Wed, Jun 6, 2:20pm by Staff Writer
Round 12 of the 2018 AFL season includes the annual Queens Birthday match between Melbourne and Collingwood on Monday afternoon. It is also the first of three weeks which teams are on a mid-season bye, with Carlton, Hawthorn, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs all having the weekend off.
Port Adelaide versus Richmond
Friday, 8 June 2018 at 7.50pm AEST at the Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide welcome Richmond to the Adelaide Oval after a narrow loss to the Hawks in Launceston last weekend.
The Power will be home underdogs at $2.12 at Sportsbet, with the Tigers $1.72 favourites.
Despite booting five of the first six goals in the match, the Power ran out of steam, as Hawthorn slowly caught up and led at the final siren.
That match sums up Port’s season, where they are struggling for consistency. They win one or two games on the trot and then lose a match against an out of form club such as the Hawks.
Port’s top four hoping are hanging by a thread and they host one of the hottest teams in the competition, the Tigers.
Richmond thumped Essendon by 71 points in last weekend’s Dreamtime at the ‘G game, but will find much stiffer resistance this weekend when they face Port.
These clubs have traditionally played low scoring matches in recent times, with neither side scoring 100 points in their past four games.
Richmond hold no fears at the Adelaide Oval, and despite losing against the Crows there earlier this season, have beaten Port in two of their last three matches at the venue.
Port will be looking for a massive lift from their goal scoring small forwards Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard, with the latter kicking only 11 goals in nine appearance this season.
A lot of rain is forecasted for Adelaide on Friday night, with the total points set at a very low 143.5 at $1.90. In that market, the under is most certainly the bet, but we see more value in backing the Tigers to win in a low scoring contest.
Best bet- Richmond Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $2.10
Geelong versus North Melbourne
Saturday, 9 June 2018 at 1.45pm AEST at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Before a ball was bounced this season, many touted North as bottom four contenders. After 11 rounds, they are pushing towards a top four berth and look finals certainties.
They will be tested this week at the most difficult ground for away teams to snare a win, Geelong’s GMHBA Stadium.
The Cats will enter the match as $1.45 favourites, with the Kangaroos $2.78 outsiders.
Geelong breezed past Gold Coast, thumping them by 85 points last weekend, while North had a similarly dominant result against the Lions, winning by nine goals.
These two sides last met in 2017, when the Cats snuck home by a point in round two.
They have not met in Geelong since 2015, when the Roos upset the Cats by 16 points at their fortress.
Geelong has lost at GMHBA Stadium once this season to Sydney, while Carlton pushed them in a close result a fortnight ago.
This will be a match of contrasting styles, with the Roos swift ball movement to be countered by Geelong’s careful, considered approach.
Very little splits these two sides, besides a few recognised superstars on the Cats team and their home ground advantage.
The Cats got a big win against a poor Suns team last weekend, but have been uninspiring this season, particularly as favourites.
North have surprised us all season and we are backing them in to get the upset of round 12.
Take them at the handicap or in the margin market for some extra value.
Best bet- North Melbourne Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $3.20
GWS versus Gold Coast
Saturday, 9 June 2018 at 4.35pm AEST at Spotless Stadium
The Giants got their biggest win of the season last Sunday in a surprise 16 point win against the Crows at the Adelaide Oval.
It was their first win against the Crows at that venue, and they will be looking to parlay that form into another win, this time against the lowly Suns in Sydney.
The Giants are massive favourites at $1.06, with the Suns $9.30 outsiders.
Gold Coast have been disappointing since the first few rounds of the season, struggling to gel, without a home ground until last weekend and with question marks surrounding whether or not captain Tom Lynch will re-sign with the club.
On current form, the Suns will be without Lynch in 2019 and beyond as the team are playing dreadfully at present.
The Giants finally clicked into gear last weekend and should account for this poor Suns side by more than 10 goals.
Best bet- GWS 60+ winning margin at $2.75
AFL Round 12 Sportsbet Odds
Port Adelaide $2.12 v Richmond $1.72
Geelong $1.45 v North Melbourne $2.78
GWS $1.06 v Gold Coast $9.30
St Kilda $4.45 v Sydney $1.21
Brisbane $2.25 v Essendon $1.65
Fremantle $2.96 v Adelaide $1.40
Melbourne $1.57 v Collingwood $2.41
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