Sat, May 11, 3:33am by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns – AFL Round 7
When/Where: 4:40pm Sunday, 12 May 2013 at MCG
AG Recommended AFL Betting Site: www.Bet365.com
The Suns head to the spiritual home of Australian Rules to take on the Demons in a Mother’s Day clash.
Melbourne have been hit hard by injuries. They have lost their co-captains Jack Grimes and Jack Trengrove to injury. They are also missing other key players in Mark Jamar, Mitch Clark and Jack Watts. Meanwhile, the Suns will be seeking to add some poise that was non-existent in their last outing.
Both Melbourne and the Suns sit on the bottom half of the ladder (17th and 13th respectively). They are both rated $1001 chances with IASbet.com to win the Premiership.
Key stats for Melbourne Demons v Gold Coast Suns
The Demons have only won 1 match this year and that was in Round 4 against the ordinary Giants. They won that match by 41 points and only because they managed to snap off 12 goals in the final quarter. It was the highest scoring quarter in the club’s history. The match was not a spectacle skill wise; it was littered with basic skill errors and terrible mistakes. In all honesty, not much can be made of that win. In the same round, the Suns were beaten by a smart Port Adelaide side. The Power suffocated the Suns in close. It became evident in this game that the Suns were suffering from second quarter syndrome. In the first four weeks of the competition they were outscored in the second quarter by 20 goals to 3.
In Round 5 the Demons were beaten by 28 points by a lowly ranked Lions side. The Demons disposal rate was poor. The only positive that Melbourne could take from the game was that they were accurate in front of goal. The Suns had a victory in this round against the Giants. They slacked off in the third quarter but scored 8 goals in the final quarter to win by 44. It was noted in the match wrap up that the victory would have been by a greater margin if the kicking had been more accurate.
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Melbourne clearly struggled against Carlton in Round 6. They lacked composure and would have been embarrassed by their poor skill level. They will be keen to get some of their senior players back to try and bring the team back on an even keel and competing. Despite winning most of the statistical categories in their game against Fremantle last week, the Suns failed to trouble in their 45 point loss. They succumbed to the defensive pressure of the Dockers.
The obvious key for the Suns is the outstanding Gary Ablett. He is currently ranked the number one player in the competition. He has been a beacon of shining light for the Suns and is averaging 30 touches a game and kicking eight goals from midfield. If the Demons are to be any sort of chance they need to control Ablett’s impact.
The Suns have a stronger midfield than the Demons and it is this area that the game will be won.
Melbourne have also proven they give away too many points. They need to find a way to plug that hole in their game.
The Gold Coast are $1.77 favourites with Bet365.com for this match. Melbourne are at $2.10 to steal victory. Bet365 have set their line at 3.5 to return $1.92.
In the line betting, Melbourne are paying $2.65 to win by 1-39 whilst the Suns are at $2.45.
I like the tri bet with Bet365. They have Gold Coast at $2.50 to win by over 15.5 points. It is also worth having something on at $1.77 for the Suns to win outright.
If you buy into the Suns’ ‘second quarter’ syndrome you may want to have a bet on the Demons to win the second quarter at $1.97.
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