Wed, Sep 19, 11:59am by Staff Writer
Two of the AFL’s biggest clubs meet on Friday night for a place in the 2018 AFL Grand Final when Richmond takes on Collingwood at the MCG.
Richmond is $1.37 to win the match, with the Pies $3.10 outsiders.
The Tigers have been Premiership favourites for much of the season, finishing the home and away season on top of the ladder, two games clear of the second placed West Coast Eagles.
A fortnight ago Richmond dispatched of Hawthorn by 31 points in a match that was one-sided after half-time, in the Tigers’ favour.
Collingwood battled admirably against West Coast in a qualifying final, but succumbed by 16 points.
They were the better side for large parts of their 10-point semi-final win against the Greater Sydney Giants last weekend, with the final margin flattering the visitors.
These clubs met twice during the home and away season and it was the Tigers who were winners on both occasions.
In round six at the MCG, Richmond trailed at the main break, before a 12 goal to five second half, including eight final quarter goals to the Tigers decided the result.
Josh Caddy kicked four goals for Richmond, with Nick Riewoldt and Dan Butler kicking three each.
It was Adam Treloar who was the leading disposal winner on the ground, as the Pies had three players who amassed 30 or more touches.
The round 19 fixture between the two clubs was a top of the table match, as Collingwood had moved into second spot on the ladder.
Richmond took a 19-point lead into quarter time, but as the match went on their lead eroded and they were up by only four points at the final change.
Once again it was Richmond’s final quarter supremacy that was the difference, as the Tigers kicked five goals to one to win by 28 points.
Riewoldt and Dustin Martin each had three goals for the winners, while Josh Thomas kicked four goals for Collingwood. Forward Jordan De Goey didn’t play in that game due to injury.
Richmond has won the past six finals it has played against Collingwood and holds a 9-7 edge all-time.
Richmond is a 16.5-point favourite in the handicap market at $1.92, while the total match points are set at over/under 160.5 at $1.90.
The Tigers rank second and Pies third in the competition for goals scored per game, so there could be some merit in taking the over 160.5.
In margin betting, Richmond to win by 1-39 points is the shortest priced option at $2.10, with the Pies to win by 1-39 the next best at $3.50.
Richmond has the advantage of a week off and experience at this stage of the season after saluting last season in a preliminary final.
This match will be a total different atmosphere to last season’s romp against the Giants and 2017 Brownlow Medalist Dustin Martin is under an injury cloud after being spotted training alone recently.
If Collingwood don’t allow Richmond to set up behind the ball too often and can implement their running game off half back, they are a good chance, but Richmond should sneak over the line in a nail biter.
Best bet- Richmond Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $2.10
AFL Preliminary Final Odds
Richmond $1.37 v Collingwood $3.10
Handicap: Richmond -16.5 ($1.92)
Margin: Richmond 1-39 $2.10, 40+ $3.75
Collingwood 1-39 $3.50, 40+ $20
Total match points: over/under 160.5 ($1.90)
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