to win this game.
The Mariners were far from their best last week, but still managed to defeat Adelaide United 1-0. Coach Graham Arnold wouldn’t have been pleased with the number of opportunities the Mariners squandered in that game – expect his side to be a lot more proficient in this clash. Punters like the Mariners in terms of premiership betting and they currently sit on the second line at $5.00. I expect them to be winning here.
Prediction – Mariners by a goal.
5:00pm AET, Sunday November 3 at Suncorp Stadium
After a shock loss in round three, the Brisbane Roar will look to reassert their authority in the competition this week against the win-less Melbourne Heart. The Roar have a positive 4-3 win record against the Heart, who’s recent form on the road has been abysmal. In fact, the Heart haven’t won an away game since October 2012.
The Roar went down by a solitary goal last weekend against the Melbourne Victory. It was a game in which they were far from outplayed, but just failed to convert any of the chances they worked hard to create. They are sure to come out firing this week and look a super bet in this game at $1.44. It may also be a good time to have something on them to win the premiership. With that market still reasonably volatile, the $5.50 currently available may disappear quickly after a win in this game.
The Heart maintained their seemingly-eternal drought on the road last week when they were beaten 1-0 by the Glory in Perth. In comparison, this week’s task looks harder than an algebra test to a two year old as they take on a genuine top four side. This looks a massive ask for the $15 premiership outsider, which is likely to struggle.
Prediction – Roar by two goals.
7:30pm AET, Monday November 4 at Etihad Stadium
Wellington will traverse the Tasman this week to take on the Melbourne Victory, who will be without their former coach Ange Postecoglou for the first time, after he took up the role of head coach with the Australian Socceroos.
The Victory sent Postecoglou out in style with an upset 1-0 win over the Roar last weekend. They have a tremendous 10-2 win record over the Phoenix and should be able to improve that in this match. The Victory have come right into the third line of premiership betting at $5.50 and it would be no surprise to see them tighten up even more with a good showing here.
The Phoenix were a little disappointing in a game they were expected to win last weekend. They drew 0-0 with the last placed Newcastle Jets, which is hardly a glowing reference for a match like this. They have, however, managed to defend reasonably-well against both the Mariners and Wanderers, which could bring the draw into calculations at $3.75 but, in reality, the Victory should be able to get the job done.
Prediction – Victory by one goal.
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