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Group One Racing at Rosehill – betting guide with tips

Fri, Mar 28, 12:46pm by Daryl Curnow

rosehill22What: George Ryder Stakes/Rosehill Guineas


Where: Rosehill, Sydney


When: Saturday, March 29. First race starts at 12:15pm.

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*Track expected to be slow to heavy going, favouring wet track runners.

Race 1 – Ambassador Travel N E Manion Cup (2400m)

Opinion reveled in the wet conditions two starts back at Rosehill when defeating the very talented Carlton House and this races favourite Junoob by 2.75 lengths. The Chris Waller-trained import was a game second last time out but still five lengths from Junoob, however conditions weren’t to suit. The five-year-old steps up in distance which will suit him and he is a great chance with a light weight of only 55.5kg.

Another Chris Waller-trained runner is the $2.50 favourite in Junoob, a last start five-length winner at Randwick. The six-year-old has great stats on a good track but his performance two starts back in the wet is concerning here. He rises in weight by 2.5kg from his last win and that could make all the difference. In saying that, he looks to have a good staying future in Australia.

The Gai Waterhouse-trained The Offer has had three starts on a heavy track for two wins and one placing. The well-bred son of Montjeu ran a solid third behind Junoob at Randwick and he is another who will appreciate the rise in distance. Tommy Berry will be looking to get off to a good start after a tough week so expect a fighting effort from both horse and jockey.

Recommended bet: Opinion to win ($2.80) at Sportingbet.com.au

Race 2 – Bowermans Office Furniture Pago Pago Stakes (1200m)

Mr Cha Cha has looked good in three career starts to date with the latest a second placing in the Black Opal behind Lucky Raquie. The slick Gai Waterhouse-trained colt won easily on debut at Wyong before taking on listed company at Rosehill where he finished second behind Fighting Sun. He has drawn slightly wide in barrier eight which is a concern but he is carrying a nice weight and Berry rides.

Modoc could be the forgotten horse at $10 after the two-year-old ran on well for third in the Skyline Stakes. The Haradasun gelding was unlucky when running sixth in the Silver Slipper behind Golden Slipper second favourite Mossfun, so it will pay to overlook that run and go on his previous form. He was second in the Inglis 2YO and he hasn’t done anything to warrant his long shot price.

Peter Snowden has a great record in two-year-old events and he lines up Kumaon who is coming off a last start third. The Lonhro colt won on debut at Rosehill in a tough event where he defeated Cyclone – who finished third in a good race last weekend. He has had a trial to prepare for this and Kerrin McEvoy rides with a good weight. Both career starts have come on this track and that will aid the youngster here.

Recommended bet: Modoc to place ($2.90) at IASbet.com

Race 3 – Hyland Race Colours Birthday Card Stakes (1200m)

It took a good horse to beat the current favourite Lilliburlero last time out at Randwick and the four-year-old looks a nice chance here. The David Payne-trained mare won her start prior at Randwick in Group Three level and she has won twice and placed once on this track. The only deterrent to her form is that she hasn’t won or placed in two starts on a slow track but class could take her a long way here.

Shahad finally got a win on the board at Canterbury after a string of listed and group race failures. The Gai Waterhouse-trained filly has been put in the deep end early in her career to which she could’t quite keep up, but back in the lower grades she proved too strong last time out. This is another step up, however, but if she gets a nice run in transit her weight of only 54kg could see her right in the mix.

Avoid Lightning comes into calculations on the back of her wet track form where she has won twice on a slow track. The Les Bridge-trained mare has won on six occasions from only 17 starts and her last up effort was extremely unlucky. She finished fifth behind A Time For Julia and she never saw daylight in the straight. To finish only 1.5 lengths from the winner was impressive and despite her poor form over the distance she was a blackbooker last time out.

Recommended bet: Lilliburlero to win ($4.60) at Sportingbet.com.au

Race 4 – IRT Magic Night Stakes (1200m)

Veloce Forte is the $5.50 favourite following a debut win at Kembla Grange. The two-year-old filly is the favourite because of her breeding, which suggests she will handle the conditions. The High Chaparral filly out of a Zabeel-bred mare won by 1.5 lengths and she is in an astute stable with a top jockey aboard. She has drawn very wide in barrier 14 so early tactics will likely decide her chances.

Peggy Jean hasn’t done anything wrong in three career starts which included a win in the Inglis Classic at Randwick. The Gerald Ryan-trained filly last raced on this track when finishing third after laying in throughout the trip. Myboycharlies’ have handled wet conditions in the past and she could be a force in this.

Lady Sharapova ran well for third on debut at Flemington and her trainers are confident about her chances in this. The Hawkes’-trained filly by Fastnet Rock finished only 2.5 lengths from the winner and she was doing good work late in the run. The extra 100 metres will suit her and she looks a good chance with Damien Oliver in the saddle.

Recommended bet: Peggy Jean to win ($7) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 5 – Randwick Equine Centre Darby Munro Stakes (1200m)

Calming Influence is coming off the back of a four-month spell and her statistics when racing fresh are good. The Chris Waller-trained filly has won and placed from two starts when fresh and she has had a trial to prepare for this. The three-year-old by Commands has won both starts on this track and she has placed on a heavy track. She ended last season by winning back-to-back races and she is up to stakes level.

Sidestep is only a one-win colt but his second at Randwick last time out suggests that he is finding his best form once again. The Peter Snowden-trained colt will have to carry the top-weight but he has form in behind the likes of Zoustar and Buffering. This field is much easier than those assignments and if he can repeat his most recent effort he will go close.

Cosmic Endeavour was disappointing when well backed at Randwick but the Gai Waterhouse filly has won on a slow track. The three-year-old filly won her previous start in good fashion by 2.25 lengths and she is currently paying a nice price of $9 after opening at $8.50. She won her only start at Rosehill and if she can turn her last start form around she is good value.

Recommended bet: Calming Influence to win ($5) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 6 – $405,000 Bloodstock.com.au Galaxy (1100m)

With the scratching of pre-race favourite Snitzerland, this race is now wide open and we think Rain Affair is a good chance to return to form. The Joseph Pride-gelding is only a mere shadow of his previous self but his last win came on a slow track back in August last year and he will strike the same conditions here. The Commands gelding is a perfect five from five on a slow track with another two wins on a heavy. He loves the distance with five wins from sevens starts and also Rosehill where he has won on four occasions. He opened at $11 and has since been bet into $7.

Villa Verde looked smart when winning the Group Two Challenge Stakes at Randwick but she has drawn wide in barrier 14 for this. The Anthony Cummings-trained filly returned to form stylishly when beating Snitzerland and the gear change was an obvious help. Race tactics will be key to her chances and she might have to drop back and finish on strongly. She is the current $6 favourite, firming in slightly from $6.50.

Sessions hasn’t really come of age since getting his career off to a fine start but his fresh up run was good behind Villa Verde. The Peter Snowden-trained four-year-old last won The Shorts at Randwick in September last year and he could well be returning to that form. He has won once when second-up and twice at the course so his $7.50 quote represents value.

Recommended bet: Rain Affair to win ($7) at Sportingbet.com.au

Race 7 – $1,005,000 George Ryder Stakes (1500m)

Red Tracer is the firming favourite in this Group One event and her stats simply stand out. The six-year-old has won three from four on a soft track and five from six on a heavy track. She is an outstanding mare in any ground but when the rain comes she excels to another level. The Chris Waller-trained mare opened at $3.70 but once the rain came she has since firmed into $3 and that price will only drop. Her run for third last time out after stumbling badly at the start was cracking and she is a deserving favourite here.

Sacred Falls is however our value bet of the day at $8 following a great run for fourth in the unsuited Canterbury Stakes at Randwick. The O’Reilly four-year-old has won twice when second up and he now gets out to a much more preferred distance. The Doncaster Mile winner has plenty of heart and he was won both starts on a rain affected track.

Boban, despite drifting from $4 to $7.50 is worth a mention on class alone. Another from the Chris Waller barn, the four-year-old was good when winning the Chipping Norton Stakes last time out but he hasn’t shown any form in two starts on rain affected going. That will be his only downfall in this but if he can cope with the conditions he is a great place chance.

Recommended bet: Sacred Falls to place ($2.50) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 8 – $505,000 Tab.com.au Rosehill Guineas (2000m)

The Peter Moody-trained Dissident comes into this race on the back of two straight wins, including a win in the Randwick Guineas last time out. The three-year-old colt fought on strongly along the inside and that looked like a great guide for this. He has won and placed in the slow going and he looks as though the distance won’t worry him. He opened at $5 but has drifted out slightly to $5.50.

Puccini is the boom horse from New Zealand who is untried on a wet track but there is no denying his class. The Peter and Jacob McKay-trained colt was simply outstanding in the New Zealand Derby and he is bred to be a superstar. He has already won at this distance and Michael Walker has experience riding in Australia, it’s just the conditions that will stop him and if he can handle them, watch out!

Teronado is a gelding who has been crying out for more distance and he finally gets it here. The Bruce Hill-trained runner finished strongly in the Randwick Guineas and the extra 400 metres is right up his alley. He has won on a slow track and placed on a heavy so the conditions won’t bother him at all.

Recommended bet: Puccini to win ($5) at Sportsbet.com.au


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