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AFL Round 6 2018: Friday and Saturday Specials

Wed, Apr 25, 2:44pm by Staff Writer

After an action packed ANZAC round of football, all eyes turn to round 6, with just a two-day turnaround from the end of round 5.

The match of the round between Geelong and Sydney is somewhat dampened by the news that Swans forward Lance Franklin will miss the Swans trip to Geelong.

Elsewhere, the Giants, Hawks and Crows are all short priced favourites to win at home.

Western Bulldogs versus Carlton

Friday, 27 April 2018 at 7.50pm AEST at Etihad Stadium

Two sides in the bottom four face off in a Friday night clash under lights at Etihad Stadium, with both in desperate need of a win.

Despite being winless, Carlton have been competitive in four of their five matches this season, with the exception being a huge 86-point loss against North Melbourne.

The same cannot be said for the Bulldogs who have been thumped by 50+ points on three occasions this season.

The fact that the Dogs are $1.44 favourites at Sportsbet is perplexing given their poor season to date, with the Blues $2.80 outsiders.

The Dogs are 15.5-point favourites at $1.92, another figure which can’t be justified.

If you’re looking for a value play then taking the backs-to-the-wall Blues to get their first win of the season by a margin of less than 39 points at $3.40 is the play.

With a range of options to take, siding with the conservative +15.5-point start will be the play for us.

Carlton showed that they can still find contested ball in their narrow loss against the Eagles last Saturday and they managed to curtail West Coast’s tall forward line.

For the Western Bulldogs to win, their manic pressure will need to be at its best, but it is hard to see them being motivated enough to do that against Carlton and with a six-day turnaround returning from Perth.

Best bet- Carlton to cover 15.5-point handicap at $1.92

Geelong versus Sydney

Saturday, 28 April 2018 at 1.45pm AEST at GMHBA Stadium

Geelong has finally found its feet this season, recording back-to-back wins against St Kilda and Port Adelaide.

Last weekend’s win against Port was a great confidence boost for the Cats, who pulled away from the Power late in the match.

Geelong open as $1.45 favourites at home as they host Sydney who are $2.75 on Saturday afternoon.

The Cats’ odds were crushed in earlier in the week after the news that Lance Franklin would miss the game through injury.

Sydney’s fortunes have been mixed this season, with the Swans winning both games on the road and losing their two home games at the SCG, which is uncharacteristic for them.

The Swans’ midfield production has been down this season, with Dan Hannebury and Josh Kennedy both performing at their poorest for some time.

Joel Selwood’s one match suspension is being contested by Geelong at the tribunal, but even if Selwood is unavailable, the Cats should be too strong at home.

The last time these two sides met was in last’s years semi final where the Cats crushed Sydney by 59 points to end the Swans near miraculous run to the Grand Final.

Sydney has beaten Geelong in its last two trips to GMHBA Stadium so the ground won’t pose any problem for the Swans, who have enjoyed recent success there against the Cats.

Those were different Sydney teams, with this year’s squad looking rather lean in the centre of the ground, an area of strength for the Cats.

Sydney won’t get blown out, they rarely do, but the Cats should win this one.

Best bet- Geelong Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $2.10

Greater Western Sydney Giants versus Brisbane Lions

Saturday, 28 April 2018 at 4.35pm AEST at Spotless Stadium

The Giants were part of the competition’s first draw of the 2018 last season when they were wasteful in front of goal against St Kilda.

The Lions fought until the very end against Gold Coast in the 15th Q-Clash but lost out by five points.

The Giants are short priced favourites to hand the Lions their sixth straight loss to start the season at $1.11. Brisbane is $6.70 at Sportsbet.

The opening line for this match is set at 38.5-points, with GWS beating that line four of the past five times they have played Brisbane and by some margin.

The last time these two teams met at the Gabba last season the Giants were on a rampage winning by 80 points.

GWS is back at its home ground in Western Sydney after the Easter Show occupied the ground for some weeks and face a Lions side that struggled in its last outing on the road, losing to Brisbane by 93 points.

It is hard to see how the Lions aren’t biggest outsiders in this match, given the gulf in quality between these two sides.

It is not often we will take a nearly 40-point start, but this is too good to pass up and the line should continue to increase.

Best bet- Greater Western Sydney to cover 38.5-point handicap at $1.92

AFL Round 6 Odds – Sportsbet

Western Bulldogs $1.44 v Carlton $2.80

Geelong $1.45 v Sydney $2.75

North Melbourne $2.75 v Port Adelaide $1.46

GWS $1.11 v Brisbane $6.70

Hawthorn $1.30 v St Kilda $3.56

Adelaide $1.10 v Gold Coast $7

Essendon $1.84 v Melbourne $1.97

Collingwood $2.78 v Richmond $1.45

Fremantle $2.15 v West Coast $1.71

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