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Flemington Saturday October 6 – Preview, Odds and Best Bet

Thu, Oct 4, 12:51pm by Staff Writer

It’s Turnbull Stakes day at Flemington on Saturday where the rail is out 9m and the track in the good range.

Winx ($1.16) is the headline act of the day as she looks for back-to-back wins in the G1 Turnbull (2000m). Last year she was devastating in the Turnbull and many would suggest she is in better form this year. She’s joined by stable mate Youngster ($23) who is racing well this prep in open company after a Brisbane campaign which saw her win the G1 QLD Oaks (2200m).

Kings Will Dream ($12) is fourth-up here and while he won six straight and five-in-a-row last prep, arguably his three best career runs have been this campaign when fourth in the G1 PB Lawrence (1400m) – beaten 0.7L, third in a G1 Memsie (1400m) – beaten 0.2L, before a second in the G1 Makybe Diva (1600m) – beaten 2L. He was a 5L winner of the Listed Mornington Cup (2400m) which gave him an exemption for the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) and if he’s at his best, it would be interesting to see how close he can get to the great mare.

Grunt ($13) loves the Flemington track with two G1 mile victories here, his most recent in the Makybe Diva. His stable mate Mighty Boss ($71) is a G1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) winner himself – when starting 100-1 – but he hasn’t really fired a shot since.

Trap For Fools ($71) disappointed his followers last start when sent out a well-supported favourite, while Tally ($81) and Ventura Storm ($61) can improve here but are surely place chances at best.

Winner takes all in the Group 3 Bart Cummings

A field of 15 will line up in the G3 The Bart Cummings (2500m), with the winner gaining automatic entry into the G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).

Avilius ($2.20) is the short-price favourite for the race and he’s also got top weight of 58.5kg. He’s undefeated in his three runs in Australia and while he hasn’t won by big margins in each of those wins, it’s looked effortless on the line.

Yogi ($7.50) was disappointing at Morphettville last start but he’s been racing well leading into that and he can improve here. He was as much as 20-1 in early betting during the week so many think he can bounce back.

Midterm ($13) backs up after finishing fifth – beaten 1.8L – in last week’s G1 Metropolitan (2400m) and he’s joined by stable mates Harrison ($13) and Our Venice Beach ($7.50). Jameeh ($10) held out Hush Writer ($26) here at Flemington last start over 2500m and they both line up here, the latter joined by stable mate Northwest Passage ($31) who has won over 2500m but in much lesser grade. Rising Red ($12) has three wins and nine minors from his 16 starts and he was very good in the G3 Naturalism (2000m) when just being pipped on the line by Night’s Watch.

Suggested Bet: Backing maidens isn’t always the smartest thing to do but doing just that and going with Ranier ($3.40, race 2, number 4). The colt just missed when beaten in a photo at his first career start down the straight and this time in he’s run into Miss Fabulass, Reginae and Nakeeta Jane in maiden or benchmark grade. All those are better than that and so is he, so hopefully he can break his maiden tag here.

*See both the card’s full betting market here


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