Fri, May 31, 2:18pm by Rob Sheeley
Match: Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys – NRL Round 12
When/Where: 3:00pm, Sunday 2nd June at Skilled Park
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com
This is an all Queensland battle between two sides who are both currently performing against the bookmakers expectations. The $67 premiership hopes, the Titans, currently sit in sixth place while the $26 chances, the Cowboys, are languishing in twelfth. This round also signifies the start of the period where the Cowboys lose their big guns for State of Origin, none bigger than Jonathan Thurston.
The Cowboys are coming off a loss to what appeared to be the most out of form team in the NRL, the Tigers. After scraping their way through the match they appeared as though they had done enough to hold on for a two point win. But the Tigers managed a miracle last minute try to sink the boys from North Queensland 22-20.
The Titans relished a trip to the New South Wales country when they annihilated the Parramatta Eels in Mudgee last Sunday 42-4. It was another sign that we may be underestimating the Gold Coast team a little in 2013. The fact that they have spent the whole season in the top eight has to mean something. They will also suffer player losses via State of Origin which will be a test of their clubs depth.
The Titans have been forced to make three changes due to their losses to State of Origin and injury. With Ashley Harrison and Greg Bird out on representative duties, the big coal train, Dave Taylor comes back in along with Luke O’Dwyer. Jamie Dowling is the new face on the bench for the Titans.
1. William Zillman
2. Kevin Gordon
3. Brad Takairangi
4. Jamal Idris
5. Anthony Don
6. Aidan Sezer
7. Albert Kelly
8. Luke Bailey
9. Matt Srama
10. Luke Douglas
11. David Taylor
12. Mark Minichiello
13. Luke O’Dwyer
14. Ryan James
15. Mark Ioane
16. Jamie Dowling
17. Sam Irwin
The Titans are coming off a massive win against the Eels last weekend and have won two of their last three matches. They have been a value team for head to head bettors all year and continue to fly under the radar. Despite being firmly ensconced in the top eight they are virtually unwanted in premiership betting markets at $67.
They may have lost two key players this weekend but have still fared a lot better than their opposition in that respect. Their try scoring spree last weekend may well instill some point scoring confidence. This is of importance to those considering margin or over/under total bets.
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The Cowboys have been forced to make a raft of changes due to both injuries and State of Origin. On top of players like Thurston, Scott and Tamou missing due to representative duties, the Cowboys have also lost brilliant full back Matt Bowen and centre Gavin Cooper to injury. Clint Greenshields will start at fullback with Kalifa Faifai Loa coming into the team on the wing. Antonio Winterstein has moved to the centres and Michael Morgan is back at five eighth. There are three new faces on the bench, Joel Riethmuller, Ricky Thorby and Jason Taumalolo fill those positions.
1. Clint Greenshields
2. Ashley Graham
3. Antonio Winterstein
4. Kane Linnett
5. Kalifa Faifai Loa
6. Michael Morgan
7. Robert Lui
8. Ashton Sims
9. Rory Kostjasyn
10. Scott Bolton
11. Tariq Sims
12. Glenn Hall
13. Dallas Johnson
14. Ray Thompson
15. Joel Riethmuller
16. Ricky Thorby
17. Jason Taumalolo
18. Ethan Lowe
19. Blake Leary
The Cowboys continue to be the under achievers of the 2013 competition and are coming off three consecutive losses. Last weekend’s loss would be their most embarrassing loss of the season. They entered the match as a very short priced favourite and failed to put the Tigers away, eventually losing in the dying minutes 22-20.
Given some of the Cowboys losses when fancied to win so far this season it is becoming very hard for punters to bet on them winning with any conviction. With their players missing they are big odds to win this week and it appears to be justifiably so.
The number of key player that are missing for the Cowboys has swayed betting on this match heavily in the Titans favour. In a game where both sides were at full strength you could expect the Cowboys to be close to head to head favourite. But such is the importance of their absentees that bookies are giving them next to no chance.
The Titans have the liberty of very able replacements for their missing players. Dave Taylor is a former origin player himself and more than capable of playing a major role in this match. Luke O’Dwyer also has vast NRL experience and is worth of a regular spot in the top grade. These replacements are a major factor in the Titans hopes here and a sign of the clubs depth.
The Cowboys look to be up against the odds here, the loss of Matt Bowen to compound their representative absentees is crippling. Given that I simply cannot tip against the Titans. They look too strong right across the park.
Titans by 14
Titans – $1.32 Head to Head with IASbet.com
Cowboys – $3.50
Given that they look like pretty good things, the $1.32 head to head looks pretty attractive for H@H punters.
Titans 1-12 – $2.88
Titans 13+ – $2.15 with IASbet.com
Cowboys 1-12 – $5.00
Cowboys 13+ – $11.00
The Titans are priced as though they will win by more than thirteen points so there is not a lot of value but it is still definitely the way to go for margin bettors.
Titans -9.5 – $1.92 with IASbet.com
Cowboys +9.5 – $1.92
The Titans look like they are more than capable of covering the line here. The $1.92 with IASbet.com is the best available with any bookies. It is well worth a punt for prospective spread bettors.
For the first try scorer of the match I like Kevin Gordon at $11 for the Titans, while his team mate Anthony Don is also worthy of consideration. Don is at $12 with IASbet.com
I also like the look of the total points over 37.5 points in the match in the over/under markets. The over result is currently $1.90 with IASbet.com
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