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AFL Market Update: Port into $7

Tue, Apr 3, 1:31pm by Staff Writer

An unbeaten start to the season has pushed Port Adelaide into equal second favourites to win the flag in 2018 at $7.

The Power dominated Fremantle in round one and then shocked Sydney at the SCG on Sunday night to record a 2-0 start.

The Swans ($6) remain favourites to win the flag at $6, with their cross-town rivals the GWS Giants into $7 from $8.50 last week.

The Giants are the shortest priced team in the competition to make the top 4 at $1.44 after two rounds. They are also favourites to end the regular season at the top of the ladder at $3.50.

Adelaide went some way towards avenging their 2017 Grand Final loss with a pulsating win against Richmond on Thursday night.

The Crows are $7 to win this Premiership this season and $1.80 to make the top 4. They don’t appear as though they have fully clicked into gear in season 2018, but a favourable draw over the next month should see their top 4 odds drop dramatically.

Richmond won’t be concerned after their 1-1 start and face a stern test this weekend when they take on the undefeated Hawks.

After that the Tigers have Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood and Fremantle, four matches they should win comfortably.

At $2 to make the top 4, the Tigers represent good value at the moment, particularly if they beat Hawthorn this week. They are $8 to win the flag.

Geelong’s superstar midfield was not enough to get them over the line against Hawthorn as they fell by a point at the MCG in one of the games of the season.

Geelong’s defence and ruck stocks were challenging during the match and faltered on numerous occasions. Hawthorn were able to extract the ball from centre bounces with ease and Geelong defenders were always on the back foot.

The Cats remain $8 to win the flag, but their loss against Hawthorn raises questions about how far into the finals they can go with such an inexperienced defensive unit.

Hawthorn looked in vintage form on Monday afternoon and held off Geelong’s challenge to start 2-0 this season.

The Hawks are $3.50 to make the top 4, but their value lies in the $1.60 price of making the top 8. Hawthorn look reborn with Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara leading their midfield. Despite the short price, the Hawks look a sure thing for the top 8 this season.

Melbourne held off a late Brisbane fight back to record a 26-point win on Saturday night. The Demons are $12 to win the flag and after two performances represent no value in that market.

A disappointing loss in Perth to the Dockers has done nothing to change Essendon’s outright price of $18 to win the competition.

The Bombers are an unlikely top 4 hopeful at $4.50, but the $1.90 odds of a top 8 finish is value at the moment.

West Coast crushed the Western Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon and their Premiership odds have fallen sharply from $51 to $34.

A top 8 finish for the Eagles is priced at $2.25 and with a decisive home ground advantage at Optus Stadium, that price could prove to be too long in a few weeks time.

The Dogs have received 50+ point losses in back-to-back weeks and are as unlikely a team as any to play finals despite their $7 odds of finishing in the top 8.

Fremantle after a single win have seen their outright price slashed from $67 to $34 and offer no value in the Premiership market after a market over-reaction to a win against a poor travelling team in Essendon.

St Kilda have been the one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far after a scrappy win against Brisbane and a pathetic performance against North Melbourne.

The Saints are now out to $7 to make the top 8 after a season that promised finals. They face Adelaide this Saturday night in a season defining match.

Collingwood were gallant in their loss to the Giants on Saturday afternoon but just lacked a touch of class late in the contest.

The Pies are $81 to win the flag and after an 0-2 start are $5 to make the top 8. Collingwood have a must-win game this weekend when they face another 0-2 team in Carlton.

The Blues are $151 to win the flag and are $3.75 to earn the least wins in 2018. After a one-sided loss to the Gold Coast Suns, Blues fans have right to panic, as the team looks set to struggle through season 2018.

Gold Coast has seen positive movement in their flag odds moving from $151 to $101, with the Suns a $4 chance to play finals after a 2-0 start.

The concern for the Suns is their travel-heavy schedule during the first nine rounds which includes two matches in Perth, a match in China and Adelaide.

The Brisbane Lions are favourites for the wooden spoon in the Least Wins market at $3.25.

AFL Premiership Odds – Sportsbet

Sydney $6

Port Adelaide $7

GWS $7

Adelaide $7

Richmond $8

Geelong $8

Melbourne $12

Essendon $18

Hawthorn $23

West Coast $34

Fremantle $34

St Kilda $67

Collingwood $81

Western Bulldogs $101

North Melbourne $101

Gold Coast $101

Carlton $151

Brisbane $251

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