Fri, May 9, 11:40am by Daryl Curnow
Where: Doomben, Brisbane.
When: Saturday, May 10. First race starts at 12:10pm.
Open an account with Centrebet for $200 in free bets which can be used over the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival.
Doomben plays hosts to day two of the Brisbane Carnival as the BTC Cup takes centre stage for the sprinters. Can home town hero and favourite Buffering capture another major win or will an out of state rival dampen the party? Check our racing preview below for market odds, form and selections.
Elusive Storm has not put a foot wrong at her last three starts, winning all of them including beating a field of 16 last time out at Eagle Farm. The Brian Smith-trained mare is a seven-time winner from 30 starts who is in a rich vein of form and she is rightfully the $3.60 favourite. She has won five and placed in four from 13 starts on this course and three times at the distance so statistically she looks well placed. In three starts on a heavy track she has yet to win and it is meant to rain on the day but the conditions shouldn’t be too bad.
Splendora is fresh up for Matthew Dunn following a campaign where the filly finished second in a listed race on this track. The three-year-old finished second behind Enquare who is running in the top races this winter and she was very unlucky in the Group Three Vo Rouge when finishing fifth. She was again unlucky in the Magic Millions after getting blocked in the straight. She has won fresh up in the past and despite a wide draw she looks a huge hope in this.
Magic In Motion has yet to win at Doomben but she is in a good stable and another win won’t be far away. The Robert Heathcote-trained mare finished second behind Elusive Storm last time out after producing a solid finish near the line. She drops back in distance slightly which won’t be of concern as her distance stats include two wins and five placings from 10 starts.
Selection: Splendora to win ($3.80) at Sportsbet.com.au
In a field void of any great form, Cracco has opened as the $3.50 favourite following a last start second placing at Eagle Farm. The Brian Smith-trained gelding won four starts back on this course and he hasn’t been far off the pace since. The son of Rock Of Gibraltar is a five-win type and he will have the fitness to topple most of these, not to mention a good draw and weight.
Lady Echelon has the most exposed form having run second in a listed event last time out at Eagle Farm. The four-year-old hasn’t won for awhile now but she is in cracking form and she has won at this course in the past. She does rise in weight to 56.5kg but she has drawn barrier two and that will play out perfectly.
Bewhatyouwannabe has been well supported in the market at $4 and the Robert Heathcote-trained gelding is now fit after three runs this campaign. The son of Fastnet Rock’s last start was good after getting too far back and rushing home late for fifth. There are some concerns that he hasn’t won in seven starts on this track but he has drawn well and the betting support suggests he should be in the mix.
Selection: Lady Echelon/Cracco quinella at IASbet.com
Havana is a classy type from the Paul Messara stable and he has been elected the $2.70 favourite after opening at $3. The three-year-old is only a one race winner from nine starts but he has done most of his racing against group opposition on Sydney. He finished sixth behind Zoustar, sixth behind Hucklebuck and most recently sixth behind Sidestep, all of which are top class horses around Australia. He did win two starts back in a maiden event by four lengths which suggests this grade won’t be too hard.
Agitate is a solid colt in the Kelly Schweida stables who is second up here after finishing second at Eagle Farm last start. The three-year-old colt has great course and distance stats with four wins coming at Doomben and he has never finished out of the money over this distance. Unlike a lot of runners he has won on a good, dead, slow and heavy track so he will be suited to the conditions no matter what weather comes.
Sept De Coeurs is a good outside chance at $13 after running in good company her last two starts. The three-year-old filly finished only 0.5 lengths behind Dreifontein two starts back and she has since gone on to win a Group One in Adelaide. She was a touch disappointing last time out but she has won and placed in a fresh state and she could sneak a place at nice odds.
Selection: Havana to win ($2.70) at Sportsbet.com.au
A very good field of two-year-old’s compete here with the John O’Shea-trained Shaumari opening at $4.50 and has been smashed into $2.80. The filly is by rising sire Medaglia d’Oro and she wasn’t far away last time out at Randwick in a group three event. She was an easy winner on debut at Warwick Farm by 2.75 lengths on a heavy track and she will no doubt maker her presence felt here.
Eloping is an underrated filly who last won the Group Three Keith MacKay Stakes at Randwick. The Choisir filly was a touch unlucky two starts back in the Golden Slipper and she won a nice race prior by a massive six lengths. She has had a long preparation and could be coming to the end of it but she will be fitter than most and she has the class edge over this entire field.
Brazen Beau is at a nice price of $9 following a spell. The Chris Waller-trained colt won on debut by 4.5 lengths and then finished fifth in a listed event at Warwick Farm. He did however blunder during the race and took his chances of winning, therefore his run for fifth is better than it looks. He is bred to be something good and he should run well fresh up here at nice odds.
Selection: Shaumari to win ($2.80) at IASbet.com
Danchai is a great bet in this at $2.50 after finishing strongly along the inside last time out at Randwick in the Group Three JRA Plate. The imported gelding is having his fourth start in Australia and he appreciated the rise in distance to 2000 metres last time out. This is a massive step down in class from that and he should simply win.
Carmora was a last start winner at Eagle Farm and he now makes the step up in distance for this. He has won and placed twice at Doomben and he can handle any track conditions having won on a good, slow and heavy track. This is a rise in class for the four-year-old but he’s better over the longer distances and this will suit perfectly.
Lauren Tate is a New Zealand mare who won a Group Two event last time out to the races. The four-year-old mare has won four of her 12 career starts and she has shown good enough form to be competitive in Australia. This field, besides Danchai, isn’t great and the Kiwi’s have a good record in the Brisbane carnival. Her quote of $12 is too high and she is at good value.
Selection: Danchai to win ($2.50) at Centrebet.com
The Kiwi’s dominate the market with Telepathic opening at $4.40. The Donna Logan-trained filly has won her last two in New Zealand and she will again make a step up in distance to 2000 metres for this. She is a daughter of Mossman who are running hot at the moment and she looks to have above average potential. Top rider Mark Du Plessis rides from a slightly wide barrier draw but she gets back and she will be running home strongly with only 55kg on her back.
Fellow Kiwi Glorious Lad finished an unlucky second behind Telepathic last time out but this gelding finished third in the NZ Derby behind Puccini and there is no issues about whether he will stay or not. The Shaune Ritchie-trained three-year-old is an out-an-out staying type who will find this company much easier than he’s faced in recent starts. He opened at $6 and has since been bet into $5 so there is good support for the Kiwi raider.
Pheidon is a quality type for Gai Waterhouse who finished second behind Arabian Gold in the Group Three Packer Plate. The son of Al Maher won the Alistar Clark Group Two event at Moonee Valley in dominant fashion by two lengths and he will be tough to beat in this. He is unbeaten on a good track and can handle the wets conditions so the $3.60 on offer is around the mark.
Selection: Glorious Lad to win ($5) at Sportsbet.com.au
Buffering is everyone’s favourite and rightfully so as the Robert Heathcote-trained gelding looks to get back to winning form in the day’s feature race. The six-year-old won three back-to-back Group One’s last campaign and he was solid in running third behind Lankan Rupee last time out in the TJ Smith. He is a 15 time winner with three coming on this track and the $2 may seem short, but he is well weighted here and it’s a nice price to include into multi-bets.
Spirit Of Boom may have finished behind his stablemate last time out but he has more upside for this and he will be ridden more positively with Michael Rodd in the saddle. The Tony Gollan-trained horse does have concerns about Doomben, having only placed five times from 10 starts without winning a race. He hasn’t finished worse than second in his last four starts which has included three Group One’s. That form will stack up here and he is at a nice each way price of $6 after opening at $6.50.
Hot Snitzel returned to his best form at Randwick with a win in the Group Three Hall Mark Stakes and that was a tough field to beat. The seven-time winner for Gerald Ryan hasn’t been the easiest horse to train but when he has his mind on the job he is a very good horse. The five-year-old has won five times over the sprint distance and he can win on any surface.
Selection: Buffering to win ($2) at Sportingbet.com.au
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