Fri, May 24, 2:09am by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues
When/Where: 7:40pm, Saturday 25 May 2013 at the Gabba
Recommended AFL Bookie: www.IASbet.com
The Lions caused a boil over last week, defeating the Bombers in Melbourne. It was a pleasant reprieve for Michael Voss, who has undoubtedly been under extreme pressure after his team have failed to live up to their NAB Cup winning form. It was the Lions first win in Melbourne since Round 13 last year. They take on the Blues at home and they will be bursting with confidence after the victory. The Blues also won their last round match against Port Adelaide. The Blues led from go to whoa against a relentless Power side.
The Brisbane Lions are currently placed in 14th spot on the ladder. Carlton are 4 spots ahead in 10th. Carlton are a rough shot in the premiership market, currently paying $15. The Lions are given no hope at $501.
This match will generate some interest as these are the two sides that met in the pre-season NAB Cup Grand Final.
Last round’s Lions match against the Bombers featured 18 lead changes. Brent Staker was the hero for the Lions as he kicked the goal that gave them victory. It was a good performance from a number of players with Jack Redden (22 touches and 12 tackles), Dayne Zorko (19 touches and 3 goals), Pearce Hanley (19 touches), Jed Adcock (20 touches) and Jonathan Brown (2 goals and 11 marks).
The victory threw up an odd result as the Bombers soundly beat the Lions in numerous important key performance indicators. Brisbane lost out in total possessions (326-398), clearances (28-49) and inside 50s (39-61). One of the only key performance indicators that Brisbane came out on top with from the Bombers match was that they made 23 more tackles – they were aggressive and maintained this aggression for the match. This is what got them through.
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The Carlton victory against Port Adelaide was described as a “scrappy affair”. Port Adelaide showed poor skills and made disastrous turnovers before goal. Carlton took advantage of all these opportunities and this is what steered them to victory.
The Lions will be without suspended key defenders Daniel Merrett and Justin Clarke. Carlton’s forwards, Eddie Betts, Jeff Garlett, Mitch Robinson and Marc Murphy, appear to be potential match winners. Carlton fullback Michael Jamison is matching up with Brisbane forward Jonathan Brown; this will be one of the key match-ups in this clash. Jamison injured his shoulder against St Kilda and played with soreness against Port Adelaide and managed to put in a strong performance in that game.
Some interesting statistics:
The Lions love playing at home and their coach has urged his players to put in an aggressive performance. If Brisbane can bring the same competitiveness and intensity which saw the Lions upset Essendon, they may well win again. Some believe that Carlton still looks a little down on confidence with its ball movement and remains inconsistent within games. The Lions are a much better team at the Gabba and did beat the Blues in the NAB Cup Grand Final because their intensity and pressure was very good.
However, Carlton will also be looking to put pressure on the Lions from the start. The Lions cannot afford to fail in all the key performance areas they failed in against Essendon. Carlton are good at biding their time and taking advantage of an opportunity. In that situation, it may be them pouncing all over victory instead of the Lions.
Carlton have proven they can score points this year and the Lions have lost some of their key defenders. If the defensive pressure the Lions demonstrated last week disappears, Carlton will win.
I am leaning towards Carlton as I think the Lions cannot afford to make the errors they made against Essendon.
In the head to head market, Brisbane are at $2.90 and Carlton are the $1.42 favourites with IASbet.com.
The Lions are a great value option. Look at the line bet at around +15.5 points ($1.91), or even handicap margins at plus 24.5 ($1.55) or plus 39.5 ($1.24) points for multis.
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