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EPL match of the round – Arsenal vs. Chelsea – stats, odds & tips

Thu, Dec 19, 2:39pm by Clarinda Campbell

Swansea v Liverpool EPL Week 4Match: Arsenal ($2.40) Draw ($3.30) Chelsea ($3) – EPL Week 17
When/Where: 7:00am (AEST), Tuesday 24 December 2013 at Emirates Stadium
Bet on Arsenal vs Chelsea:

ARSENAL has been fantastic so far this season, but a loss to Chelsea in the EPL’s match of the round will see them spend Christmas in second spot on the ladder.

Arsenal was brought back to the pack after its loss last week and the chasers are chasing in earnest. Chelsea is one of the teams with ambitions on top spot and will be doing its utmost to overcome Arsenal at Emirates Stadium. The betting markets have opened with Arsenal as the $2.40 favourites in head-to-head betting.

  • The sides have a long and close history in head-to-head matches. They have played each other 158 times with Arsenal winning 61, Chelsea winning 51 and 46 draws.
  • Chelsea has won seven of the last 10 EPL matches between the two sides including a win the last time the two sides met in January this year.
  • Each team averages two goals per game and concedes one goal per game.
  • Arsenal has only failed to score once this season.
  • Arsenal has not played a goalless draw at home this season, but Chelsea has had a goalless draw away.
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Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction

The home advantage for Arsenal against Chelsea is not all it is cracked up to be. Chelsea has lost just one of its last seven visits to Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal has the best defence in the EPL, so it was a shock to see Manchester City score six goals against it last week. Arsenal’s manager commented that Arsenal made too many technical mistakes against City and paid a expensive price. It was only Arsenal’s third loss but critics have hailed the loss as the start of Arsenal’s fall from the top of the ladder as many didn’t expect Arsenal to still be leading the competition.

Chelsea’s win against Crystal Palace was unconvincing and demonstrated that the side is still working towards more improvement as a team. Chelsea failed to kill off the game against Crystal Palace. It will need that missing killer instinct against Arsenal.

Arsenal’s home record is six wins from eight matches, with just one loss and one draw but it is suffering from the effects of a recent heavy schedule. The loss last week showed defensive vulnerability and a lack of depth in the squad, which is a concern going forward. However, Arsenal has the entire week to prepare for this match which may just give it the freshen it needs. Chelsea has won three matches and does need to improve to defeat Arsenal.

At the current stage both teams are at, the match will be quite a tussle. Arsenal heads the competition for a reason, it has been the most consistent team all year and it can bounce back from last week’s heavy loss. I predict a 2-1 win to Arsenal.

Head-to-head betting odds & free tips

Arsenal head-to-head: $2.40 with
Chelsea head-to-head: $3
Draw: $3.30

I have tipped Arsenal to win and it is the current favourite in head-to-head  betting and you can get better than even money on them in this market.

Handicap betting

Arsenal (-1): $4.50
Handicap Draw (-1): $4 with
Chelsea (+1): $1.53

With the predicted score of 2-1, the handicap draw looks the bet for this match which is currently paying $4.50. If you think Chelsea can draw the match then you should place a bet on them in this market. If you think Arsenal will be two or more goals ahead of Chelsea at full time, then place your bet on Arsenal.


Under 0.5 Goals: $10.70
Over 0.5 Goals: $1.03
Under 1.5 Goals: $3.80
Over 1.5 Goals: $1.25
Under 2.5 Goals: $1.96
Over 2.5 Goals: $1.78 with
Under 3.5 Goals: $1.35
Over 3.5 Goals: $3.03
Under 4.5 Goals: $1.13
Over 4.5 Goals: $5.40

I have predicted a total of three goals to be scored so the “over 2.5 goals” is the recommended option here. As you can see from the odds listed above there are other options available if you have a different view on the number of goals that will be scored.

Winning Margin

to win by exactly 1 goal: $4 with
to win by exactly 2 goals: $7
to win by exactly 3 goals: $15
to win by 4 or more goals: $31
0-0 Draw: $10
Score Draw: $4.20
to win by exactly 1 goal: $4:50
to win by exactly 2 goals: $9
to win by exactly 3 goals: $21
to win by 4 or more goals: $51

I have predicted Arsenal to win by exactly one goal which is $4 in the winning margin market. If you prefer another margin, then you can take advantage of the other options listed above.

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