Fri, May 10, 1:58pm by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles – AFL Round 7
When/Where: 2:10pm Saturday, 11 May 2013 at the Gabba
AG Recommended AFL Bookmaker: www.Bet365.com
West Coast travel to Brisbane to take on the Lions at home. West Coast had the biggest winning margin last round of 70 points and it was no coincidence that it came at the same time as the return of Nic Nat.
The Eagles are 10th on the ladder and Brisbane are below them in 14th spot. The Eagles are $14.00 with IASbet to be the grand final victors. Brisbane are clearly not favoured to trouble the 2013 Premiership as they are rated a $501 chance with IASbet.
In this match, the Eagles will be looking to make a climb up the ladder after last week’s dominant performance. They will be full of confidence against a Brisbane side that were taught a lesson by the Swans last round.
Some interesting pointers for this match:
The Lions have 2 wins and 4 losses for the current season. Their biggest win was by 28 points against the hapless Demons. Three of the Lions losses have been by 60 points or more. The Eagles have the same win/loss record. However, their biggest victory has been by a huge 70 points and their biggest loss was by 40 points.
In Round 4 the Lions suffered a 63 point loss. The Lions were out of it from the first quarter when they were out scored 5 goals to 1. They didn’t recover from that point. Lions skipper Jonathan Brown was well covered and given no opportunity to assist his team. The West Coast also suffered a loss in Round 4, but only by 24 points. That loss came against Carlton. The Eagles had most of the attacking play in the first quarter but the game shifted in the second quarter. They managed to win the contests in the middle but it was their sloppiness in front of goal that cost them points.
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In Round 5 the Lions managed a 28 point win against a Demons team who have been extremely disappointing this year. The Lions weren’t all that convincing as they didn’t go away with the match until the second half. Brett Moloney was key for the Lions in that match with 35 disposals and 10 clearances. Brisbane won the disposal count 418-302 and dominated the midfield. In the same round, the Eagles went down narrowly to the 3rd ranked Port Adelaide side. The Eagles dominated the first three quarters, with Port Adelaide’s fitness proving too much in the fourth quarter. At one stage, the Eagles led by 41 points. But again, they were sloppy in front of goal and this ultimately cost them like it did in their Round 4 loss.
Last round against the Swans, the Lions were given a footballing lesson. They went down by 60 points and were smashed 7 goals to 1 in the first quarter. The Lions only managed a total of 8 goals for the entire game. The Swans midfield racked up huge numbers and moved the ball forward with ease. Brisbane’s inability to get hold of the ball was shown through the extraordinary statistic in the first quarter – the Swans achieved the most possessions ever by a Swans team in the first quarter. Even though the Swans had all the ball, the Lions lost the tackle count. It makes for dismal reading for Lions fans, but it is also blatantly clear what areas they need to address. In contrast, the Eagles welcomed back some key players in Round 6 and they cruised to a 70 point victory over the poorly performed Bulldogs. They dominated the marks 114-54 and made plenty of tackles and kicks.
In this clash, Dean Cox and Nic Natainui are the obvious threats that the Lions need to keep in check. Pearce Hanley is one of the Lions key players and he will have to work hard through the midfield to prevent the Eagles getting too much ball. He is known to be a good defender. Sharrod Wellingham was impressive last week on debut for the Eagles and will take confidence into this match.
It was evident from their performance last week that the Eagles fortunes are changing. The Lions recent form has demonstrated that they can’t score points and they leak points at the same time. It’s not the sort of form that would instil much confidence in the players. In contrast, the Eagles have shown they can score points and their point scoring ability is only bolstered by the return of some of their key players. Defensively, they are better than the Lions as well.
The foregone conclusion from the form and statistics is that the Eagles will win. The Lions can only win if they find the ability to score and defend and stick with it for the whole match. The only advantage the Lions have is that they play well at home.
Brisbane are currently $4.50 to win and the Eagles are very short at $1.22. In the margin betting Brisbane are at $4.40 to win by 1-39 and the Eagles are at $2.25. To win by 40+, the Eagles are paying $2.60.
The line is +25.5 for Brisbane at $1.92 (-25.5 for the Eagles) with the Bet365 Bookmaker.
In order to return some value, you may consider placing some on the Eagles to win by 1-39 at $2.25 with Bet365.com. This offers a better return than the $1.22 on offer for the win. If you were feeling confident, the super margin bet for the Eagles to win by 30-39 is paying $8.00.
Another interesting bet is for Brent Moloney to have most possessions for the game out of those players listed in the IASbet.com “Most Possessions Grp1” category. He is currently paying $6.00 and has been proven he can take plenty of possession in matches against the Demons and the Bulldogs.
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