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Group One Randwick Guineas Day preview with free tips

Fri, Mar 14, 6:17pm by Daryl Curnow

Royal-RandwickWhat: Randwick Guineas/Canterbury Stakes Day.


Where: Randwick, Sydney


When: Saturday, March 15. First race starts at 1:17pm.


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Race 1 – Hyland Race Colours Skyline Stakes (1200m)

Giuliani is only having his second start at he races but his debut effort when second behind Unencumbered is fantastic form for this. The Gai Waterhouse-trained two-year-old didn’t get all favours on debut as he was slow to begin then ridden hard three-wide around the turn. He was then bumped and hampered yet still ran a very good horse to .5 of a length and he has rightly been installed as the $3.30 favourite at Sportsbet (better than the $3.20 offered at our other suggested bookmakers).

Gold Force has winning experience after the two-year-old won on debut at Mornington by 2.75 lengths. The Hawkes-trained gelding was well fancied when running at $4.60 on that occasion and he never looked in doubt with Craig Williams aboard. Due to his suspension, James McDonald takes the ride and from the good barrier of three, he should be put into a winning position the turn and he could kick away from them here. Since opening as the favourite at $3.50 he has since been let out to $3.75 where he holds firm second favouritism.

Gai Waterhouse trains Valentina who was an impressive winner at Randwick last time out. The Fastnet Rock colt was only fair when running third but 6.8 lengths from Rubick, but he was well supported second up and he has been well specked in the betting for this. He opened at $4.50 and has been bet into $4.20 so there is confidence around the camp.

Recommended bet: Giuliani to win ($3.30) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 2 – Les Johnson Memorial Sweet Embrace Stakes (1200m)

The Gai Waterhouse-trained Twirl has been steadily backed since opening as the $2.75 favourite. The Lonhro filly has come into $2.30 in a betting plunge reminiscent of her last run at Rosehill where she started as a $2.10 favourite. She finished third behind the unbeaten Mossfun but she did fight on solidly and her debut run behind Rubick wasn’t all too bad either. She has drawn wide in barrier eight but jockey Nash Rawiller will likely go forward and she will be tough to beat from there.

Press Report has the blinking light on last start when finishing strongly for second behind Mossfun. The Lee Curtis-trained filly was also second on debut behind the talented Peter Snowden two-year-old Memorial at Rosehill and she probably won’t start as long as $51 again. The daughter of Written Tycoon opened at a generous $10 but the punters caught on and she is now hovering around the $7 mark. She is currently $1.85 for the place which looks the more viable bet as there are a few promising types in this.

Tetsuko finished only 0.2 lengths from Alpha Miss on debut and she has since gone on to win three from four including a top quality race last weekend. Tetsuko then raced at the Kensington track where the two-year-old filly won by half a length in a maiden affair. The Gerald Ryan-trained runner makes the step up to stakes company and that could test her but she hasn’t shown anything to deter punters.

Recommended bet: Twirl to win ($2.30) at Centrebet.com

Race 3 – Feeney’s Irish Cream Randwick City Stakes (2000m)

Opinion scored at $27 to win as tipped by Australiangambling last time out at Rosehill and now the Chris Waller-trained import is paying only $2.35 after opening at $2.60. The five-year-old took it’s time to break his Australian maiden status but he did it in style, winning by 2.75 lengths over Carlton House who won last Wednesday. He reveled in the mud and if he gets similar track conditions his chances soar, but either way he is a strong chance and he could go on with it now.

Junoob was no match for Opinion last time out but the six-year-old is better on good ground and he did finish strongly down the outside. Another trained by Chris Waller, the gelding is to be ridden by James McDonald once again and he’ll only have to carry 54kg. He has placed in both starts at Randwick but he has won on three occasions at the distance and a top run is to be expected.

Vaquera has forever been a ‘gunner ‘ horse in which it always shows enough to warrant inclusion at her next start, but she never quite produces anything special. The Gai Waterhouse-trained mare hasn’t won for some time but she did ran home well last time out and the extra distance will suit where she has placed on two occasions. It’s getting to the point where she needs to put in a big effort and it could be here, therefore the $9 on offer at Sportsbet (other books are offering $8) doesn’t seem so bad.

Recommended bet: Vaquera to win ($9) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 4 – The Irish Echo Aspiration Quality (1600m)

Lucky Lago ran well for third in a group two event at Rosehill last time out and the John O’Shea-trained mare looks primed for a good performance here. The daughter of Encosta De Lago won four starts back when beating the talented Queenstown at Warwick Farm and this field doesn’t look overly testing despite the good stake money on offer. The four-year-old has only had 10 starts for three wins and three placings and she looks like a progressive type, well within a chance to win here at $3.80.

The three-year-old filly Forever Loved has been positively backed in from $5.50 to $4.60, likely on the back of a very good win in a rating 74 grade race when beating All Cerise by 1.75 lengths. The Gai Waterhouse-trained daughter of High Chaparral has had only five career starts for two wins and a placing, with her other win coming on debut at Canterbury. It looks as though the extra distance will suit her and James McDonald rides at a lovely weight of 54.5kg.

Down the very bottom of the page lurks Mahara who has won three of her last four races. Glen Boss takes over the ride and his experience will give the Guy Walter-trained mare a chance to place here. She does look a little outclassed but her opening quote of $15 has been sliced into $8.50 and she has won half of her six career starts.

Recommended bet: Forever Loved to win ($4.60) at IASbet.com

Race 5 – $401,700 Challenge Stakes (1000m)

The slick sprinters will go hammer and tong in this with two horses dominating the market. Buffering is fresh up for Robert Heathcote where the six-year-old has won on six occasions from eight starts when fresh. The Mossman gelding ended his last campaign with three straight group one’s including the Manikato Stakes where he defeated the Hong Kong galloper Lucky Nine. He has had two starts at Randwick for a win and a placing and he holds favouritism at $3 after opening at $3.80.

Snitzerland has been drifting in the market since being made the early $2.30 favourite. The Gerald Ryan-trained mare is now paying $3.20 and she doesn’t seem to have any support after winning the Group One Lightning Stakes last time out. The impressive daughter of Snitzel is having her first start at Randwick but she has class written all over her and she has won eight from 17 starts. She does however have the knack of putting in the odd bad run and because there is no tote support we will leave her alone for the meantime.

Sessions has come in a point to $5 after opening at $6 and the Peter Snowden-trained four-year-old loves racing fresh. The son of Lonhro has won on three occasions from four starts when fresh and he prefers racing right handed, as opposed to left where he has done his most recent racing for little success. His last run at Randwick was when winning a group two event, beating the highly touted Aeronautical and his chances to cause a minor boil over look bright here.

Recommended bet: Buffering to win ($3) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 6 – Roy Higgins Tribute Quality (1200m)

This looks like the perfect chance for A Time For Julia to notch a win in Sydney after a very solid second placing behind Red Tracer. Peter Moody has a massive opinion of the four-year-old who won at Caulfield two starts back and has looked above average in all three career wins. She has drawn an outside barrier in 11 but she is an adaptable mare who can race handy or get back in the field. She opened at $4.80 and got as low as $3.30 but she has since settled at $3.80.

Lilliburlero was a good winner last time out on this track in the Group Three Triscay Stakes. The David Payne-trained mare is lightly raced, having won four of her 12 career starts and she has won second-up on two occasions prior. She does rise in weight from her last start win but Nash Rawiller takes the ride and he has won on her in the past at Rosehill. She opened at $3.80 but has drifted slightly out to $4.20.

Recoinage finished a close second behind Lilliburlero at Randwick and she’s looking like a nice outsider threat at $12. The Joseph Pride-trained mare won two starts back on this course in a lower graded race and with a good tempo up front she can run over the top of them late. This field has more depth than those she has faced in recent times, hence the price, but she isn’t without a place chance.

Recommended bet: A Time For Julia to win ($3.80) at Sportingbet.com.au

Race 7 – $605,000 Royal Randwick Guineas (1600m)

Feature race:

In a cracking field, El Roca is the early $4 favourite following a game second placing behind Terravista at Warwick Farm. The New Zealand trained colt by Fastnet Rock has won and placed since arriving in Australia and he looks to have any amount of ability. He defeated race rival Dissident by two lengths at Rosehill two starts back in very easy fashion and if he can find a decent spot in the field from barrier 14 he’s a real live chance.

Fellow kiwi runner Atlante will be looking to go one better than his Australian debut where he finished second to Dissident in unsuited slow conditions at Rosehill. The Murray Baker-trained colt by Fastnet Rock has had six starts for three wins including the New Zealand 1000 Guineas. The most positive aspect surrounding his colt is his favourable barrier draw of five where he will be able to find any position in the field he likes. Glyn Schofield continues his association with the colt and he opened at $5.50 and that’s exactly where he has stayed throughout the market.

Bull Point was very disappointing when second up at Caulfield in the Group One Futurity Stakes where he raced as the $2.35 favourite. That was following a 1.25-length win at Caulfield where the Gai Waterhouse-trained runner put on a galloping display. His run for third in the Group One Golden Rose was very eye catching and if the son of Fastnet Rock can sit off the pace, he has more than enough turn of foot to stomp over the top of them late.

Recommended bet: Atlante to win ($5.50) at Sportingbet.com.au

Race 8 – Guinness Canterbury Stakes (1300m)

Feature race:

Champion colt Zoustar makes his return to the track following a campaign that included wins in the Group One Golden Rose and the Group One Coolmore Stud Stakes. The Chris Waller-trained son of Northern Meteor defeated the current second favourite Not listenin’tome by two lengths on that occasion but there are some concerns as to how he will run fresh. Chris Waller said that he wasn’t fully 100% but he only puts that down to him being a touch fresh and despite this a big campaign is in store. He has suffered the blows in the market because of this, moving from $2.50 to $3.50.

Not Listenin’tome was super impressive when winning the Group Three Zeditave at Caulfield by a massive four lengths however this field is a big step up from that. The Hawkes-trained gelding hasn’t finished worse than second in all five career runs and he finished only two lengths back of Zoustar in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. The difference is that the son of Dylan Thomas has a run under his belt and that could be the deciding factor. The minor step up to 1300 metres shouldn’t pose any problems and he looks like a real live chance at $3.90 after opening at $4.50.

Red Tracer has been the early punters elect after winning three straight including the Group One Myer Classic at Flemington last campaign. The Chris Waller-trained mare is a tough horse who deserves all the success she gets and her record at Randwick stands solid with three wins and two placings from six starts. Her chances will increase even more if there is any amount of rain around but even if it’s dry, her chances appear bright at $4.20 after opening at a handy $5.

Recommended bet: Not Listenin’tome to win ($3.90) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 9 – Xirrus Fireball Stakes (1100m)

The final event of the day sees the Gai Waterhouse-trained Cosmic Endeavour come up as the $3.50 favourite after opening at $4.50. The three-year-old filly won on debut at Canterbury by 3.25 lengths and then she ran three consecutive fourths in listed and group company. The Northern Meteor filly was fresh up a fortnight ago where she ran away a very comfortable winner at Rosehill by 2.25 lengths. She looks to be above average and the punters think so too.

At good money is the Cummings-trained Shamalia who didn’t get everything go her way last time out at Caulfield. The daughter of Shamardal sped to the lead and got swamped in the final 100 metres, finishing fifth but only three lengths behind the winner Spirits Dance. Her first two wins in Sydney were very easy and her price of $12 is great value. This will be a tough race to win but the drop back in distance will suit her running style nicely.

Open Book has the wide barrier draw of 13 to contend with here but the Darren Smith-trained gelding has plenty of upside. The three-year-old is fresh up after five months off the track where he last ran third behind Zoustar in the Group Two Roman Consul at Randwick. This is a tough race to win in a fresh state and he could get run off his feet but if he is ready to go the $5.50 may look like silly money after the race.

Recommended bet: Cosmic Endeavour to win ($3.50) at Centrebet.com


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