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AFL Market Update: Swans win Sydney derby

Mon, Apr 9, 1:28pm by Staff Writer

The Sydney Swans secured local bragging rights after a win against rival the GWS Giants in a battle of the early season Premiership favourites on Saturday night.

The Swans were too good in the crucial moment and recorded a hard-fought 16-point win.

Sydney remains Premiership favourites at $6 with the Giants equal third favourites at $7.

Both teams are well backed to make the top four, with the Swans at $1.53 at Sportsbet and the Giants $1.85, with both sides starting the season 2-1.

Making the final eight is seen as a near certainty for both sides, with the Swans priced at $1.08 and the Giants $1.20 respectively.

Port Adelaide survived a scare against the unfancied Brisbane Lions on Saturday afternoon to record a tough five-point win at the Adelaide Oval.

The Power are 3-0 and are the only remaining undefeated team in the competition. Port are equal second favourites to win the flag at $7 and after their exceptional start  to the season, $1.60 chances to finish in the top four and a short $1.10 to make the finals.

Adelaide used a dominant patch in the third quarter to blow their game against St Kilda wide open and beat the Saints by 49 points.

Adelaide are still fancied by punters to feature at the pointy end of the season as they are $7 to win the competition and the shortest price of any team to make the top four at $1.45.

St Kilda’s miserable start to the season continues as they have won only one game and are $151 long shots to win the competition. Their top eight hopes are fading by the week as they are now a huge $11 to make the eight.

Despite losing the clearance count against the Hawks, Richmond recorded a solid win against the Hawks on Sunday afternoon.

There was no doubt that fatigue played a part in the result for the Hawks who were backing up after a six-day break, while the Tigers enjoyed a ten-day interval between games.

The Tigers are $8 to win back-to-back flags, with the Hawks shortening from $23 last week to $18 this week after their 13-point loss.

Geelong came out of the blocks slowly against West Coast on Sunday afternoon and never recovered as they lost by 15 points to the Eagles.

The Cats have now lost back-to-back games and have gone out from $8 to $9 to win the flag this season.

The Cats are a huge $3.50 to make the top four, despite not yet playing a match at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong this season.

Despite that big price, the Cats are only $1.50 to make the top eight.

The Eagles are a team that will be contending for a position in the lower part of the top eight with their odds reflecting that. A 2-1 start to the season has the Eagles $1.85 chances to make the top eight, $4 to finish in the top four and a steady $34 to win the flag.

Melbourne conceded the first four goals of their match against North Melbourne before rallying for a comfortable 37-point win.

The Demons have won two consecutive games against the competitions lesser teams and are $12 to win the flag, still a bit too short for our liking.

Melbourne are $1.53 to make the top eight and considering they haven’t proved themselves to any of the competition heavyweights yet this season, that price is awfully short.

An unlikely Demons top four finish is paying $3.25, again far too short.

The Kangaroos are unlikely to feature in September and are $101 to win the flag and $9 to make the top eight.

The biggest disappointment of round three was the performance of Essendon who were soundly beaten by the Western Bulldogs.

34 scoring shorts to 23 only told half the story in that match, as the Dogs started the game with one goal and eight behinds.

Essendon are now out from $18 to $26 to win the flag and $2.35 to make the top eight. With two consecutive losses, a top four finish is already fading for the Bombers who are $7 to finish in the top four.

It was a much-needed win for the Bulldogs but it did little to convince punters as they remain $101 to win the flag.

Fremantle used a strong run midway through the third quarter to bust their game open against Gold Coast and win an ‘away’ game in Perth by 28 points.

The Dockers are $34 to win the flag, while the Suns are $101 longshots.

In a dour Friday night contest, old rivals Collingwood and Carlton showed many why they won’t be contending late in September.

Carlton kicked the first three goals of the match and then let in the next nine as they fell by 24 points.

The Pies are $81 flag shots while the Blues are a huge $251.


Sportsbet Markets Premiership Top 4 Top 8
Sydney $6 $1.52 $1.08
Port Adelaide $7 $1.60 $1.10
GWS Giants $7 $1.85 $1.20
Adelaide $7 $1.45 $1.06
Richmond $8 $2.25 $1.25
Geelong $9 $3.50 $1.50
Melbourne $12 $3.25 $1.53
Hawthorn $18 $4.50 $1.85
Essendon $26 $7 $2.35
West Coast $34 $4 $1.85
Fremantle $34 $10 $2.75
Collingwood $81 $10 $3
Western Bulldogs $101 $14 $4
North Melbourne $101 $41 $9
Gold Coast $101 $41 $6
St Kilda $151 $67 $11
Carlton $251 $201 $26
Brisbane $251 $201 $18


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