Thu, Jun 6, 1:55pm by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues – AFL Round 11
When/Where: 7:50pm, Friday 7 June 2013 at the MCG
Bet on Bombers vs Blues: IASbet.com
The fifth placed Bombers left the Harbour City defeated and probably a little deflated after their 44 point loss to the Sydney Swans. Essendon have now lost three of their past four games and have now slipped out of the top four for the first time in 2013. The Blues have won six of their past seven games and their last round win was a procession against the Giants. Carlton belittled the Giants in the third quarter, racking up 6 goals and limiting GWS to just 3 dismal behinds.
The bookies currently have the Essendon side at $15.00 to win the competition outright. Malthouse’s Blues are in sixth position on the ladder and rated a $17.00 chance to win the flag.
At this stage, the bookmakers are predicting a close match. The head to head betting market currently has Essendon as the $1.80 favourite whilst the Carlton Blues are $2.00. The handicap is currently 3.5 to Essendon with IASbet.com and is worth $1.92.
For this match, IASbet currently have 91 markets available. There should be some value to be found as the H2H, margin, line and tri bets are all on offer.
Essendon left their foot on the brake early in the Swans match – only managing to have 3 goals on the scoreboard at the half time break. Overall, the Bombers also kicked their lowest score of the season. They did manage to accelerate and put themselves in the match in the second half, but it was not enough. It appeared as though Essendon struggled with the wet conditions at the SCG. Some argue that the margin wasn’t a true indication of the game which was closer than what the final score demonstrated as the small SCG didn’t suit Essendon’s style of play.
Despite the debate, it was clear that Essendon failed to convert attack into score. For the Bombers, Michael Hurley and Ben Howlett are returning which will strengthen the midfield and forwards. It is likely that key Essendon defender Courtenay Dempsey will miss this game and Carlton’s speedy forwards will be looking to take advantage of this.
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This match presents Carlton with its first legitimate test. They struggled to beat the Lions and Port Adelaide in recent weeks and nothing can be taken from their victory last week as it was against the Giants. The best thing that came from last week’s victory was that it increased the Blues all important percentage – an important number in determining close ladder positions. The Carlton coach was critical of the Blues’ first half performance, claiming it lacked intensity. For the Blues, Chris Judd is in doubt after withdrawing last week with a hamstring injury.
Essendon tends to win the ruck most weeks however Carlton believe that Matthew Kreuzer will be able to match it with Paddy Ryder for athleticism and will be looking to try and assert some dominance in that area.
The midfield battle will be vital and fans will be looking to see Jobe Watson head to head with Marc Murphy. Essendon’s backline has not dealt well with quick, small forwards and Carlton has the best in the business in that category with the likes of Yarran, Betts and Garlett. Many have made comment that Essendon’s forward line is currently not functioning – demonstrated in last week’s performances when they failed to convert inside 50s into points.
This match is such a tough match to predict. The sides appear fairly even in most of the key performance indicators. The Blues come into the match with arguably better form as they have won 6 of their last 7 and momentum is massive plus in AFL. However, it cannot be forgotten that up until a few weeks ago, Essendon were the top ranked team in the competition. The Bombers will present to the Blues as a tough opponent. The Blues’ intensity cannot flee from the ground for patches like it has in recent weeks.
It has been difficult trying to predict a winner in this, but I am going to go with Essendon to win by a margin of 1-39. They are good odds in the H2H and the line bet looks great value with the small spread.
Bombers Head to Head: $1.80 with IASbet.com
Blues Head to Head: $2.00
By virtue of the H2H market being close, both teams are at nice betting odds. As we have tipped Essendon, it is worth backing them at $1.80 with IASbet.
Bombers 1-39: $2.45 with IASbet.com
Bombers 40+: $5.40
Blues 1-39: $2.70
Blues 40+: $7.00
I have tipped Essendon by 1-39 so the obvious bet here is to have Essendon by that margin. If you are one to have a bit of fun when betting, then throw $1 on the draw. The sides have played a draw in recent encounters and you never know, it might happen again.
Bombers -3.5: $1.92
Blues +3.5: $1.92
I have tipped Essendon and considering they only have to win by more than 4 points, an extra 12 cents in every dollar offers great value for line bettors.
Bombers over 15.5 points: $2.50 with IASbet.com
Blues over 15.5 points: $3.10
Either team under 15.5 points: $2.65
If you think Essendon can put 3 goals on Carlton, a bet here won’t go astray. However, given the closeness of the game, the tri bet may be a risk and it is much safer to go for the 1-39 margin.
If you were looking to play around with one of the more exotic markets, have a look at the doubles market. The market for Carlton to score first and lose is currently paying $3.70. It may be worth considering given Essendon’s risky starts in recent times and the fact that we have tipped Essendon to win overall.
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