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Brisbane vs New Zealand NRL Round 12 Betting

Sat, Jun 1, 11:35am by Rob Sheeley

Match: Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors – NRL Round 12
When/Where: 7:00pm, Monday 3rd June at Suncorp Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com

Brisbane Broncos vs. New Zealand Warriors Round 12Despite their abysmal record on the road, the Warriors must be licking their chops at the prospect of taking on the Brisbane Broncos minus their State of Origin stars. It evens a contest like this right up and may make for some entertaining rugby league.

The Broncos were outgunned by an ever improving Bulldogs side last Friday night. It was a loss that the $21 premiership hopes could ill afford approaching this period of the year. That loss makes this match even more of a danger game for them in terms of their position on the ladder. The Brisbane side are sitting one win outside the top eight in ninth place so they have plenty to play for.

The Warriors showed again last Sunday that they have super powers when they play at home compared to away. The fourteenth placed New Zealanders unleashed a second half try scoring spree to overhaul the Newcastle Knights by sixteen points (28-12). The Warriors may be $151 to win the competition but have the added advantage of being one of the sides least effected by State of Origin in the NRL.

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  • These teams have met 32 times, the Broncos have won 20, Warriors 12.
  • The Broncos have won 3 of their last 4 against the Warriors.
  • The Broncos have lost 5 of their last 7 at Suncorp Stadium.
  • The Warriors have lost 5 of their last 6 at Suncorp Stadium.

Brisbane Broncos Team & Form – WLLWL

For the Broncos, Josh Hoffman moves from the wing to take Justin Hodges’ place in the centres, with Denan Kemp the new winger. Scott Prince returns at five-eighth, with Ben Hunt dropping to the bench. Lock Dunamis Lui and second-rower Nick Slyney come in for Corey Parker and Matt Gillett, and Scott Anderson is up from the bench to start in place of Sam Thaiday. Mitchell Dodds and Aaron Whitchurch are added to what is a six-man bench.

1. Corey Norman
2. Denan Kemp
3. Josh Hoffman
4. Jordan Kahu
5. Lachlan Maranta
6. Scott Prince
7. Peter Wallace
8. Josh McGuire
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Scott Anderson
11. Alex Glenn
12. Nick Slyney
13. Dunamis Lui

Interchange

14. Ben Hunt
15. Mitchell Dodds
16. David Hala
17. Jarrod Wallace
18. Jake Granville
19. Aaron Whitchurch

Brisbane Broncos Round 12The Broncos have only won one of their last four and appear to lack consistency. What’s worse for punters is that this week there is another major variable that needs to be considered before investing on them in betting markets. Last week’s loss to the Bulldogs looked a game they could have won but they failed to execute on many critical occasions.

The Brisbane Broncos lose three key forwards and a centre for this match, all to representative duties. That is not an easy void to fill. In the bulk of their losses this year the Broncos have managed to stay reasonably close to their opposition, usually within ten points. Definitely a nice ace to keep up your sleeve if investing in margin or line betting markets.

New Zealand Warriors Team & Form – LWLLW

Konrad Hurrell returns to the centres for Carlos Tuimavave in the Warriors’ side. Dominique Peyroux is added to what is a five-man bench.

1. Kevin Locke
2. Glen Fisiiahi
3. Dane Nielsen
4. Konrad Hurrell
5. Manu Vatuvei
6. Thomas Leuluai
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Sam Rapira
9. Nanthan Friend
10. Russell Packer
11. Feleti Mateo
12. Simon Mannering (c)
13. Elijah Taylor

Interchange

14. Ben Matulino
15. Jacob Lillyman
16. Sebastine Ikahihifo
17. Pita Godinet
18. Dominique Peyroux

New Zealand Warriors Round 12The Warriors climbed off the bottom of the ladder last week with a fourteen point win over the Knights. It was another example of how they are a great team to bet on when they play at home.

They have managed to beat most teams there this season and were close against quality teams like South Sydney where they easily covered the spread in line betting markets. This weekend they are away but have the liberty of very few team changes compared to their opponents here.

They have managed to beat most teams there this season and were close against quality teams like South Sydney where they easily covered the spread in line betting markets. This weekend they are away but have the liberty of very few team changes compared to their opponents here.

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction

The Broncos form has been more than just a little questionable over the last month. On face value their chances of being a betting proposition in this game have taken a further hit with so many quality players missing. The telling factor lies with how they perform. Many times we see relatively unknown quantities come into the top grade and play well, it is imperative for the Broncos that it happens here.

With the Warriors at pretty much full strength they have a distinct edge in the combination they have forged together so far this season. It makes them look a very attractive betting proposition in both head to head and margin markets.

Given the Broncos poor form that may be compounded by their decimated squad, I find myself committing what is virtually a cardinal sin in tipsters terms and backing the Warriors away from home. I’ve done it one other time in 2013 and got burnt but they have everything (bar the home ground) in their favour here. On top of that, they look to represent massive value in most betting markets.

Warriors by 8

Broncos vs Warriors Head to Head Odds & Betting Tip

Broncos – $1.92
Warriors – $1.92 with IASbet.com

When you think a team will win by eight points and the market shows the game as dead set even, there’s always going to be value. This is when experienced bettors bet, when they spot what they perceive as value. I think the Warriors are superb value H2H at $1.92 with IASbet.com

Margin Bets

Broncos 1-12 – $3.30
Broncos 13+ – $4.20
Warriors 1-12 – $3.20 with IASbet.com
Warriors 13+ – $3.75

The Warriors again present us with some nice value in the 1-12 vicinity. $3.20 is very acceptable and worth a bet.

Line Betting & First Try Scorer

Broncos +1 – $1.86
Warriors -1 – $1.97 with IASbet

When the head to head price reflects what are normally the line or spread prices, bookmakers need to create a new line. In this case they have given the Broncos a one point advantage with the market then slightly favoring the Broncos. Given that my prediction has the Warriors easily covering that, this presents more value for us with the Warriors at $1.97.

First Try Scorer

When probing for a first try scorer it is always hard to go past the big unit Manu Vatuvei who is currently at $9 with IASbet.com, Glen Fisiiahi also represents value at $12.


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