Thu, May 23, 7:43am by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Collingwood Magpies vs Sydney Swans
When/Where: 7:50pm Friday 24 May 2013 at the MCG
Recommended AFL Bookmaker: www.Centrebet.com
What a match this will be – Collingwood are coming off an upset victory against Geelong and the Swans drew with Fremantle. If anything, Collingwood were impressive and the Swans put in an indifferent performance and I think they were lucky to get away with the draw and not a loss. From last week’s win, Collingwood have lost a couple of their key players to bad injuries.
Collingwood are sitting in 8th spot on the premiership ladder and are third favourites to win the title, currently paying $9 to hoist the flag. Sydney are sitting in 4th spot and are paying $10 to repeat their achievements of 2012.
Dayne Beams, Alan Toovey, Alex Fasolo and Dale Thomas are big name Magpies facing long periods on the sidelines. Heath Shaw will be back after serving a one match suspension. Collingwood’s midfield is depleted but is getting some extra run through Harry O’Brien, Jamie Elliott and Sam Dwyer. The midfields should break even, so the Pies’ Travis Cloke shapes as the key figure in the game.
Last round, Sydney were leading by 27 points midway through the final quarter but the Dockers came home with a wet sail and gave the Sydney home crowd a scare. Sam Reid took a strong mark on the goal-line to spare the Swan’s a heartbreaking defeat. The Swans dominated possession throughout the game with Daniel Hannebery getting 27 touches and 4 goals. Kieran Jack had 33 touches and Jarrad McVeigh 28.
Sydney coach John Longmire has identified that the Swans cannot afford to drop their guard like they did against Fremantle. Longmire has stated that the Magpies would make the Swans pay for similar concentration lapses. The Swans were accurate in front of goal but not so accurate in kicking to targets in general play, with quite a few kicks finding the men in purple instead of those in red and white.
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Geelong gave the fast-starting Magpies a 28 point lead just before half-time but then led by 13 at three quarter time. But the Pies found something extra in the final quarter to wrestle back momentum and win by six points. Collingwood performed before a huge crowd of 66,000 people. It was a see sawing match that saw the lead change a few times.
It was a significant victory for Collingwood as they were taking on the competition leaders. The coach said “we had 22 contributors tonight, we really didn’t have a passenger, everyone was prepared to tip in”. Scott Pendlebury was great for the Pies, with 31 possessions and two goals while Sam Dwyer had 27 possession and Jamie Elliott and Andrew Krakouer kicked three each. Two of Krakouer’s came in the final key quarter of the match. Collingwood played a fast run and carry game and were dominating the clearance count early.
In Round 7, Sydney were overwhelmed by the Hawks forwards in the first half of the match. The Swans were competitive throughout the rest of the match, reducing the margin to 25 points with 10 minutes to go, but the Hawks were able to see off the challenge to become 37 point victors. It was an out of character performance for the Swans early in the match.
The loss was the Swans second of the season and Longmire believed his side is a long way off the best in the competition. The Sydney coach was disappointed with the way his players used the ball against the Hawks. In the same round, Collingwood were left disappointed after a diabolical start and an equally poor finish in their 27 point loss to Fremantle. Magpies fans watched in despair as the Dockers kicked 8 of the first 9 goals and then kicked the last 5 goals of the match. The only positive to be taken from the match was that the Pies did try to claw back a victory, hitting the front early in the final quarter.
In Round 6, the Swans thumped the Lions by 60 points. It was an easy victory against a poorly performing Brisbane side. Collingwood came away with a win by 26 points against St Kilda. The Magpies won the match in the final two quarters, kicking 5 goals in each. Collingwood dominated possession and defence and were extremely efficient with their disposals. Dale Thomas was a standout for the Magpies with 34 disposals and eight marks. Heath Shaw’s effort, with 22 touches, was also notable.
Sydney need to claim a big scalp whilst Collingwood will want to build on the momentum it gained with last week’s win against Geelong. Collingwood’s record against Sydney is impressive and I predict a Magpies victory. The Swans were lucky they didn’t lose last week and it isn’t likely they will be afforded the same luck against Collingwood.
In the head to head market, Collingwood are the favourites at $1.56 with Centrebet.com and Sydney are paying $2.45. In the line betting, Collingwood (-9.5) and Sydney (+9.5) is paying $1.91.
The margin of 1-20 has Collingwood at $3.50 and Sydney at $4.25. Collingwood are even shorter to win by 20+, paying $2.50.
In the tribet, the result for Collingwood to win by 16+ is paying $2.20 and the margin of 25-36 in favour of Collingwood is $6.50.
I think it’s worth having a small investment on Collingwood on the line bet at $1.91. If you are feeling more adventurous and think Collingwood can put a few goals on Sydney, then consider placing a bet on Collingwood to win by 16+ at $2.20.
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