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AFL Round 7 Best Bets: GWS over Saints, Dogs, Cats to bounce back

Wed, May 3, 9:12am by Head Editor

Round Six of the AFL season was much tougher than the previous few weeks for punters, with four of the nine games going the way of the underdog.

One club who were expected to win, and did so by a massive margin, was the Adelaide Crows, who are the new Premiership favourite ($3.75) after smashing Richmond by 76 points on Sunday.

Round Seven kicks off on Friday night when St Kilda host the team that Adelaide replaced at the top of Premiership betting – GWS.

The following day, North Melbourne’s odds of $6.05 against the red-hot Crows ($1.13), are the longest for any of the 12 matches they’ve hosted in Tasmania. Elsewhere, Collingwood ($1.35) host Carlton ($3.20) at the MCG and Port Adelaide ($1.34) entertain West Coast ($3.30).

Saturday night sees one of the matches of the round when the reigning Premiers host Richmond at Etihad Stadium and Geelong head to the Sunshine state to take on the Suns.

On Sunday, Sydney are just the third 0-6 team to start favourite ($1.14) since 2007, when they host Brisbane ($5.75). The other two sides – Brisbane and Gold Coast – both lost.

The next game on Sunday will see Hawthorn start as an underdog ($2.70) against Melbourne ($1.47) for the first time since Round 8, 2006 and Fremantle ($1.50) host Essendon ($2.62).

WATCH: We pick out the Best Bets for Round 7 of the AFL

We made a small loss on our five AFL best bets last weekend, backing two winners. Here’s our best bets for Round Seven:

St Kilda v GWS, Friday May 5, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium

After never playing a Friday night game, the Giants will pull the boots on for the second time in two weeks in the most coveted time-slot. They’ll meet the Saints, who ended Hawthorn’s love affair with Tasmania last week.

GWS beat the Bulldogs by two points in one of the games of the season last Friday, and are a $1.42 favourite to win their sixth game from seven starts in this one.

The Saints are at $2.90 to cause a boil over, with the line looking generous at 14.5 points. The last time these clubs met at this venue was Round 5 of last season with the Giants getting the job done by 41 points.

The stat that jumps out off the page here is that the visitors lead the AFL in clearances, while the Saints come in last place. In centre clearances, it’s once again an area that the Giants will dominate, they rank fourth, with their opponents in 13th.

I’m taking the Giants to cover the 14.5-point line which seems a little low given how much quality the Giants have on every line.

Suggested Bet: GWS by over 14 points: $1.92

Western Bulldogs v Richmond, Saturday May 6, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium

The Dogs host the Tigers at Etihad on Saturday night in what will be the second test in as many weeks for just how far this Richmond outfit has come.

The Tigers were dominated by the Crows on Sunday to the tune of 76 points in the top of the table clash at the Adelaide Oval. A result that has brought them back to earth, it will be interesting to see how they respond as they take on the Bulldogs at Etihad.

The Dogs lost a nail-biter to the Giants on Friday, a result they could have avoided had they kicked straight, their final tally of 9.19 would left a bad taste in the mouth of their coach Luke Beveridge.

The reigning Premiers are $1.32 to bounce back into the winners circle here, with the visitors at $3.40. The line is at 18.5 points.

Toby Nankervis is a huge loss for the yellow and black, with the ruckman accepting a one-match ban for an elbow to the head of Adelaide’s David Mackay.

This one should be an entertaining one to watch as both clubs have played some good footy this year but the Dogs will be too strong, they showed last week that they still have what it takes. They also have an extra two day’s break over their opponents.

Suggested Bet: Western Bulldogs to win by under 40: $2.10

Gold Coast v Geelong, Saturday May 6, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium

The Cats head north to take on the Suns with the aim of getting back onto the winners list, after they were shocked by Collingwood on Sunday. Gold Coast took it up to North Melbourne all the way on Saturday night but eventually came up 13 points short.

Gold Coast opened at $3.78 on Monday but have come into $3.65, while the Cats have drifted ever so slightly from $1.27 to $1.29.

Gary Ablett played one of the best of his illustrious 294 game career last week, and will no doubt be up for it against his old club, and the club he wanted to be traded back to in the summer.

The main issue for his side last week was the defence, with no Steven May, Ben Brown was able to kick a bag of six. Tom Hawkins will be aiming to do the same this week.

Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield had very rare poor games last week but I’m giving them and their club another chance.

Suggested Bet: Geelong to win by under 40: $2.10

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all the below for $8.46 at Sportsbet

GWS to win by over 14: $1.92

Western Bulldogs to win by under 40: $2.10

Geelong to win by under 40: $2.10

AFL Round 7 odds:

St Kilda $2.90 (+14.5) v Greater Western Sydney $1.42 (-14.5)

North Melbourne $6.05 (+37.5) v Adelaide $1.13 (-37.5)

Collingwood $1.35 (-19.5) v Carlton $3.20 (+19.5)

Port Adelaide $1.34 (-19.5) v West Coast $3.30 (+19.5)

Gold Coast $3.65 (+20.5) v Geelong $1.29 (-20.5)

Western Bulldogs $1.32 (-18.5) v Richmond $3.40 (+18.5)

Sydney $1.14 (-40.5) v Brisbane $5.75 (+40.5)

Melbourne $1.46 (-14.5) v Hawthorn $2.75 (+14.5)

Fremantle $1.50 (-12.5) v Essendon $2.62 (+12.5)

Odds supplied by Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing*


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