Fri, Jun 1, 1:46pm by Staff Writer
Round 11 of the 2018 AFL season continues on Sunday with three games featuring top eight teams against clubs in the bottom ten desperate for a win.
North Melbourne versus Brisbane
Sunday, 3 June 2018 at 1.10pm AEST at Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne have been a revelation this season with their 6-4 record defying the predictions of many pundits who predicted them to occupy the bottom rungs of the ladder.
They host the Lions on Sunday afternoon as $1.24 favourites at Etihad Stadium, with Brisbane $4.10 outsiders at Sportsbet.
Since the Lions lost to the Tigers by 93 points and scoring only 17 themselves in round 4, they have been more than competitive, losing by three goals or under on four occasions and beating Hawthorn by 56 points.
The Kangaroos kicked the last four goals against Fremantle to win a game that was in the balance at three-quarter-time.
North have won four of their past five matches against the Lions, with three of those coming on the road at the Gabba. This is the first Kangaroos home game against Brisbane since 2015, where they won by more than 13 goals.
The Roos are 27.5-point favourites, but given how competitive Brisbane have been in recent times and the fact that they don’t dislike playing under the roof at Etihad Stadium, we are forecasting a much closer match.
Brisbane can match North in terms of tall forwards and defenders, with their midfields separated only by the experience that North has over their Brisbane opponents.
The ruck dual will be an enthralling one, with one of the game’s best ruckmen in Stefan Martin taking on the ageing, yet effective Todd Goldstein.
We are leaning towards North in a close game, as they have all the momentum and form coming into this match.
Best bet- North Melbourne Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $2.10
Collingwood versus Fremantle
Sunday, 3 June 2018 at 3.20pm AEST at the MCG
Collingwood will be hoping to maintain their spot in the top eight with a win against the 13th placed Dockers on Sunday afternoon at the MCG.
The Pies are red-hot favourites at $1.21, with the Dockers outsiders at $4.45.
Fremantle’s four wins this season have all come at Optus Stadium, with the typically road-poor Dockers failing to inspire on their travels this season.
An 8-13 all-time record at the MCG is hardly inspiring for Dockers fans, although they have beaten Collingwood twice at the ‘G in 2005 and 2006.
Collingwood booted eight unanswered goals in the second half last weekend to stave off a challenge from the Western Bulldogs, as they fell down five goals to one at quarter time.
The Pies midfield is playing superbly this season, with Nathan Buckley’s charges the most impressive they have been for some time, executing an exciting gameplan.
Fremantle have tried to play more attacking football this season, with mixed results. While they enjoy the wide spaces afforded to them at Optus Stadium, they have struggled at every other venue, losing by 5+ goals on each occasion.
Collingwood is being given a 5-goal start at Sportsbet and should easily account for this Dockers team.
Best bet- Collingwood Big Win Little Win 40+ at $2.30
Adelaide versus GWS
Sunday, 3 June 2018 at 4.40pm AEST at Adelaide Oval
Adelaide and GWS are both coming off last start defeats, with the Crows thumped by the resurgent Dees, while the Giants produced a limp final quarter in losing to the Bombers.
This isn’t a must-win for the Giants if they want to play finals, as they sit 11th on the ladder with a 4-5 mark, but if they hope to finish in the top four, they need to defeat the Crows on Sunday.
Adelaide are $1.32 favourites, while the Giants are $3.40 underdogs.
The Crows were soundly beaten by Melbourne across the park in Alice Springs last Sunday, with the Demons booting the games first five goals and never looking troubled.
The Giants were close enough to challenge the Bombers in the last quarter, before losing by 35 points in another disappointing results for Leon Cameron’s charges.
The Giants have never won at the Adelaide Oval, despite being in sublime form during the 2016 and 2017 seasons. It is a tough venue for travelling sides to take four points from, and given their dreadful recent form, it is impossible to pick the Giants in this one.
Best bet- Adelaide to cover 22.5-point handicap at $1.92
Sportsbet AFL Round 11 Sunday Odds
North Melbourne $1.24 v Brisbane $4.10
Collingwood $1.21 v Fremantle $4.45
Adelaide $1.32 v GWS $3.40
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