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AFL Best Bets Round 3: Swans to continue Buckley’s misery

Wed, Apr 5, 4:50pm by Head Editor

AFL Round Two was much better result for the punters with the favourites saluting in eight of the nine games. The pick of the games was the Grand Final rematch on Friday night which the Dogs won impressively.

The Hawthorn-Adelaide match on Saturday was another match that caught the eye, as was the thriller at Etihad on Sunday when the Cats pipped the Roos.

Round Three kicks off on Friday night when Collingwood head to Sydney to play the Swans, with neither side opening their account yet, it’s a very early final – especially for the Pies.

North Melbourne ($5.25) host the Giants ($1.16) on Saturday at Hobart’s Blundstone Arena, where the line of 30.5 points might give some value for the Kangas.

Meanwhile, the Tigers ($2.60) face their toughest test of the season so far when they welcome the Eagles ($1.50) to the home of football. Two hours later, just a few kilometres down the road, Geelong will go in as heavy favourites against an undermanned Melbourne outfit at Etihad Stadium.

WATCH: Our Preview of AFL Round 3

The biggest fixture of the weekend comes on Saturday night when the top two teams on the ladder meet in the Showdown at the Adelaide Oval.

While that blockbuster is taking place, the reigning Premiers head west to take on the Dockers at Domain Stadium. Freo were terrible last week and the punters have jumped off. They’re at $4.75 with the Dogs at the short-priced quote of $1.19.

We had a solid profit of 35% last week, with four of our five best bets saluting. Here’s our best bets for Round Three:

Sydney v Collingwood, Friday April 7, 7:50pm, SCG

Two teams who are yet to register a win in 2017 are set to go head-to-head at the SCG on Friday night, with the loser in serious trouble, especially if that loser is Collingwood.

Sportsbet is confident the loser will be Collingwood, and has installed them as a $3.55 outsider with the Swans – who haven’t lost three in a row to start the season since 1999 – a rock-solid favourite at $1.30.

Collingwood will enjoy getting out of the Melbourne bubble this weekend, a bubble that’s already – after just two games – calling for coach Nathan Buckley to be sacked, and ruling the Pies out of the finals race, and it’s only Round Three.

If they are to cause a massive upset here, then they’ll have to clean up their ball use and their goalkicking, two areas where they really struggled in last week’s loss to Richmond. Sportsbet has them at $1.20 to miss the eight.

The Swans on the other hand, looked good last week, despite losing the Grand Final rematch to the Dogs. Lance Franklin and Sam Reid kicked 10 goals between them last week and pulled down 16 marks.

The last time these clubs met at this venue – the SCG – the hosts ran out 80 point winners. It will be closer than that in this one but I’m going to take the Swans to win by 1-39 points at $2.10.

Suggested Bet: Sydney to win by under 40 points: $2.10

Geelong v Melbourne, Saturday April 8, 4:35pm, Etihad Stadium

The undefeated Geelong and Melbourne sides meet for the very first time at Etihad Stadium on Saturday, both clubs played poorly last week, but still got the all-important four points.

The Cats are currently at $1.40 with Sportsbet, with the Demons at $3 to win just their third game at Etihad in 25 starts.

The Demons were scrappy in their 22-point win over Carlton on Sunday and will head into this one without both Jesse Hogan and Jordan Lewis, who were suspended for throwing left-hand crosses in the win over the Blues.

The Cats weren’t at their best last week either but still managed to stay unbeaten in a thrilling win over the Kangaroos. The class of Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield rose to the top when the club went 32 points down late in the third term.

I’m taking the $2.25 about Geelong to win by 1-39 points. The loss of Lewis and Hogan will hurt the Dees and the close win against the Kangas will prove to be a wake-up call for the experienced Cats’ side.

Suggested Bet: Geelong to win by under 40 points: $2.25

Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Saturday April 8, 7:40pm, Adelaide Oval

The 42nd Showdown has had a bigger build-up than many of the previous 41, as the two South Australian sides are currently occupying the top two spots on the ladder.

­­­­Adelaide’s first two wins over quality opposition in GWS and Hawthorn will see them start as favourites. They are currently at $1.49 with Sportsbet.

Port’s start has been more of a surprise with many wanting to see them a few more times before making a judgement on where they’ll finish up this season. A third win from as many games this season for the Power is priced at $2.65.

Adelaide coach Don Pyke would have been impressed by the team’s resolve last week, after they went down by four goals early against the Hawks. Eddie Betts was once again brilliant last week, booting three, including a trademark banana from the third row. He kicked five goals in this fixture last time.

If the Power are to cause an upset, they’ll need Robbie Gray to continue where he left off on Sunday, when he kicked six majors. Charlie Dixon was also good, pulling down several big marks.

Adelaide have won the past three Showdowns, to get to within one win of Port on the overall ledger. I’m backing them to even it up at 21 wins apiece here.

Suggested Bet: Adelaide to win by under 40 points: $2.25

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all the below for $10.63 at Sportsbet

Sydney to win by under 40: $2.10

Geelong to win by under 40: $2.25

Adelaide to win by under 40: $2.25

AFL Round 3 odds:

Sydney $1.30 (-21.5) v Collingwood $3.55 (+21.5)
North Melbourne $5.25 (+30.5) v Greater Western Sydney $1.16 (-30.5)

Richmond $2.60 (+12.5) v West Coast $1.50 (-12.5)
Geelong $1.40 (-17.5) v Melbourne $3 (+17.5)
Port Adelaide $2.65 (+12.5) v Adelaide $1.49 (-12.5)

Fremantle $4.75 (+31.5) v Western Bulldogs $1.19 (-31.5)

St Kilda $1.17 (-33.5) v Brisbane $5.10 (+33.5)

Carlton $4.60 (+28.5) v Essendon $1.20 (-28.5)
Gold Coast $3.25 (+20.5) v Hawthorn $1.35 (-20.5)

Odds sourced from Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing*


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