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Best bets and value tips for 2014 NRL State Of Origin Game 3

Tue, Jul 8, 12:56pm by Rob Sheeley

State of Origin 2014Match: Queensland vs. New South Wales – State of Origin Game 3
When/Where: 8:00pm, Wednesday, July 9 at Suncorp Stadium
Bet with: – collect up to $700 in free bets!

“Ding dong, the witch is dead.”

The famous Wizard of Oz quote that Jack Gibson uttered to a packed Parramatta leagues club in 1981 when Parramatta won their first premiership, but also a quote very applicable to New South Wales in 2014.

After eight long years of suffering, the Blues finally recaptured the State of Origin title this year after winning games one and two. It may not have been on the back of spectacular point-scoring or champagne rugby league, but the Blues did what they had to in order to secure the series victory.

They will head into game three looking to make it a three-nil whitewash, while the Queenslanders have other ideas.

The Maroons will be hurting after such a long run of dominance and if anything, they have more to play for than New South Wales.

Queensland is a team filled with champion players and when their pride is battered, you will often see the best in them.

On that basis, it is little surprise that the Queenslanders will start as favourites come Wednesday night. The Maroons are currently $1.57 to take out the match while New South Wales are $2.47.

The State of Origin stats that matter

Queensland still hold the upper hand historically and boast an imposing record at Suncorp Stadium.

  • The sides have met 101 times, Queensland has won 53, New South Wales has won 47 and there has been one draw.
  • There has been 30 series played between the two teams, Queensland has won 18, New South Wales has won 12.
  • Queensland has won six of the last 11 matches between the two teams.
  • Queensland has won five of the last six matches played at Suncorp Stadium.

Queensland State of Origin team & form

Queensland have again named an extended team which will not be finalised until closer to kick-off.

The biggest change is the return of playmaker Cooper Cronk from a broken arm. Will Chambers also comes into the centres for the injured Brent Tate.

1. Billy Slater
2. Darius Boyd
3. Greg Inglis
4. Justin Hodges
5. Will Chambers
6. Johnathan Thurston
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jacob Lillyman
9. Cameron Smith
10. Nate Myles
11. Sam Thaiday
12. Aidan Guerra
13. Corey Parker


14. Daly Cherry-Evans
15. Ben Te’o
16. Matt Gillett
17. Dave Taylor
18. Josh McGuire
19. Michael Morgan

When the pressure has been applied to Queensland in the 2014 series, so far they have come up short. The Maroons had ample opportunities to win both game one and game two, games that they would have easily taken out at the peak of their powers.

With questions now being asked of this Maroons outfit, they get the opportunity to show that they have the quality to compete with New South Wales. What’s more, they get to do so free from the shackles of pressure or with anything of note on the line.

Cooper Cronk dives straight back in at the deep end after breaking his arm in game one and his contributions will be integral for Queensland. Many consider his absence as the reason for the Maroons series loss. Whether he is able to step straight back up to the highest level with supreme confidence remains to be seen.

Greg Inglis has proven over the years that he is a match-winner for the Maroons. We are yet to see him at his devastating best in 2014. If Queensland come out firing, it may be worth investing on Inglis for man of the match. He is currently $13 with IASbet to take out that award.

New South Wales State of Origin team & form

The Blues coach Laurie Daley has had to make a few changes due to players returning and others out injured or suspended.

Newcastle winger James McManus comes in on the wing for the injured Will Hopoate and the returning Josh Morris takes the Michael Jennings place who is also out injured.

Anthony Watmough is absent due to suspension with Boyd Cordner coming in on the bench while Ryan Hoffman and Beau Scott will start in the back row.

1. Jarryd Hayne
2. James McManus
3. Josh Dugan
4. Josh Morris
5. Daniel Tupou
6. Josh Reynolds
7. Trent Hodkinson
8. Paul Gallen
9. Robbie Farah
10. Aaron Woods
11. Ryan Hoffman
12. Beau Scott
13. Greg Bird


14. Boyd Cordner
15. Luke Lewis
16. Trent Merrin
17. James Tamou

Attitude will be everything for New South Wales in this match. The Blues are entering a hostile environment and taking on a side who has plenty to play for. It could be easy for The Blues to rest on their laurels and be satisfied with a series win while their opposition is baying for blood.

It will come down to the platform laid by the New South Wales forward pack that matters most. Paul Gallen, Aaron Woods and Beau Scott will be instrumental in setting the initial tempo of the match. If they can get the upper hand it will go a long way to securing a three-nil series result.

Jarryd Hayne is a big game player and when he is on song, he has an omnipresence about him rivaled by very few in the games history. Look for the Hayne Plane to be the one to deliver for the Blues when it matters most.

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New South Wales vs. Queensland 2014 Game 3 prediction

This game has all the ingredients needed for a highly-entertaining affair. With no need for either team to “win ugly”, we may see some free flowing football.

If Queensland can not be up for this one then they never will be. This is judgement day for a few of the old guard to prove they are still worthy, or if it is time to start building for the future.

I am going along the lines of the “never write off a champion” school of thought and tipping the Maroons.

Prediction: Queensland by 7.

New South Wales vs. Queensland head-to-head betting

Queensland – $1.57 with
New South Wales – $2.47

Given the fact that Queensland has lost two matches in a row against New South Wales, they are not priced too generously at $1.57. They should be winning but this may not be the best value bet of the game.

State of Origin margin betting odds & tips

Queensland 1-12 – $2.90 with Sportingbet (better than $2.75 with IASbet)
Queensland 13+ – $3.25
New South Wales 1-12 – $3.50
New South Wales 13+ – $6.15
Draw – $21.00

It is a rare occurrence that an origin match is decided by 13+ and there is not reason why this should be any different. Queensland look huge value at $2.90 in the 1-12 bracket. This is my bet of the match.

Origin line betting odds & tip

New South Wales +4 – $1.92
Queensland -4 – $1.92

This market may carry a small amount of risk but Queensland should be able to cover the four point handicap. This looks a good bet to compliment a margin investment.

Try scorer & exotic bets

Queensland should open the scoring and I think it is most likely to be via their winger Darius Boyd. Boyd is currently $9.00 to score first with all bookmakers.

If you prefer a New South Wales player to open the try scoring, I’d lean to Daniel Tupou at $11.

As mentioned earlier, Greg Inglis is overdue for a big match. He looks a big price to take out the man of the match award at $13 with IASbet.

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