Fri, Aug 10, 5:17pm by Staff Writer
Round 21 of the 2018 AFL season concludes on Sunday, with the Melbourne’s match against Sydney at the MCG a crucial fixture that will shape the top eight.
North Melbourne versus Western Bulldogs
Sunday, 12 August 2018 at 1.10pm AEST at Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne is fighting for a finals berth when they host the Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Roos are $1.30 favourites to topple the Dogs, who are paying $3.55 at Sportsbet.
It was the Dogs who grabbed a surprise underdog win last week, thanks in large part to an eight-goal to none third quarter against St Kilda. The 35-point win was their first since round 15.
North is one game outside the top eight in 10th position and snuck over the line against Brisbane at the Gabba.
Their three-point win was aided by number one draft pick Cam Rayner missing a shot at goal with under a minute remaining which would have put the Lions in the lead.
North Melbourne pulled off a stunning win against the Dogs in round 14 this year.
Captain Jack Ziebell scored a goal with 30 seconds remaining to record a two-point win for his side.
The past six games between these two sides have been decided by under four goals, with their past three matches having a combined margin of six points.
The Kangaroos are a very short price in the head-to-head market and their starting handicap of 22.5-points is on the high side, given they have conceded 100+ points in three of their past four matches.
A wager on them in the margin market offer move value and takes into account a late flurry of goals.
Best bet- North Melbourne Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $2.20
Melbourne versus Sydney
Sunday, 12 August 2018 at 3.20pm AEST at the MCG
Sydney kept their season alive last weekend with a gritty comeback win against Collingwood at the SCG.
The Swans have a tough run home with the Giants and Hawks to follow this weekend’s match against Melbourne.
The Dees are short-priced favourites at $1.37 at Sportsbet, with the Swans $3.10 outsiders.
Melbourne are currently in the top four, but know that they are tied with four other sides, including the Swans on points and only separated thanks to their superior percentage.
Sydney have a strong record against Melbourne in recent years, winning their past six games against the Dees.
Their winning record at the MCG during the past decade is their worst of any AFL ground, at just about 40 per cent since 2009.
All signs point to this being a close match, with both sides having a lot to play for. With Sydney’s recent record against the Dees contrasted against Melbourne’s better season to date, we are set for a great match.
Taking the Tri-Bet of either team to win by under 15.5 points is a great play at $3, as is the Swans at the +20.5 handicap at $1.90 for punters who fancy the Swans.
Best bet- Tri-Bet either team to win by under 15.5 points at $3
Fremantle versus Carlton
Sunday, 12 August 2018 at 4.40pm AEST at Optus Stadium
The Dockers were in the headlines for all the wrong reasons in the past week, after rookie Andrew Brayshaw was hit off the ball by West Coast’s Andrew Gaff in their 59-point loss in the Derby last weekend.
Fremantle will be looking to score another home victory, which would be their seventh of the season when they host Carlton on Sunday.
The Blues are $4.20 outsiders are being trounced by 105 points against the Giants last weekend.
Fremantle are $1.23 favourites and favoured by 27.5 points at the line.
After a win against the Gold Coast a fortnight ago, the Blues have once again regressed.
At one point in their match against the Giants, they were up against 16 players as GWS battled injuries.
Carlton’s defensive intensity was non-existent and a trip to Perth for this young squad this late in the season will be a tremendous challenge.
It will be either first game at Optus Stadium, after amassing a 6-8 record at Domain Stadium during the past decade.
Perth has been far from Carlton’s worst interstate travel destination, but the 2018 Blues will lose this match by at least seven goals.
Best bet- Fremantle to cover 27.5-point handicap at $1.90
AFL Round 21 Sunday Odds – Sportsbet
North Melbourne $1.30 v Western Bulldogs $3.55
Melbourne $1.37 v Sydney $3.10
Fremantle $1.23 v Carlton $4.20
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