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AFL Round 5 Best Bets: Port, Giants and Dogs all appeal

Wed, Apr 19, 4:51pm by Senior Writer

Just like Round Two, Round Four was a good one for punters, with the favourites winning eight of the nine games. The only underdog was Fremantle – who were a $3.18 shot – rolling Melbourne at the MCG.

With Anzac Day on Tuesday, this week’s matches will once again be played over five days, in five different states.

Round Five kicks off on Friday night when Carlton are on the road for the first time this season, facing Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval as big underdogs.

The following day, the Western Bulldogs host Brisbane at Etihad Stadium in another match where the betting market is extremely lopsided in favour of the home side.

The short-priced favourite trend continues in the next match when Gold Coast ($4) host one of the premiership favourites Adelaide ($1.25).

Saturday night sees one of the matches of the round when the 12th Sydney derby is played at the SCG. The Giants will go in as favourites, and if the Swans can’t produce the upset, it will be their worst start to a season since 1993.

Another club who are aiming to avoid a 0-5 start to the season are North Melbourne. The Roos are a $2.60 outsider against a rejuvenated Fremantle ($1.50) at Perth’s Domain Stadium.

WATCH: We pick out the Best Bets for AFL Round 5

On Sunday, Geelong are a $1.43 favourites to continue their perfect start to the season against the Saints ($1.43) before Hawthorn ($3.10) aim for their first win of 2017 against West Coast ($1.38).

Richmond ($1.74) can make it five from five on Monday night against the Dees ($2.10) before the traditional Anzac Day clash between Essendon ($2.10) and Collingwood ($1.74) the following day.

We made a handy 33% return on our six AFL best bets last weekend, backing four winners. Here’s our best bets for Round Five:

Port Adelaide v Carlton, Friday April 21, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval

Carlton will start a huge underdog when they make the trip west to take on Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. The hosts will be hungry for a win after dropping their last two against the two teams who sit at the top of the Premiership betting.

Port have been at $1.13 all week to win their third game of the season while the Blues are friendless at $6.05. The line opened at 35.5 points and has drifted out further to 37.5.

It is easy to see why too. Scoring is not a problem for the hosts, they average 104 points so far this season, and racked up 145 in their last win at home – the Dockers in Round Two.

Carlton on the other hand are averaging just 73 points per game and although they played a more open and free-flowing game last week, this one is well beyond them.

I have picked my own line here of 30.5 points for a Port win against a club who are definitely in the rebuilding stage.

Suggested Bet: Port Adelaide by over 30 points (pick your own line): $1.57

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions, Saturday April 22, 1:45pm, Etihad Stadium

For the second match in a row, we have a short-priced favourite when the reigning premier welcome the club who finished 17th last season to Etihad Stadium on Saturday.

The Dogs haven’t set the world on fire yet this season, highlighted by their loss against Fremantle two weeks ago, and their somewhat lucky win against the Kangaroos last Friday.

The hasn’t worried the bookies though, Sportsbet have installed the sons of the west as a $1.07 shot to win their fourth game of the campaign with the Lions at $8.50. The line opened at 43.5 on Monday, that has come in slightly to 42.5.

Inspirational skipper Bob Murphy, who of course missed out on the success of last season, will run out for his beloved club for the 300th time on Saturday, which is even more reason to back the Dogs.

The visitors have been more competitive than many expected so far this season but they are coming off their biggest loss of the season – 52 points at the hands of Richmond.

Travis Cloke will miss for the Dogs after suffering a big hit to the ribs by North Melbourne’s Jack Ziebell last week. Funnily enough though, I think his absence may be a blessing in disguise.

Suggested Bet: Western Bulldogs to win by under 40: $2.50

Sydney v GWS, Saturday April 22, 7:25pm, SCG

The 12th Sydney Derby may be the passing of the torch from the older brother to the younger as the fourth-placed Giants will go in as favourites for the first time in a derby against the winless Swans, who sit in 16th spot.

Last season’s runners-up opened on Monday as a $2.89 outsider with the Giants at $1.42. Those odds were gobbled up by punters which has seen the hosts come into $2.75 and the visitors ease slightly to $1.45.

The line has also come in slightly from 15.5 to 13.5, an important note here is that the Swans haven’t reached 100 points yet this year.

It’s been a horror start for the red and white but they are set to welcome back several of their stars for this one with Kurt Tippett, Isaac Heeney, Gary Rohan and Jarrad McVeigh.

Highlighting just how rare it is that the Swans go into a home game at the SCG as an outsider is that it’s only happened on three occasions in their last 55 games at the venue.

The last time it happened was Round 5, 2014 against Fremantle, when they were a $2.50 shot and came out and won by 17 points. Their current quote of $2.75 is the longest price they’ve been since Round 18, 2009, when they lost by a point to the Saints as a $5.45 outsider.

If they are to make it three then they’ll have to raise their game in a big way. Since losing to the Crows in Round One, the Giants have won three straight, without getting out of third gear.

They’ve won their last two against the Swans – including the Qualifying Final last year – and I’m taking them to make it three in a row here. But not by a lot, as the Swans have lost just seven games in the past five seasons by more than a 40-point margin.

Suggested Bet: GWS to win by under 40: $2.10

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all the below for $8.24 at Sportsbet

Port Adelaide to win by over 30: $1.57

Western Bulldogs to win by under 40: $2.50

GWS to win by under 40: $2.10

AFL Round 5 odds:

Port Adelaide $1.13 (-37.5) v Carlton $6.05 (+37.5)

Western Bulldogs $1.07 (-42.5) v Brisbane $8.50 (+42.5)

Gold Coast $4 (+27.5) v Adelaide $1.25 (-27.5)

Sydney $2.75 (+13.5) v Greater Western Sydney $1.45 (-13.5)

Fremantle $1.50 (-12.5) v North Melbourne $2.60 (+12.5)

St Kilda $2.85 (+15.5) v Geelong $1.43 (-15.5)

Hawthorn $3.10 (+18.5) v West Coast $1.38 (-18.5)

Richmond $1.74 (-5.5) v Melbourne $2.10 (+5.5)

Essendon $2.10 (+4.5) v Collingwood $1.74 (-4.5)

Odds sourced from Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing*


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