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IT’S BACK! – AFL Round 1 betting preview (split round)

Fri, Mar 14, 1:48pm by Brad McGrath

AFL BettingFOOTY’S back and the staff at AustralianGambling couldn’t be happier. We’re ready to back a few winners and hopefully you’ll join us for the ride.

We sound like a broken record, but we can’t stress enough that it’s very important to have multiple online bookmaker accounts to make the most of your betting experience. The start of the AFL season has seen the bookies offer some outstanding deals which we have listed here.

AustralianGambling has cast judgement on each of the four games this weekend and offered some betting advice ahead of the 2014 season.

Collingwood ($2.35) vs. Fremantle ($1.62)

Aaron Sandilands

Fremantle giant Aaron Sandilands.

Where: Etihad Stadium,

When: Friday, 7.50pm Local time

Television: Channel 7 and Fox Sports, 7.30pm

It’s been a mixed preseason for Fremantle but master-coach Ross Lyon will have the purple haze ready for this clash against the biggest team in the country. The Dockers surprisingly named prized recruit Colin Sylvia as an emergency for the clash, while the Magpies will be missing gun swingman Ben Reid and Sydney recruit Jesse White through injury. The Pies have included GWS recruit Taylor Adams, Tom Langdon and Irishman Marty Clarke. The Dockers will start this game favourite and look to have too much depth for the Pies.

Our best bets: Both teams have a defensive mindset and the chances of them scoring above 172.5 between them seem slim, this is paying $1.88 with Sportsbet and $1.90 with Centrebet.

The Dockers are last season’s grand finalist and they are playing a team which bowed out of the finals in week one and have lost stars Dale Thomas and Heath Shaw. Back the Dockers to beat the Pies by more than 13.5 points with Centrebet at $2.10.

Prediction: Fremantle by 23 points.

GWS ($12) vs. Sydney Swans ($1.04)

Where: Spotless Stadium

When: Saturday, 4.40pm

Television: Fox Footy, 4.30pm

The big question this match poses is where is Spotless Stadium? All jokes aside, this should give an instant indication on just how much GWS has improved with a clash against its cross-town rival and premiership fancy. The Giants have added former Collingwood star Heath Shaw and Swans ruckman Shane Mumford which should help them be more competitive. The Giants played the Swans during the preseason and were not disgraced but expect the 2012 premier to be much more serious in the home and away season. The Swans will unveil star recruit Lance Franklin and former Carlton defender Jeremy Laidler in a match they should win easily.

Our best bets: The Swans aren’t offering enough value to back straight up, so the consideration you need to make is will they come out firing and beat the line of 50.5? I think yes. This is paying $1.92 with Sportsbet.

For something a bit different back Swan Tom Mitchell, who is a proven ball magnet, to lead the possessions in Sportsbet’s group 2. The online bookmaker has broken up the players into groups of eight and is offering odds on the highest possession winner. Mitchell is paying $7.50 and will have to overcome the likes of Nick Malceski and Adam Treloar to win you the money,

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 65 points.

Gold Coast ($2.75) vs. Richmond ($1.47)

Where: Metricon Stadium

When: Saturday, 6.40pm Local time

Television: Chanel 7, Fox Footy, 7.30pm Aest

This is a statement game for the Gold Coast. The Suns have shown plenty over the preseason and will fancy causing an upset against the Tigers. They will debut gun youngster Jack Martin while Jaegar O’Meara will be even better this year after another preseason. The Tigers enter this year with big expectations with some even mentioning them as a top four prospect. Their spine, Rance, Chaplin, Cotchin, Vickery and Riewoldt is beginning to look established while their youngsters showed a lot last year, led by Nick Vlastuin. This game should be an absolute belter.

Our best bets: Gold Coast look to be very good value at $2.75 with Sportsbet and have a strong record against Richmond at Metricon Stadium (Centrebet and Sportingbet are offering $2.45). I think this will be the upset of the weekend. Even consider the Gold Coast between 1-39 points at $3.30.

Prediction: Gold Coast by three points.

Carlton $1.62 v Port Adelaide $2.30

Daisy

Dale Thomas as a Magpie.

Where:Etihad Stadium

When: Sunday, 7.40pm

Television: Fox Footy, 7.30pm

Carlton head into the 2014 season with great expectations after securing former Collingwood gun Dale Thomas via free agency. The Blues will be without former captain Chris Judd through injury but in a major boost Jarrad Waite is rumoured to be fit. They will also unleash former Swan Andrejs Everitt. Port Adelaide will find it tougher this year after sliding under the guard of a lot of teams last year. But there is little doubt they have plenty of talent with Chad Wingard, Travis Boak, Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert giving them the nucleus of a good midfield. They are also likely to play tall forward Jay Schulz despite being under an injury cloud.

Our best bets: I think the Blues will win this one comfortably despite Mick Malthouse teams struggling at Etihad Stadium in the past. Back the Blues at $2.30 to win between 1-39 points with Centrebet.

Another sensible bet is to back the Blues at $2.75 to lead at every change with www.Sportingbet.com.au.

Prediction: Carlton by 24 points.


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