Fri, May 4, 4:33pm by Staff Writer
Round 7 of the 2018 AFL season continues on Sunday with three matches, headlined by Richmond trying to maintain their hot start to the season against a surprising Dockers side at the MCG.
Richmond versus Fremantle
Sunday, 6 May 2018 at 1.10pm AEST at the MCG
Richmond are at the top of the ladder for a second consecutive week and will look to continue their sensational start to the season with a win against the Dockers on Sunday afternoon.
The Tigers are $1.13 favourites for the match, with Fremantle big outsiders at $6.
The Dockers were better than expected in last weekend’s Western Derby, despite losing to the Eagles. How much energy they will have after a week of controversy due to off-field issues surrounding coach Ross Lyon and the let-down after the Derby remains to be seen.
Richmond kicked away from Collingwood in the final quarter despite the Pies dogged play during the first three quarters, winning the match by 43 points.
The last time these two sides met at the MCG it was a David Mundy after-the-siren goal that won the match for Fremantle at an almost identical time of the season in 2017.
At that time, nobody expected Richmond to win the Premiership and this Tigers side is a far better team than they were that afternoon.
Richmond thrashed Freo by 104 points late last season and while this match won’t be as one-sided as that, Richmond should have no trouble brushing aside the visitors on Sunday.
Michael Walters is the only omission for both sides as he misses this match with an ankle injury.
The Tigers have had no issue thumping teams this season and with the line set at 36.5-points favouring the Tigers, they should have no trouble winning this match 40+.
Curiously, the 40+ market is paying $1.91, so take the line instead as it is better value.
Best bet- Richmond to cover 36.5-point handicap at $1.92
St Kilda versus Melbourne
Sunday, 6 May 2018 at 3.20pm AEST at Etihad Stadium
Melbourne once again broke their shackles at Etihad Stadium, proving their hoodoo at the ground is well and truly over with a six goal win against the Bombers last week.
The Saints stuck with Hawthorn for three quarters in Launceston before a limp final term saw them lose by 35 points.
The hosts go into this must-win match as $3.25 underdogs with their season quickly slipping away. The Demons are $1.35 favourites.
Melbourne has won the last two matches between the clubs which both took place last season. A 30-point round one win was followed by a four goal win late in the season.
In a boost for the Demons they welcome back Christian Petracca from a finger injury, as well as goal sneak Jeff Garlett.
The Saints are ‘managing’ Blake Acres and have included David Armitage on an extended bench.
St Kilda have only recorded one win this season and have struggled, particularly kicking goals.
A season that has promised so much has delivered so little for them to date, but they will take solace in the fact that they are playing at Etihad Stadium where they play their best football.
The Demons are no finals certainty themselves, but would be hoping to continue their momentum from a season-defining win last weekend.
They should get the job done against the Saints in a close, low scoring match.
Best bet- Melbourne Big Win Little Win 1-39 at $2
Brisbane versus Collingwood
Sunday, 6 May 2018 at 4.40pm AEST at the Gabba
The Lions’ pursuit for their first win this season continues on Sunday night when they host Collingwood at the Gabba.
The Pies have been well supported all week, coming in from $1.45 to $1.32 for the match. Brisbane are $3.40 outsiders.
Despite being outplayed for four quarters, a final losing margin of only 34 points against GWS will please Lions coach Chris Fagan, as his side could and should have been blown away by 10+ goals.
Collingwood have enjoyed a productive last few weeks, with wins against Adelaide and Essendon. The side simply ran out of legs late in their match against Richmond after a short turnaround from ANZAC Day and playing the best team in the competition.
Brisbane have been competitive in their home matches, losing narrowly to Melbourne and the Gold Coast this season.
The 20.5-point line about the Lions looks the play given Collingwood’s heavy recent schedule, including travelling twice in the past three weeks and the fact that Brisbane are yet to win a game.
Their luck will surely turn soon and while they may not win this match, they can keep it close.
Best bet- Brisbane Lions to cover 20.5-point handicap at $1.92
AFL Round 7 Sunday Odds – Sportsbet
Richmond $1.13 v Fremantle $6
St Kilda $3.25 v Melbourne $1.35
Brisbane $3.40 v Collingwood $1.32
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