Wed, Apr 18, 8:25am by Staff Writer
Round 5 of the 2018 AFL season begins with top four contenders Sydney hosting Adelaide at the SCG on Friday night. Saturday afternoon’s matches feature two teams in desperate need of a win in St Kilda and Carlton. The evening’s matches include Port hosting Geelong and Fremantle hosting the Western Bulldogs.
Sydney versus Adelaide
Friday, 20 April 2018 at 7.50pm AEST at the SCG
Sydney overcame a dogged Western Bulldogs side to come out victorious by seven points at Etihad Stadium last Saturday afternoon.
Round four was not a good one for the Crows however, as they were thumped by Collingwood on Friday night in a rather toothless performance from one of the flag fancies.
Sydney will start this match as $1.43 favourites at home, with the Crows $2.85 outsiders.
The Swans have won six of the past seven matches between the two sides, including a three point win at the Adelaide Oval last season.
Adelaide’s lack of intensity was most concerning in their loss last week, as they never seemed to get going against the Pies.
If they bring that level of play to a game at the SCG, they will lose by plenty.
The Swans haven’t blown any side away this season, which makes a wager on the Big Win Little Win margin market a better play than taking the Swans at the 16.5-point handicap start.
With Sydney 1-39 paying $2.10, the margin market offers a little bit more value, as we can’t see the Crows springing an upset at the SCG on Friday night.
Best bet- Sydney Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $2.10
Carlton versus West Coast
Saturday, 21 April 2018 at 4.35pm AEST at the MCG
Carlton are winless through four games and produced their worst performance in some time when they lost by 86 points to North Melbourne in Hobart on Saturday night.
The Blues are $4.20 underdogs at home when they take on the West Coast Eagles at the MCG. Carlton are the longest price of any team in round five.
The Eagles have produced three consecutive wins and have looked impressive in doing so. An 80 point win against the Suns on Saturday night was preceded by wins against the Dogs and Cats, with the Eagles looking a top four dark horse after four rounds.
West Coast has won the past three matches between these two teams, including a seven point win in 2016 at the MCG.
Three of Carlton’s four losses this season have been by under 34 points, which makes their starting handicap of 27.5-points rather generous against a West Coast team that is notoriously poor on the road.
Last weekend’s loss may have been just what the Blues needed to ignite their season, after showing patches of form within games over the first three rounds.
If you fancy an Eagles win, taking them in the Big Win Little Win 1-39 market at $2.10 is the play, but there is a tad more value in taking the Blues with the points start given that they are at home against a poor travelling team.
Best bet- Carlton to cover 27.5-point handicap at $1.90
Port Adelaide versus Geelong
Saturday, 21 April 2018 at 7.40pm AEST at Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide’s unbeaten start to the season ended on Sunday afternoon as they lost to the Bombers by 22 points.
Port trailed by as many as 40 points on Sunday, with the final margin flattering the visitors, who were off the pace for the entire game.
They are now $1.52 favourites when they host Geelong on Saturday night, with the Cats $2.55 underdogs.
The Cats breezed past St Kilda in Geelong as expected, but will face a much sterner test against the Power.
Geelong has won the past three matches between these two teams, including two at the Adelaide Oval.
There is very little to split these two sides, with Port’s forward line arguably the only point of difference between the teams.
We should expect a close match on Saturday night between two sides who are vying for top four honours by season’s end.
The Tri Bet market of either team under 15.5 points at $2.75 looks the best play in this match, as either side could win and this contest should come down to a few crucial moments late in the match.
Best bet- Tri Bet either team under 15.5 points at $2.75
Elsewhere on Saturday, the Saints will have their work cut out for them when they host the Giants. St Kilda is winless in three matches and are $3.80 underdogs with the Giants looking for their fourth win of the season and will start as $1.27 favourites.
Fremantle are $1.60 favourites in Perth when they host the Dogs who are $2.35 and there is little to split these two sides in what will be a close match.
AFL Round 5 Odds – Sportsbet
Sydney $1.43 v Adelaide $2.85
St Kilda $3.80 v GWS $1.27
Carlton $4.20 v West Coast $1.23
Port Adelaide $1.52 v Geelong $2.55
Fremantle $1.60 v Western Bulldogs $2.35
North Melbourne $2.80 v Hawthorn $1.44
Brisbane $1.78 v Gold Coast $2.05
Melbourne $2.65 v Richmond $1.49
Collingwood $1.81 v Essendon $2
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