Wed, Nov 27, 9:51am by Daryl Curnow
What: Sydney Races at Canterbury
Where: Canterbury, New South Wales, Australia
When: Wednesday, November 27. First race starts at 1:20pm.
Bet with: IASbet.com.au and get a $100 first bet bonus
AS we often see on a Wednesday in Sydney, there are quality fields on display with good stake money. Sydney’s best jockeys often find their next ‘big ride’ during the week, hence the popularity of the Wednesday meetings.
A handy field of nine runners contests this sprint with Chris Waller training just under half the field. The best of Waller’s chances is Free Happy, who ran last on debut but is well backed in the market at $6.50. The Elvstroem gelding – out of a mare by Zabeel – was heavily backed to run well at Warwick Farm but after sitting close to the pace he couldn’t find a sprint. The track was rated slow which could be a factor so if he gets a dry track, he should improve significantly.
Another Waller runner could be worth following this summer and next autumn, but could find this distance a touch too short. Best Shot ran sixth on debut at Caulfield in a tough two-year-old event, but the way he finished off the race suggests the further he goes, the better he’ll get. He’s by High Chaparral and out of a top quality New Zealand mare so his pedigree isn’t lacking. He’s at $11 so the market suggests waiting for another day, but he’ll be running on and is one to follow.
David Payne saddles up the favourite, Amaliehaven. The glaring positive for this three-year-old filly is that she will carry only 52.5kg after Serg Lisnyy takes 3kg off her back with his apprentice claim. This is a significant weight difference and it’s no wonder the books have her as a $4.60 favourite. Her form is mixed with two disappointing runs and one good run. She was only average on debut at Kembla Grange before running third to Flying Sebring second up. Not a lot went right for the More Than Ready filly at her last start but she’s recently won two trials at Rosehill so expect a forward run.
Recommended bet: We can’t look past the significant weight advantage Amaliehaven receives here. Amaliehaven to win ($4.60) at IASbet.com
This race features a horse we previewed last week only for it to be scratched. The Greg Bennett-trained Limitation is a horse on the rise and is subsequently our bet of the day at $2.40. The Show a Heart mare started her career with three straight wins before taking on listed company at Scone where she unfortunately came fifth after bleeding. She sat out her compulsory three months on the sidelines and resumed with a solid second placing at Randwick earlier this month. She’s won second-up and she’s carrying only 54kg which puts her in a great position. She has a good draw and a good senior jockey aboard and we’re expecting a top run today.
Number One Gun is a good sprinter and James McDonald is a key booking. The John O’Shea gelding has put in solid efforts in good company this year without winning but if he gets a rain affected track, his chances increase greatly.
Recommended bet: Limitation to win ($2.40) with IASbet.com.au
A hot field contests this race for three-year-olds with the Gai Waterhouse runner Lucand Star taking most of the early money. The Lonhro filly opened at $4.60 but has since moved into $3.70 after constant support since the markets were released yesterday afternoon. She won well on debut at Kembla Grange when paying only $1.90 but this race is a much tougher affair. There were only five runners that day and she’s drawn barrier 10 for this assignment. Like almost all of Gai Waterhouse’s runners, she’ll likely be forced to try and lead from the outside gate and hold on in the straight. One positive about her debut run was the time of 56.81 for the 1000 metre trip, which is quick in no uncertain terms but she had all favours in that run.
Repartee is the runner we have our eye on after a very solid two-year-old campaign. The Peter Moody-trained filly won on debut at Ballarat before flying to Sydney and running second behind both Northern Glory and Watabout in two quality juvenile races. All three runs were on heavy tracks and we believe she’ll be better suited to firmer ground as her breeding suggests. She’s by Northern Meteor who breeds predominantly slick sprinters on firm conditions so this race should kick her three-year-old season off in a positive way.
Truly Ready is a good chance for trainer John O’Shea after a solid run against tough opposition last time out at Warwick Farm. The filly is by More Than Ready and she won well on debut after being well backed in the market. She then narrowly missed scoring another win at Gosford before being ridden cold at her last start. James McDonald is the key booking and he’ll likely put her in a more forward position from barrier 8.
Recommended bet: We’re willing to bypass the hot favourite at $1.90 and opt for Repartee to win ($4.40) at IASbet.com
A very even field lines up here but down the bottom of the page sits Il Mio Destino, who is also nominated for Race 3, but is much more suited to this event. If she starts here, she’s a very good chance and is currently paying a handy $2.05 for the place. She ran third behind the Darley runner Moderate, who won during the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington, before winning her last start at Warwick Farm. She didn’t beat any world beaters that day but she’s trialed well leading into this race and is worth a place bet.
The Tim Martin-trained Holy Delusions is the favourite after a solid third placing last time out. Thanks to Shane Arnold’s three kilogram claim, she’ll be carrying only 53.5kg which puts this mare right in the mix. She has inconsistent form but the bookies price of $3.50 suggests she’s a confident chance in the race.
Tweet is the interesting runner at $5 after racing in listed company her past three starts. She won her first listed race at Scone but was disappointing in the next two at Flemington and Moonee Valley. However, it’s her run five starts ago on this track that stands outs when she came second to champion three-year-old Zoustar. This is a massive drop in class and she should run well.
Recommended bet: Tweet to win ($5) at IASbet.com
There are a couple of good each way chances in his 1900 metre staying event with Chestnut Road and Sensing. Chestnut Road has won on three occasions from only 10 starts and he looks like a promising middle distance horse. He came second behind Zabeiro last time out when up in grade and his form prior was solid. He’s by Encosta de Lago so he has the breeding edge on most of this and he’s the favourite accordingly.
Sensing is drawn wide in barrier 11 but the Paul Messara-trained horse has got good form on the board. He’s won twice from six starts but now finds himself up in grade, which he might find testing. He’s bred well and he’s always well favoured on the tote so is a good each way chance.
We think the bookies have missed the Kris Lees-trained Masroora, who has been running some top races behind good staying types recently. The four-year-old mare has started this campaign with three runs all short of her best distance and she did very well. She won fresh up over 1400 metres and came third last time out over 1550 metres. The step up to 1900 metres suits her perfectly as she ran under two lengths away from Instrumentalist over the longer distance, who has since won in premier Saturday races.
Recommended bet: Masroora to place ($3.10) at IASbet.com
There are only so many times you can do your dough on one horse, but Megathink will again be well backed and he should be too classy for this field. Should being the key word, the Cummings-trained gelding has looked a winner in his last five starts and is always running on, so perhaps the extra distance will play out perfectly. Hugh Bowman takes the ride and he’s had the most success on the son of Pendragon. Punters have again backed him in to a $3.50 favourite where he hasn’t budged since opening the market.
Abraham Lincoln is a former kiwi runner with Lisa Latta and is now at Bjorn Baker’s Warwick Farm stables. The O’Reilly gelding looked promising early on in New Zealand but didn’t show as much as his connections were expecting. With Baker, he ran a good second fresh up before disappointing at Randwick. It might pay to forgive his last start as he got bumped during the run and never quite recovered. He’s a classy animal and this distance will suit.
Recommended bet: Megathink/Abraham Lincoln quinella should pay around $8.
We’re only going to highlight one runner here and that’s the Chris Waller-trained Black Revolver. Cool name aside, this Lonhro gelding won very easily on debut after being last on the turn. He was held up in the straight but found room late and burst through for the 1.25 length win. He paid $1.80 that day and is currently at $3.30. There are doubts as to whether he will run from barrier 10, but if he fronts up he’s a great chance to remain unbeaten.
Recommended bet: Black Revolver to win ($3) with Iasbet.com
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