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AFL Market Update: Magpies shorten after beating Crows

Mon, Apr 16, 12:11pm by Head Editor

The upset of the 2018 AFL season occurred on Friday night, with Collingwood shocking Adelaide as $5+ underdogs to beat the Crows by 48 points at the Adelaide Oval.

The Pies were clinical in every aspect, as the Crows did not lead at any stage. The result sees the Pies odds of winning the flag drop dramatically from $81 to $51, with the Crows going from $7 to $9 this week.

The Crows who were the shortest-priced team in the competition to make the final 8 at $1.06 last weekend are now $1.16 to do so. The Pies are now $2.25 to feature in the finals.

Hawthorn demolished Melbourne from quarter time onwards and the round four match-of-the-round failed to live up the hype.

The Demons were insipid after the first change, managing only one goal in the three quarters on their way to a 67-point loss.

Melbourne remains $1.85 chance of making the top 8, but their odds have taken a drastic hit, out from $1.53 last week.

The Hawks top 8 chances have moved from $1.85 to $1.65 after their underdog win on the weekend, but their Premiership odds have lengthened to $21.

Essendon put a poor fortnight behind them to record a dominant win against Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon.

The Bombers showed more intent than their opponent and consigned the Power to their first loss of the season.

Port are second favourites to win the flag at $7 and a $1.90 chance of making the top 4. The Bombers moved from $7 to $4 this week to make the top 4, with their price to make the top 8 also shortening from $2.35 into $2.10 this week.

The Western Bulldogs and Sydney played a closely fought match on Saturday afternoon with the Swans prevailing by seven points in a nail-biter.

The win cements the Swans as flag favourites at $6 at Sportsbet, with the Sydneysiders $1.50 to make the top 4 and the shortest priced team to make the top 8 at $1.06.

The loss for the Dogs has stretched their top 8 odds out to $4.25 and they are $51 to win the flag.

Richmond produced another clinical performance on Saturday afternoon, restricting the Brisbane Lions to their lowest ever score of 17 points before winning by 93 points at the MCG.

The Tigers are going to be tough to beat this season and are equal second-favourites to win the flag at $7.

There remains good value with the Tigers to make the top 4 set at $1.90 at Sportsbet. The Lions are the longest price of any team to win the Grand Final at $251.

GWS produced a solid performance in Canberra on their way to a 31-point win against the Dockers.

The Giants now move to 3-1 this season and are a $7 flag chance. The Dockers are now 2-2 on the season and their Premiership odds have drifted from $34 to $51 after the loss.

North Melbourne crushed Carlton on Saturday night at a windy Blundstone Arena in Hobart, dispatching the Blues by 86 points.

The Kangaroos have been better than expected through the first month of the season, but remain flag longshots at $101.

North’s top 8 chances have been boosted by their weekend victory, with their price moving from $9 to $5.

Carlton now lead the Least Wins market at Sportsbet at $1.80 ahead of Brisbane at $3.50 after they have started the season 0-4 and looked toothless at both ends of the field.

West Coast won their third match in a row with a dominant 80-point win against Gold Coast.

The Eagles continue to be under rated by the market, with their Premiership odds narrowing from $34 to $26 this week.

They are still a value price of $1.75 to make the final eight and will be tough to beat in Perth this season.

The Suns good start to the season has been soured in the past fortnight with back-to-back losses in Perth, although many expected those results.

Gold Coast are now a big $11 to make the final 8, out from $6 last weekend.

Geelong heaped further misery onto St Kilda with a 47-point win in wet conditions in Geelong on Sunday night.

The Cats controlled the match from the onset, with the Saints now losing three matches in a row by 40+ margins.

Geelong is $10 to win the flag and a short $1.35 to make the top 8. They are value at $2.75 to finish in the top 4 in what looks to be a very open season.

The Saints are friendless in betting at the moment and a huge $251 to win the flag. Touted as a finals team this season by many, the Saints are now an enormous $21 to play finals.


Sportsbet Markets Premiership Top 4 Top 8
Sydney $6 $1.50 $1.06
Port Adelaide $7 $1.90 $1.16
Richmond $7 $1.90 $1.16
GWS $7 $1.75 $1.12
Adelaide $9 $1.75 $1.16
Geelong $10 $2.75 $1.35
Melbourne $18 $4.50 $1.85
Hawthorn $21 $3.25 $1.65
West Coast $26 $3.50 $1.75
Essendon $31 $4 $2.10
Collingwood $51 $6 $2.25
Western Bulldogs $51 $15 $4.25
Fremantle $51 $14 $3.50
North Melbourne $101 $21 $5
Carlton $251 $301 $41
St Kilda $251 $101 $21
Gold Coast $251 $67 $11
Brisbane $251 $301 $26


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