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AFL Market Update: Tigers and Eagles move clear

Mon, May 14, 11:36am by Staff Writer

Round 8 of the 2018 AFL season featured a number of low-scoring matches, with Richmond and West Coast extending their advantage at the top of the ladder to two games ahead six teams all on 20 points.

The Tigers continue to shorten as Premiership favourites in from $4 to $3.75 this week after their narrow 10 point win against North Melbourne on Sunday afternoon.

Richmond are continuing to play a high-pressure style of football and are $1.20 to make the top four after breaking their Premiership drought last season.

North Melbourne fought admirably and even led by two points early in the last quarter, but the Tigers were too good in the end and deserved victory. North remains $67 to win the flag but have seen support to make the top 8, in from $3.50 to $3 this week.

West Coast produced a shock win against a poor GWS Giants side on Saturday afternoon. Despite being without a number of key players including Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey and Jeremy McGovern, the Eagles’ Jack Darling booted four goals to steer his side to a 25-point win.

The Eagles’ Premiership odds have shortened massively after that win, in from $14 to $10 at Sportsbet ahead of their top-of-the-table clash against Richmond in round 9.

The Giants have been unimpressive so far this season and the pre-season Premiership fancy continues to drift in the outright market, out from $10 to $15 this week. They are also a huge $3.50 to make the top four and a $1.90 shot at making the top eight.

Sydney produced one of their trademark comebacks on Friday night, rallying to defeat Hawthorn by eight points at the MCG. Third-gamer Luke Ronke booted a staggering seven goals for the Swans who are now second favourites to win the flag at $7.

The Swans are undefeated on the road and a generous $2.10 to finish in the top four, while the Hawks are $3.50 for a top four berth come seasons end and $16 to win the flag.

In one of the best Showdown’s we have ever seen, Port Adelaide staged an enormous comeback in the third quarter thanks to five goals from Robbie Gray and a Steven Motlop goal with just seconds remaining to beat the Crows by five points.

Adelaide is now $8 to win the flag, while Port are close behind at $10. Both sides are vying for a top four berth, with the Crows now $2.75 and Port $3 to finish in the top four.

Carlton remains winless no longer after a 13-point win against the hapless Bombers on Saturday afternoon. Essendon were poor once again and have lost four games in a row. They are $251 to win the flag and are looking like a bottom-four certainty at the moment.

Despite their win, Carlton remains favourites to win the least number of games this season at $2.25 ahead of Brisbane at $2.50.

The Lions again produced a good performance in defeat against the Western Bulldogs, going down by 14 points on Saturday night.

The Dogs are now 4-4 on the season but still are not seen as Premiership threats at $101 in the outright market and $11 to play finals.

Geelong restricted Collingwood to a single first half goal on their way to a hard-fought 21-point win on Sunday afternoon.

The Cats remain one of the competition favourites and are equal second favourites for the flag at $7. Without Scott Pendlebury, the Pies struggled after their big win against the Lions last weekend. They are now $21 to win the flag, but are $1.75 to play finals.

Melbourne continued their good recent run of form, thumping the Suns by 69 points at the Gabba.

The Demons are $18 to win the flag and $1.60 to play finals, with an unlikely top four berth now paying $4.25 at Sportsbet.

The Suns have had a tremendously tough start to the season, travelling far and wide while their home ground is unavailable. They are $501 to win the flag and $12 in the least wins market behind Carlton, Brisbane and St Kilda.

The Saints produced a disappointing first half against the Dockers before staging a third quarter comeback that ultimately fell short on Saturday night.

Fremantle were the more consistent side and ran out five goal winners, with the Dockers $81 to win the flag and $4.50 to make the top four, after a week of off-field controversy.

The Saints are unlikely to play finals and are $151 just to make the top eight.

Sportsbet Markets Premiership Top 4 Top 8
Richmond $3.75 $1.18 $1.01
Sydney $7 $2 $1.15
Geelong $7 $1.75 $1.09
Adelaide $8 $2.75 $1.08
Port Adelaide $10 $3 $1.33
West Coast $10 $1.57 $1.06
GWS $15 $6 $1.90
Hawthorn $16 $3.25 $1.42
Melbourne $18 $4.25 $1.60
Collingwood $21 $4.50 $1.75
North Melbourne $67 $12 $3
Fremantle $81 $21 $4.50
Western Bulldogs $101 $101 $11
Essendon $251 $251 $26
Gold Coast $501 $1001 $101
St Kilda $501 $1001 $151
Carlton $1001 $1001 $151
Brisbane $1001 $1001 $251

 


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