Fri, Nov 1, 11:09am by Dominic Ciconte
Race: The Victoria Derby, Race 6, 2500m, Group 1, three-year-old handicap
When & Where: 1.30pm, November 2, 2013 @ The Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne
Wager With: Sportingbet.com.au and have your first bet of up to $200 matched.
THE Victoria Derby marks the beginning of Melbourne Cup Week. First run in 1855, the Derby is raced on a left-handed course at a distance of 2,500 metres. The total prize money for the race is $1,500,000 and a $10,000 trophy.
The winner of the 2012 Victoria Derby was Fiveandahalfstar, trained by Anthony Cummings with Australian champion jockey Damien Oliver on board.
Victoria Derby favourites Complacent and Savvy Nature have both drifted in the odds after drawing horror barriers for Saturday’s $1.5 million race.
Savvy Nature is now the new outright favourite, despite easing from $4.20 out to $4.60 since the barrier draw, with punters deserting former favourite Complacent.
Complacent has drawn barrier 16, while Savvy Nature drew barrier 13 in the field of 16 plus emergencies.
“Since drawing barrier 16 we haven’t taken a bet on Complacent, the punters have been quick to jump off, so we have pushed his price out from $4.20 to $5,” Sportingbet’s Michael Felgate said.
“The Sydney colts have been handed visitor draws and with only a very short run to the first turn from the 2500m start point they will most likely find themselves posted very wide early in the Derby,”
Pre-draw third favourite Criterion fared no better drawing barrier 14. His price has also eased from $8 out to $9.
“All three will either have to go forward early and risk spending some petrol or go back and settle towards the tail. Either option is not ideal so we are happy to risk them now,” Felgate said.
The big firmers in betting are Polanski, who has drawn to get the run of the race from barrier 1 and San Diego who also drew well in gate 6.
“We have brought Polanski into $7 from $8.5 and expect he will have plenty of support from that draw and San Diego into $7.5 from $9,” Felgate said.
“The Derby is usually won by the horse who gets the best run and settles well, Polanski and San Diego will get every chance to do that now.”
1. Criterion (14), D. Payne, C. Williams, 55.5kg
2. Complacent (16), P. Snowden, K.McEvoy, 55.5kg
3. Savvy Nature (13), J. McDonald, J. O’Shea, 55.5kg
4. Polanksi (1), J. Bowman, R. Laing, 55.5kg
5. Drago (18) D. Oliver, A. Cummings, 55.5kg
6. San Diego (6), S. Arnold, P. Snowden, 55.5kg
7. Honey Steel’s Gold (2), L.Nolen, D. Hayes, 55.5kg
8. Tips and Beers (11), B. Prebble, D. Hayes, 55.5kg
9. Epic Saga (17), C. Symons, M Ellerton & S Zahra, 55.5kg
10. Tupac Amaru (8), C.Newitt, P. Snowden, 55.5kg
11. Pinstripe Lane (3), N. Rawiller, D, Sadler, 55.5kg
12. Throw The King (5), T. Sadler, D. Sadler, 55.5kg
13. Thunder Fantasy (7), P. Robl, A. Cummings, 55.5kg
14. Surging Wave (15), N. Hall, D. Hayes, 55.5kg
15. Famechon (4), D. Dunn, M Morone, 55.5kg
16. Bring Something (12), G. Boss, K. Keys, 55.5kg
17. Cadillac Mountain (9), S. Stackhouse, P. Moody, 55kg
18. Empire Rock (10) D. Moor, D. Hayes, 55kg
1. Criterion, X0022, $9, $3.30
2. Complacent, 22111, $5, $2.10
3. Savvy Nature,31231, $4.60, $2
4. Polanski, X7811, $7, $2.10
5. Drago, 29375, $31, $8.80
6. San Diego, 1X362, $7.50, $2.50
7. Honey Steel’s Gold, 11304, $51, $12.20
8.Tips and Beers, 51114, $26, $8.20
9. Epic Saga, 52223, $26, $8.20
10. Tupac Amuru, X2192, $14, $4.80
11. Pinstripe Lane, 45143, $19, $5.90
12. Throw The King, 5X413, $71, $20
13. Thunder Fantasy, X1159, $51, $8.80
14. Surging Wave, X1457, $21, $5.90
15. Famechon, 32636, $21, $5.90
16. Bring Something, 4245 21, $5.90
17. Cadillac Mountain, 2419, $41, $12.20
18. Empire Rock, 0363 $151, $29.20
*A 0 in any previous race means the horse finished 10th or worse.
*A X means that the horse was spelled or scratched and did not run.
Bet with Sportingbet.com.au and have your first bet of up to $200 matched.
What many predicted would be a race dominated by the favourites has been thrown wide-open after an interesting barrier draw that has seen the main fancies drawn wide.
We really like Polanksi, trained by Robbie Laing. After drawing barrier one, it should get the run of the race and has been well set for the distance. It has jockey Hugh Bowman on board and at $7, still represents great value.
Criterion and Complacent will put in brave runs and the favourite Savvy Nature is hard to ignore, despite drawing wide. We like Epic Saga as an outsider, who is better than the odds of $26 suggest.
Winner: Polanksi @ $7
Trifecta: Polanksi, Savvy Nature, Criterion
Roughie: Epic Saga @ $26
Value for a place: Famechon @ $5.90
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