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AFL Round 6 Best Bets: Back the underdogs to beat the line

Wed, Apr 26, 11:22am by Head Editor

For the second week in a row, punters are smiling after 7 of the 9 games were won by the favourites.

The only underdogs to salute were the Bombers, who beat the Magpies by 18 points on Anzac Day, and the Hawks – who finally got on the board at the juicy odds of $3.10 – with a big win over the Eagles on Sunday night.

Round Six kicks off with a bang on Friday night when the reigning Premiers take on the Premiership favourites in the nation’s capital.

The following day, the Hawks will be aiming for two in a row against the Saints before the Swans aim for their first win of the season against the Blues.

The Swans are a $1.11 favourite for that match, with another club who are aiming for their first win of the season – North Melbourne – at $1.47 to beat the Suns later the same day.

This is the first time that two 0-5 teams have entered Round Six as favourites.

The 45th Western Derby will be played on Saturday night with the Eagles to go in as strong favourites.

Essendon ($1.88) host Melbourne ($1.92) at Etihad Stadium on Sunday before Collingwood ($4.70) aim to ease the pressure on their coach Nathan Buckley with an unlikely win against the second placed Geelong ($1.19).

The final match of the round is the top of the table clash between Adelaide ($1.18) and Richmond ($4.90).

For the first time this season, we made a loss (17%) last week, backing three winners from seven bets, but we’ve been hard at it since the final siren on Tuesday, with the aim of bouncing back. Here’s our best bets for Round Six:

Greater Western Sydney v Western Bulldogs, Friday April 28, 7:50pm, UNSW Canberra Oval

Despite both sides going into this contest at 4-1, the reigning Premier will start a huge underdog when they make the trip north to take on GWS in the nation’s capital.

This clash could be a sign of things to come this season. The Giants last met the Bulldogs in last year’s preliminary final with the Dogs coming out on top by one straight kick.

The odds for them to do it again are $3.42 with the hosts at the short quote of $1.32.

That quote seems too short, even though the Giants have started the season much better than their opponents. The line is at an attractive 20.5 points.

The Doggies lead the head-to-head record at five wins to two and have won both games that have been played at Canberra.

Although it’s early, neither club are likely to make too many changes to their line-ups. Stephen Coniglio is close to returning from an ankle injury for the Giants.

The line of 20.5 points seems very generous, my advice would be to take it as early as possible, as it won’t last.

Suggested Bet: Dogs to cover the line (20.5): $1.92

North Melbourne v Gold Coast, Saturday April 29, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

There haven’t been many better 0-5 teams than North Melbourne, who’ve lost three games by under a goal, who have a better percentage than five other clubs, including Fremantle who beat them last week and have won three games this season.

This week, they take on a Gold Coast side who’ve shown glimpses of the quality that we all know that they have, but once again, have frustrated, winning just two of their opening five.

The Suns dropped their last fixture against this week’s opponent, by 38 points, way back in Round Five of last season, but before that, had the better of the Kangas on three straight occasions.

Despite failing to get on the board this season, North are a $1.47 favourite with the visitors at $2.68. The line of 13.5 is what interests me though.

North have had real trouble closing out games this season, leading by at least 20 points in the second half against Geelong, the Bulldogs and Fremantle so I like the Suns at the 13-point line.

Suggested Bet: Gold Coast to cover the line (13.5): $1.92

West Coast v Fremantle, Saturday April 29, 8:10pm, Domain Stadium

The build-up is always huge for the derby and this week will be no different with both the Eagles and the Dockers sitting at 3-2.

Despite their horrible effort against the Hawks on Sunday, the Eagles are a $1.45 favourite with the Dockers, who beat North Melbourne in a thriller on Saturday night, at $2.77.

The Eagles hold the slight advantage in the overall ledger with 24 wins to 20 but the spotlight has been turned up on them after they were belted by 50 points against a previously winless Hawthorn at the MCG on Sunday.

West Coast have won their last three against the Dockers but we all know the troubles that have plagued Ross Lyon’s side since they lost the 2015 Preliminary Final to Hawthorn.

After a horrible start, the Dockers have won their last three games, so we’re going to take them to cover the 17-point line here.

Suggested Bet: Fremantle to cover the line (16.5): $1.92

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all the below for $7.07 at Sportsbet

Dogs to cover the line (20.5): $1.92

Gold Coast to cover the line (13.5): $1.92

Fremantle to cover the line (16.5): $1.92

AFL Round 6 Odds:
Greater Western Sydney $1.32 (-20.5) v Western Bulldogs (+20.5)
Hawthorn $1.81 (-2.5) v St Kilda $2 (+2.5)
Carlton $6.70 (+37.5) v Sydney $1.11 (-37.5)
Brisbane $4.75 (+30.5) v Port Adelaide $1.19 (-30.5)
North Melbourne $1.47 (-13.5) v Gold Coast $2.68 (+13.5)
West Coast $1.45 (-16.5) v Fremantle $2.77 (+16.5)
Essendon $1.88 (-0.5) v Melbourne $1.92 (+0.5)
Geelong $1.19 (-29.5) v Collingwood $4.70 (+29.5)
Adelaide $1.18 (-30.5) v Richmond $4.90 (+30.5)

Odds sourced by Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing*


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