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AFL Market Update: Swans suffer third home loss

Mon, May 7, 11:46am by Staff Writer

Round 7 of the 2018 AFL season produced a trio of close games, headlined by Collingwood’s last gasp win against the Brisbane Lions.

The Pies have played tremendously during the past month, but a trip to the Gabba to face the winless Lions was always going to pose a challenge.

Both sides kicked accurately for the entire game and with the scores level late, a Jaidyn Stephenson goal ensured the Pies victory.

Collingwood are $18 to win the flag and sit in ninth position on the ladder. The Lions are no chance for the flag at $1001, but are second favourites in the least wins market at $3.

Collingwood’s top eight credentials have been boosted with the win, now priced at a short $1.45 to play finals.

Sydney suffered their third loss at the SCG this season, going down to North Melbourne by two points.

It was a courageous win for the visitors, their best in some time, as they held on for victory in a low scoring encounter.

The win moves North into the top eight, but they are still big outsiders for the flag at $67.

The Kangaroos are also not fancied to make finals, priced at $3.50 to make the eight.

The Swans play this season has been erratic and they are now third favourites to win the flag at $7.

With a number of recent losses at home, Sydney’s price to make the top four has steadily lengthened, from $1.70 last week to $2.50 this week at Sportsbet.

Richmond continue to dazzle and remain the benchmark in the AFL after another dominant performance, particularly in the last quarter, where they dominated the Dockers kicking eight goals to nil on their way to a 77-point win.

The Tigers are firm $4 favourites to win back-to-back flags after a 37-year drought.

They are priced at a short $1.25 to make the top four and a near certainty at $1.01 to play finals

The Dockers battled admirably, particularly in the third quarter where they restricted the Tigers to no goals, but were consistently outplayed. They are $81 to win the flag and $7 to play finals.

St Kilda’s season continues to be a disappointment after a 39-point loss to Melbourne on Sunday afternoon.

The Saints were never in the match as they trailed at every change, with poor disposal and horrible goal-kicking a major cause of their woes.

They are $501 to win the flag and not rated as a finals contender at $101.

After a poor start to the season, the Demons have registered consecutive wins and are now $21 to win the flag at Sportsbet. They are $2 to make the final eight, with wins against Essendon and St Kilda not yet convincing punters they are the real deal.

Port Adelaide suffered a 42-point loss to West Coast on Saturday afternoon in a one-sided affair.

The Eagles dominated after quarter time and have now won six of their first seven games to sit second on the ladder.

West Coast have been the most surprising team of the season and their odds of winning the flag have shortened weekly. They are now $14 to win the Premiership after being $16 last week.

The Eagles are $1.90 to make the top four and $1.12 to play finals.

It was a disappointing loss for Port, who played so well against the Roos a week ago. It’s a third loss in four games for them, but they remain fancied to play finals at $1.53.

Geelong were relentless on Friday night when they hosted GWS, crushing the visitors by 61 points.

The Cats were dominant for the entire game, as the Giants managed a woeful 32 points and struggled to score.

The win moves Geelong into fourth favourites for the flag at $8, while the Giants who were Premiership favourites at the beginning of the season have slipped from $7 to $10 this week at Sportsbet.

The Giants are now a massive $4 to make the top four, after being near certainties earlier in the season.

The Western Bulldogs struggled to a nine-point win against Gold Coast in Ballarat on Saturday afternoon, with the Dogs trailing until early in the final quarter.

A strong breeze was a factor in the match, but Gold Coast played well despite missing Tom Lynch and Sam May.

Both sides are not fancied to feature in finals, with the Dogs $10 to make the top eight and the Suns $34.

Adelaide remain second favourites to win the flag at $6.50 after a 55-point win against the winless Blues.

It was a regulation victory for the Crows who were never seriously troubled by the visitors.

Adelaide are $1.60 to finish in the top four and a short $1.06 to play finals.

The Blues continue to rack up the losses and are $1.50 to finish the season with the wooden spoon.

Essendon’s poor season continued on Saturday afternoon with a 23-point loss to Hawthorn. Despite leading at half-time in a dour contest, the Bombers conceded six goals to nil in the third quarter as the Hawks dominated.

Essendon are now $11 to make the top eight and $101 to win the flag, out from $34 last week.

The Hawks continue to be an outsider for the top four at $2.75 and offer good value. They are $14 to win the flag.

Sportsbet Markets Premiership Top 4 Top 8
Richmond $4 $1.25 $1.01
Adelaide $6.50 $1.60 $1.06
Sydney $7 $2.50 $1.20
Geelong $8 $2.25 $1.13
GWS $10 $4 $1.36
Port Adelaide $12 $4 $1.53
West Coast $14 $1.90 $1.12
Hawthorn $14 $2.75 $1.30
Collingwood $18 $3.25 $1.57
Melbourne $21 $6 $2
North Melbourne $67 $12 $3.50
Fremantle $81 $34 $7
Essendon $101 $51 $11
Western Bulldogs $126 $51 $10
Gold Coast $501 $251 $34
St Kilda $501 $251 $101
Carlton $1001 $401 $251
Brisbane $1001 $401 $251

 


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